April 12, 2019: Non-subscribers update

WeatherTalk monthly operating costs can top $4000.00. Your $5 subscription helps pay for those costs. I work for you.

The $5 will allow you to register up to seven phones!

For $5 a month you can receive the following. You may choose to receive these via your WeatherTalk app or regular text messaging.

Severe weather app/text alerts from my keyboard to your app/cell phone. These are hand typed messages from me to you. During tornado outbreaks, you will receive numerous app/text messages telling you exactly where the tornado is located.

Daily forecast app/texts from my computer to your app/cell phone.
Social media links sent directly to your app/cell phone. When I update the blog, videos, or Facebook you will receive the link.
AWARE emails. These emails keep you well ahead of the storm. They give you several days of lead time before significant weather events.
Direct access to Beau via text and email. Your very own personal meteorologist. I work for you!
Missouri and Ohio Valley centered video updates
Long-range weather videos
Week one, two, three and four temperature and precipitation outlooks.
Monthly outlooks.
Your subscription also will help support several local charities.

Would you like to subscribe? Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com

Typical progression on a severe weather day for subscribers.

Click one of the links below to take you directly to each section.

Storm tracking tools. Radars, lightning, satellite. (I moved this to the bottom)
Go to today’s forecast
Go to the graphic-cast
Go to the severe weather outlook
Go to the weather forecast discussion
Go to the model future-cast radars
Go to videos
Go to weeks one, two, three, and four temperature and precipitation graphics
Spring and summer outlooks. Here are the latest graphics.
Go to Weatherbrains
View some of our charity work. Your subscription dollars help support these causes.

Do you have questions or suggestions? If so, please email me. Beaudodson@usawx.com

This product is for subscribers of WeatherTalk

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

Today: No
.
Tomorrow: Monitor late Saturday night & Sunday for storms.

Locally heavy rain Saturday afternoon and especially Saturday night/Sunday morning. Widespread 0.80″ to 1.60″. Bands of higher totals likely.
Spotty frost Sunday night with lows in the 36 to 40-degree range.
Additional showers and storms are possible by Wednesday night or Thursday.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

Today through Sunday night.

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible. Saturday night and Sunday.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Yes. I am monitoring the risk of intense storms on Sunday afternoon. This would most likely be across parts of Kentucky/Tennessee. For now, confidence is low. The track of the low will be key to any severe weather concerns. Monitor updates.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is Flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Locally heavy rain is likely Saturday night/Sunday morning. If thunderstorms form Sunday afternoon then some locally heavy rain will occur with those, as well.

Monday through Thursday

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Wednesday and perhaps into Thursday.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor updates. I will be monitoring Wednesday/Thursday. For now, the risk of severe weather appears low.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? At this time, no. I will keep an eye on the Wednesday/Thursday system.

Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
Click here

* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

April 12, 2019
Friday’s Forecast: A slight chance of a morning shower over our eastern counties. That would be the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. Any morning clouds will push off to the east. Mostly sunny. Breezy. Cooler.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70° SE MO 64° to 68° South IL 63° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° West KY 64° to 66° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: West and southwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20% Western KY 20% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Any remaining rain will end.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7 High
Sunrise: 6:25 AM
.
Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cooler. Some increase in clouds late at night.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48° SE MO 44° to 46° South IL 40° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 46° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: South becoming north at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 10% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. A slight chance of an isolated shower after 5 AM in the MO Bootheel and NW TN.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:27 PM
Moonrise: 11:55 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
Moonset: 1:53 AM

April 13, 2019
Saturday’s Forecast: Becoming cloudy. Scattered showers along the MO/AR border and KY/TN border before 12 PM. Shower chances will increase from SW to NE during the late morning and afternoon hours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° SE MO 62° to 64° South IL 62° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° West KY 64° to 66° NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 70% Southeast MO 60% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 60% NW TN 70%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered early. Becoming numerous. Greatest coverage along the MO/AR border and the KY/TN border southward. Increasing coverage during the day from north to south.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? During the morning monitor radars. Have a plan B during the afternoon and check radars.
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:24 AM
.
Saturday night Forecast: Rain likely. Some locally heavy rain. Thunderstorms are possible. Storms late at night could be intense.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 52° SE MO 44° to 48° South IL 45° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 48° to 54° NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 100% Southeast MO 100% Southern IL 100% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 100% Western KY 100% NW TN 100%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor severe risk late Saturday night.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset: 7:28 PM
Moonrise: 12:59 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 2:46 AM

April 14, 2019
Sunday’s Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy. Windy. Rain likely during the morning. A thunderstorm is possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. A few storms could be strong over parts of Kentucky/Tennessee. Monitor updates.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium 60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° SE MO 55° to 60° South IL 60° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: Variable winds. Wind direction will depend on the track of the low-pressure center. Winds in the 15 to 25 mph and gusty range.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 66°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 70% Southeast MO 70% IL 70% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70% Western KY 70% NW TN 70%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning. Monitor the risk of strong storms over Kentucky and Tennessee. This will depend on the track of the low.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updates.
UV Index: 3 to 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:22 AM
.
Sunday night Forecast: Remaining rain showers and storms will come to an end. Colder. Clearing overnight. Winds could prevent frost. If the winds die down then patchy frost and fog will be a good possibility.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 36° to 38° SE MO 36° to 38° South IL 36° to 38° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 36° to 38° West KY 36° to 38° NW TN 36° to 38°
Wind direction and speed: West 15 to 30 mph before midnight. West at 6 to 12 mph after midnight.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 38°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 10% Southeast MO 10% Southern IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 20% Western KY 20% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Ending
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Fog and frost.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:29 PM
Moonrise: 2:08 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 3:34 AM

Monday: Morning patchy frost possible. Patchy fog, as well. Mostly sunny. Some passing clouds. Highs in the lower to middle 60’s over IL/KY and middle to upper 60’s over SE MO and NW TN. Lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s. West at 7 to 14 during the day. South at 5 to 10 mph at night.

.
Tuesday: Partly sunny. Breezy PM hours. Warm. Cloudy at night. A 30% chance of showers at night. Highs in the middle 70’s. Lows in the middle to upper 50’s. South and southwest wind at 10 to 20 mph

.
Wednesday: Cloudy. Warm. A chance of scattered showers during the day. A good chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night. Highs in the lower middle 70’s. Lows in the middle to upper 50’s. South and southwest wind at 10 to 20 mph.

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Graphic-cast

.Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

.

Wind forecast

.Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
.

Today and tomorrow: Severe weather is not anticipated. Lightning is possible Saturday afternoon/night.

Sunday through Tuesday: Lightning is possible on Sunday. Severe weather will be possible southeast of the area of low pressure. The track of the low will need to be monitored. Kentucky and Tennessee would have the greatest risk of some thunderstorms. Monitor updates moving forward.

Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for winter storms, ice storms, and severe weather.

Log into your www.weathertalk.com

Click the personal notification settings tab.

Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.

Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type. In other words, melted precipitation totals.

48-hour precipitation outlook.

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

Drier weather today. Cooler, as well.
Rain returns by Saturday afternoon and night. Rain will linger into Sunday afternoon.
Locally heavy rain likely Saturday night/Sunday morning.
I am monitoring thunderstorm chances Sunday afternoon. This is highly dependent on the track of the low-pressure center.
Another chance of rain by Wednesday/Thursday.

Current conditions.

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

Does the forecast require action today or tonight?

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

Forecast discussion.

Friday & Friday night:

It will be cooler today.

A cold front pushed through the region last night/this morning. Cooler air has been moving east/southeast.

Clouds will linger over our eastern counties this morning. They will push off to the east through the morning hours.

Much of the region should see quite a bit of sunshine today. The winds won’t be as strong as they were yesterday. Many areas experienced 30 to 50 mph gusts.

It was quite windy here on the hill at the Weather Observatory. We had a few gusts between 45 and 50 mph.

Weekend

Yet another storms system will arrive by Saturday and Sunday. This system moves up from the Gulf of Mexico. That means it could have quite a bit of moisture with it. Locally heavy rain is likely. I am anticipating a widespread 0.80″ to 1.60″. Locally higher.

We may have some showers as early as Saturday morning. Showers are more likely, however, as we move through Saturday afternoon, Saturday night, and Sunday morning.

Widespread rain will push back into our region from Arkansas and Tennessee. Some of the rain could be locally heavy.

Rain totals of 0.80″ to 1.6″ will be possible. Locally higher. The heaviest activity will likely be Saturday night/Sunday morning.

Some thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon. This will depend on the track of the low and speed of the low-pressure center pushing northeast.

I will be monitoring trends in guidance. If the low tracks too far west then the risk of severe weather rises. The greatest chance of severe weather will be east/southeast of the low-pressure center. Parts of Kentucky and Tennessee may be outlined in a severe weather risk. Still some time to monitor.

Clouds will help keep temperatures cooler both Saturday and Sunday.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.

Here is the upcoming weekend event on the GFS.

This system moves up from the Gulf of Mexico. That means it could have quite a bit of moisture with it. Locally heavy rain is likely. I am anticipating a widespread 0.80″ to 1.60″. Locally higher.

We may have some showers as early as Saturday morning. Showers are more likely, however, as we move through Saturday afternoon, Saturday night, and Sunday morning.

The heaviest activity will likely be Saturday night/Sunday morning.

The rain will taper SW to NE on Sunday. Clouds will help keep temperatures cooler both Saturday and Sunday.

Timestamp upper left.

Here is the high res NAM 3K model.

Here is the NAM model. Again, you see rain overspreading our region from the south. Yes, that blue represents snow across parts of Missouri and Illinois!

Yet another system will bring rain back into the region Tuesday night into Thursday. The track of the center low-pressure will be key to where strong thunderstorms occur. It is still a bit early to know the exact path.

Dates to monitor for precipitation.

This product is for subscribers of WeatherTalk

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

*****
*****

VIDEO UPDATES

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

These are bonus videos.

I pay BAMwx to help with videos.

They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.

This product is for subscribers of WeatherTalk

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

The Ohio Valley video

This product is for subscribers of WeatherTalk

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

Long Range video

This product is for subscribers of WeatherTalk

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

The Missouri Valley

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
.

This product is for subscribers of WeatherTalk

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

This product is for subscribers of WeatherTalk

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

This product is for subscribers of WeatherTalk

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

This product is for subscribers of WeatherTalk

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

This product is for subscribers of WeatherTalk

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

Precipitation outlook

This product is for subscribers of WeatherTalk

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

Preliminary summer outlook

This product is for subscribers of WeatherTalk

Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com

Click here to go to the top of the page

Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

.

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

Did you know that you can find me on Twitter? Click here to view my Twitter weather account.

Not receiving app/text messages?

Make sure you have the correct app/text options turned on. Do that under the personal notification settings tab at www.weathertalk.com. Red is off. Green is on.
USE THE APP. Verizon and ATT have been throttling text messages. The app receives the same messages instantly. Texts can take longer. Please, use the app. It is under Beau Dodson Weather in the app stores.

A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

Click here to go to the top of the page

WeatherBrains Episode 690

Tonight’s WeatherBrains features the on-air weather team at WCBI-TV in Columbus, MS. Joining us are meteorologists Keith Gibson, Jacob Dickey, Jacob Riley and Alex Puckett. Gentleman, welcome to the show!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: