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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
FROST FORECAST:
Frost update for the orchards/others.
Monday night -No concerns for frost
Tuesday night – Monitor updates
Wednesday night – No concerns for frost
Thursday night – No concerns for frost
Monday Night – Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms coming to an end.
Temperatures: Lows in the 34 to 38 northern counties and 38 to 44 degree range for southern counties
Winds: Winds becoming northwest and north at 10-20 mph before 10 pm. Then northwest and north at 4-8 mph late.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60% early and mainly over our eastern and southern counties.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to widespread (especially southern half of the region)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? A few remaining showers.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible.
Tuesday – Some morning clouds and then becoming partly cloudy.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 50s
Winds: North and northeast winds at 6-12 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday Night – Clearing and cold. Frost possible. Some uncertainty on frost potential on Tuesday night. Monitor updates.
Temperatures: Lows in the 34-38 degree range.
Winds: Winds north and northeast at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Monitoring for frost. Otherwise, none.
Wednesday – Mostly sunny and cool. Some high clouds during the afternoon hours.
Temperatures: High temperatures from 62-66 degrees.
Winds: East and northeast winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday Night – Partly to mostly cloudy. A chance for showers.
Temperatures: Lows from 44-48 degrees.
Winds: Winds northeast at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways. Mainly the southern half of the region.
Thursday – Some clouds. Mild. A chance for showers.
Temperatures: High temperatures 64-68 degrees
Winds: Northeast/east winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible.
Thursday Night – Partly to mostly cloudy. A chance for showers.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Winds: Winds east at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways
Friday – Partly sunny. A slight chance for showers. Warm.
Temperatures: High temperatures of 62 to 66 degrees. If the disturbance moves out faster then temperatures will be warmer on Friday.
Winds: Southeast winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways. Otherwise, none.
Friday Night – Partly to mostly cloudy. A chance for a shower.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s
Winds: Winds south and southeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways
Saturday – Partly cloudy. Slight chance for a shower.
Temperatures: High temperatures 66-72 degrees. If the disturbance lingers longer than anticipated then temperatures might not be as warm on Saturday. Keep that in mind.
Winds: South winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Likely none
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: Winds south and southeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Partly to mostly sunny. Warmer. Spring. A chance for late afternoon showers or thunderstorms towards Poplar Bluff, Missouri.
Temperatures: High temperatures 72-78 degrees.
Winds: East and southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% far western counties of southeast Missouri
Coverage of precipitation? None to isoalted.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Monitoring precipitation chances for the western parts of southeast Missouri
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: Winds south at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways and lightning.
Monday – Partly sunny. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: High temperatures 72-76 degrees.
Winds: Southeast and south winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to perhaps scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Rain comes to an end Monday night
- Another cold snap Tuesday night
- MUCH warmer weather in the long range. Spring, is that you?
Quite a bit of shower and thunderstorm activity moved through the region on Sunday night and Monday. The heaviest totals have been over our northern counties. As of this writing, showers and storms were still tracking across the region.
Tuesday will bring some morning clouds and then clearing. Cool.
We have another cold shot on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. I am expecting overnight lows to dip into the 30s. The winds are forecast to blow at 4-8 mph on Tuesday night. This could help mitigate frost chances. However, if winds die down then frost would be possible. Monitor if you have concerns.
THE BIG WEATHER STORY 🙂 will be much warmer air later this week into the weekend. And, the warm air might stick around into at least part of next week.
The one concern I have will be cloud cover. Guidance today is starting to show more clouds from Wednesday night into Sunday. If this happens then you can shave several degrees off of these maps.
The EC guidance indicates a daily chance for scattered showers from Wednesday night right on into Monday. This will need to be monitored.
Will keep it short and sweet! Here are the high temperature maps for Thursday through Monday.
Thursday high temperatures
Friday high temperatures
Saturday high temperatures
Sunday high temperatures
Monday high temperatures
Marion, Illinois (graphic below)
Here are some numbers from the GFS guidance. High and low temperatures for the next 16 days.
Paducah, Kentucky (graphic below)
Poplar Bluff, Missouri
Owensboro, Kentucky
I want to let everyone know the following:
NOTICE on Credit Card statements for WeatherTalk. A number of cards were NOT charged in February and March. Your statement will say pending. You were never charged. Today all of the cards finally processed.
You were only charged once. Even though the “PENDING” charge would have shown up on previous statements. It was never processed.
Today it was processed.
If you signed up for monthly then it is possible you will see February, March, and April’s charges on this months statement. But, again you were never charged previously.
There was an error card in the batches and it caused all transactions on three separate days (in February and March) to be kicked out of the system. Thus, you were never charged.
I have had a couple of people ask me about this. Thinking they were charged multiple times. The only people who would see multiple charges are the ones with a monthly billing plan.
Anyone who paid up front for an entire year was only charged once. Again, you might see pending on previous statements. But, pending means you were not charged.
If you have any concerns then private message me.
Thank you and sorry for any confusion or inconvenience.
Beau
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Monday night – Thunderstorms are possible early. Not anticipating severe weather.
Tuesday – Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday – Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday – Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday – Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday – Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday – Severe weather is not anticipated
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Added mention of showers through the extended
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Tuesday night – Monitor updates. Temperatures should dip into the 30s late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.
Wednesday night – No concerns
Thunderstorms are possible Monday evening. Otherwise, no major concerns.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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Showers will come to an end on Monday night and Tuesday morning.
The EC guidance is showing some slight chances for showers from Wednesday night into Sunday. This will need to be monitored.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
