April 11, 2019: Non-subscribers update

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Today: Yes. Strong gradient winds will top 45 mph. These winds will be because of the deep area of low pressure passing to our west/northwest. In addition to the gradient winds, intense thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon but more likely tonight. A few storms could produce damaging winds. The tornado risk is low. The hail risk is low. Lightning will be possible. I will send out text/app messages if need be. Monitor updates.
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Tomorrow: No

Rain Thursday night. Mostly 0.40 to 0.80″. Bands of greater than one inch are likely in areas where the front slows a tad.
Locally heavy rain Saturday afternoon and especially Saturday night/Sunday morning. Widespread 0.80″ to 1.60″. Bands of higher totals likely.
Spotty frost Sunday night with lows in the 36 to 40-degree range.
Additional showers and storms are possible by Wednesday night or Thursday.

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Today through Saturday night.

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible mainly Thursday night. Lightning is possible Saturday night.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Yes. Some storms could be intense late this afternoon and more likely tonight. Lightning and damaging wind are the main concerns. A small tornado risk. Isolated lightning is possible Saturday night.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is Flash flooding in the forecast? No.

Sunday through Wednesday

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Saturday night into Sunday night.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor updates. Severe storms can’t be ruled out over KY/TN on Sunday.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? Low-risk Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. I will be monitoring Saturday night into Sunday night for locally heavy rain. Monitor updates.

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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

April 11, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast: Most of the rain will occur tonight. Strong and gusty gradient winds. Warm. A mix of sun and clouds. Increasing clouds through the day. A slight chance of a thunderstorm after 3 PM over southeast Missouri.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 84° SE MO 76° to 84° South IL 76° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82° West KY 78° to 84° NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: South at 25 to 45 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 30% IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 10% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. A few showers and storms may form by late afternoon in the Missouri Ozarks. Most areas will remain dry into late this afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Strong gradient winds could cause damage.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 High
Sunrise: 6:27 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: A band of showers and thunderstorms will be pushing across the region. Some storms could be intense with high winds. Clearing west to east late. Colder. Windy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48° SE MO 43° to 46° South IL 48° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° West KY 50° to 55° NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to west at 15 to 35 mph with higher gusts likely.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 52°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 60% Southeast MO 60% Southern IL 70% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80% Western KY 70% NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous,
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Strong gradient winds. Lightning. Locally heavy downpours. Some storms could be intense.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor radars.
Sunset: 7:26 PM
Moonrise: 10:56 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 12:54 AM

April 12, 2019
Friday’s Forecast: A slight chance of a morning shower over our eastern counties. That would be the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. Any morning clouds will push off to the east. Mostly sunny. Breezy. Cooler.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 65° to 70° SE MO 64° to 68° South IL 63° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° West KY 64° to 66° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: West and southwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7 High
Sunrise: 6:25 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Colder.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48° SE MO 42° to 44° South IL 42° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° West KY 44° to 46° NW TN 46° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Northerly 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:27 PM
Moonrise: 11:55 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
Moonset: 1:53 AM

April 13, 2019
Saturday’s Forecast: Becoming cloudy. A slight chance of showers before noon. Shower chances will increase from SW to NE during the late morning and afternoon hours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° SE MO 63° to 66° South IL 62° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° West KY 64° to 66° NW TN 65° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 60% Southeast MO 40% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 60% NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Greatest coverage along the MO/AR border and the KY/TN border southward. Increasing coverage during the day from north to south.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? During the morning monitor radars. Have a plan B during the afternoon and check radars.
UV Index: 3 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:24 AM
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Saturday night Forecast: Rain likely. Some locally heavy rain. A rumble of thunder.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 52° SE MO 44° to 48° South IL 45° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° West KY 48° to 54° NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 100% Southeast MO 100% Southern IL 100% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 100% Western KY 100% NW TN 100%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset: 7:28 PM
Moonrise: 12:59 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
Moonset: 2:46 AM

Sunday: Rain likely in the morning. A rumble of thunder possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon (monitor the risk of strong storms in KY/TN) Turning colder Sunday night. Windy. Highs in the 54 to 62-degree range. Lows in the l36 to 40 over northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois. Southern seven counties 37 to 40. Western KY 37 to 40. Missouri Bootheel 37 to 40. Northwest Tennessee 37 to 40. West at 15 to 25 during the day. West at 7 to 14 mph at night.

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Monday: Mostly sunny. Some passing clouds. Highs in the middle to upper 60’s. Lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s. West at 15 to 25 during the day. West at 7 to 14 mph at night.

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Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Warm. Some passing clouds. Highs in the middle 70’s. Lows in the middle to upper 50’s. South and southwest wind at 10 to 20 mph

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

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Wind forecast

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Today and tomorrow: A thin band of thunderstorms is likely to develop Thursday evening into Thursday night. A few of the thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts. There is a low-end severe risk. Monitor updates.

Friday through Tuesday: Lightning is possible Saturday night and Sunday. Kentucky and Tennessee should monitor Sunday updates. Some storms could be intense ahead of the cold front and southeast of the low pressure center. The track of the low will be key.

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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type. In other words, melted precipitation totals.

48-hour precipitation outlook.

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.

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Another warm day.
High winds today could top 40 to 50 mph.
A thin band of storms this evening and tonight. Some storms could produce damaging wind gusts.
Cooler Friday into the weekend.
Widespread rain spreads back into the region Saturday afternoon and night. Rain and storms continue into Sunday. Afternoon storms could be intense over KY/TN.

Current conditions.

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

Does the forecast require action today or tonight?

Yes. Strong non-thunderstorm gradient winds will occur today. Some wind gusts will top 50 mph.

Yes. Monitor updates this evening and tonight. A few storms could produce strong winds.

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Forecast discussion.

Today into Friday:

A warm day is on tap for the region Another great day to be outdoors. Highs today will rise into the upper 70’s over much of the region. Some of you will hit the lower 80’s. We will have a mix of sun and clouds.

Winds will pick up throughout the day. Southerly winds will increase to 20 to 40+ mph. This will be in response to a deep/historic low-pressure center in the Central United States.

Some locations could receive 50+ mph wind gusts. This could cause some tree damage and power line damage.

Here is the NAM wind gust animation map. This won’t be exact, of course. It just gives you an idea of what the guidance is showing as this deep area of low pressure tightens the pressure gradient over our local area.

Strong gradient winds today!

Very strong upper-level jet stream winds will develop over the region into Thursday night.

This will help pull moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Moisture will be somewhat limited. That is good news. If this system had more moisture to work with then a tornado outbreak could have occurred.

As it stands, dew points will be marginal for severe thunderstorm development. A few storms could produce damaging winds. There is a non-zero tornado risk. A low risk.

I will be sending out app/text messages if need be. Monitor updates.

The time-frame of most concern for thunderstorm activity?

I will be monitoring the 7 PM to 3 AM time-frame. Beginning first over southeast Missouri and then moving eastward.

I am expecting a squall line/line of thunderstorms to form across our region by evening. See future-cast radars below.

The system will move out of our region by late Thursday night and Friday morning.

Temperatures will fall behind the cold front.

You can see that on this temperature animation from the GFS model guidance.

Weekend

Any remaining showers should have pushed east of the area by Friday morning. Our far eastern counties may still have some clouds and perhaps a shower. Overall, Friday into Saturday morning will be dry and cooler. It appears we should avoid frost Friday night/Saturday morning.

Yet another storms system will arrive by Saturday and Sunday. Widespread rain will push back into our region from Arkansas and Tennessee. Some of the rain could be locally heavy.

Rain totals of 0.80″ to 1.6″ will be possible. Locally higher.

The low should track over us or to our east/southeast. If that happens then the risk of severe weather will remain low for most of the area. Areas east of the cold front and southeast of the low could have severe storms. Monitor updates.

The severe weather risk will increase if the low tracks further west. For now, I have the low staying far enough east to keep the severe risk out of our area. Monitor updates.

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Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.

Our cold front continues to slow its eastward progress.

Over the last 72 hours, the system has slowed by several hours.

It appears our best chance of showers and thunderstorms won’t arrive until the evening and overnight hours.

A few storms could form ahead of the line. We will need to monitor that part of the forecast.

Overall, this will be a fast-moving line of storms. A few storms could produce wind damage. There is a low-end severe risk. Worth monitoring but I wouldn’t cancel any plans.

Let me show you a few model future-cast radar animations.

This is the GFS model guidance animation. This is the Thursday evening/night event.

Timestamp upper left.

Click to enlarge.

Here is the NAM model guidance.

Notice both the GFS and the NAM quickly develop a line of thunderstorms over our local area. Not everyone, however, receives rain. It is possible that portions of southeast Missouri remain dry as the front passes eastward. This will need to be monitored.

This will be a narrow band of showers and storms that cross portions of the region.

Damaging wind is the main concern.

Timestamp upper left.

This next one is the SPC WRF model. A high-resolution model that typically does quite well with thunderstorm events.

All the models show the same thing. A thin line of showers and thunderstorms forming when the front hits the higher dew point numbers.

The system has slowed some. It now looks like a Thursday night event.

Timestamp upper left.

And here is the upcoming weekend event on the GFS.

This system moves up from the Gulf of Mexico. That means it could have quite a bit of moisture with it.

This event is still several days away. I will be monitoring trends in guidance. Moderate rain is possible if the low tracks over our region.

Severe weather appears unlikely with it.

We may have some showers as early as Saturday morning. Showers are more likely, however, as we move through Saturday afternoon, Saturday night, and Sunday morning.

The rain will taper SW to NE on Sunday. Clouds will help keep temperatures cooler both Saturday and Sunday.

Timestamp upper left.

Dates to monitor for precipitation.

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Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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WeatherBrains Episode 690

Tonight’s WeatherBrains features the on-air weather team at WCBI-TV in Columbus, MS. Joining us are meteorologists Keith Gibson, Jacob Dickey, Jacob Riley and Alex Puckett. Gentleman, welcome to the show!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: