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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section.
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Tuesday through Tuesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A small chance of lightning today near the KY/TN border. Lightning is possible Wednesday through Tuesday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. The remnants of Laura may move into our region Friday and Saturday. A cold front will also be near the region over the weekend into early next week. These weather features could produce damaging wind. Tropical systems occasionally produce tornadoes. For now, I am simply monitoring the system. Confidence in severe weather occurring remains low. Monitor.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Flash flooding will be possible if Hurricane Laura weakens and moves into our local area. For now, the bulk of that rain is forecast to move into the region Friday and Saturday. There remain questions about the exact track and timing. There are remain questions about amounts. For now, if the system tracks over our region, then one to three inches of rain would be possible in some counties. Locally higher. A cold front will also approach the region over the weekend into early next week. That also would enhance rain totals. For now, confidence in the flooding threat remains low. Monitor updates.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Possible. Heat index between 95 and 100 degrees today into Thursday.
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August 25, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Patchy morning fog. Mostly sunny. Hot and humid. A slight chance of a thunderstorm near the KY/TN State line.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 95° SE MO 92° to 95° South IL 92° to 94° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 92° West KY 92° to 95° NW TN 92° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: East at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 94° to 98°
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms. Slight chance of wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:20 AM
Sunset: 7:33 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° MO 66° to 72° South IL 66° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° West KY 68° to 72° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:46 PM
Moonset: 12:01 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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August 26, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Hot and humid. An afternoon thunderstorm will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 92° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 86° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 92° West KY 86° to 92° NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 95°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:21 AM
Sunset: 7:32 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mainly during the evening.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° MO 70° to 72° South IL 70° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 72° West KY 70° to 72° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 2:54 PM
Moonset: 12:00 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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August 27, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90° SE MO 86° to 88° South IL 86° to 88° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 88° West KY 86° to 88° NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 90°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:22 AM
Sunset: 7:30 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° MO 70° to 72° South IL 70° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 72° West KY 70° to 72° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Moonrise: 3:57 PM
Moonset: 12:46 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous.
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August 28, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 86° SE MO 83° to 86° South IL 83° to 86° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° West KY 83° to 86° NW TN 83° to 86°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 86°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:23 AM
Sunset: 7:29 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 72° MO 66° to 70° South IL 66° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° West KY 66° to 70° NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Moonrise: 4:54 PM
Moonset: 1:38 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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August 29, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° SE MO 83° to 86° South IL 83° to 86° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° West KY 83° to 86° NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 10 mph. Gusty, at times.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 85°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:24 AM
Sunset: 7:27 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° MO 66° to 68° South IL 66° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° West KY 66° to 68° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Moonrise: 5:44 PM
Moonset: 2:35 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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August 30, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 85° SE MO 80° to 85° South IL 80° to 85° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 85° West KY 80° to 85° NW TN 80° to 85°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 85°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:25 AM
Sunset: 7:26 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° MO 66° to 68° South IL 66° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° West KY 66° to 68° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Moonrise: 6:27 PM
Moonset: 3:35 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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August 30, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 85° SE MO 80° to 85° South IL 80° to 85° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 85° West KY 80° to 85° NW TN 80° to 85°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 85°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:25 AM
Sunset: 7:24 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° MO 66° to 68° South IL 66° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° West KY 66° to 68° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Moonrise: 7:03 PM
Moonset: 4:37 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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August 31, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 85° SE MO 80° to 84° South IL 80° to 84° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 84° West KY 80° to 84° NW TN 80° to 85°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 85°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:26 AM
Sunset: 7:23 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° MO 66° to 68° South IL 66° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° West KY 66° to 68° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Moonrise: 7:35 PM
Moonset: 5:38 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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What is the UV index?
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- Hot and muggy.
- Thunderstorms are possible, especially Wednesday into the weekend.
- Locally heavy rain.
Click to enlarge the graphics.
Remember, this is an average across our local area. The county by county will vary. See Beau’s detailed forecast above for more details.
Click graphics to enlarge them.
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through August 31st: The remnants of Laura may move into our region Friday and Saturday. A cold front will also be near the region over the weekend into early next week. These weather features could produce damaging wind. Tropical systems occasionally produce tornadoes. For now, I am simply monitoring the system. Confidence in severe weather occurring remains low. Monitor.
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated August 25, 2020
The main concern will be monitoring the track of Hurricane Laura. This tropical system should move into Louisiana and Texas later this week. It will then need to be monitored as it moves north and eventually east/northeast. This could bring heavy rain into our region.
A cold front will push into the region this coming weekend. It will be the focus of thunderstorms, as well.
Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store. Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Hot and humid.
- Monitoring thunderstorm chances.
- Tracking Hurricane Laura
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Hot and muggy weather will be with us today into the end of the week. Our best hope for cooler weather will be clouds and thunderstorms.
Dew points will rise into the 70s this week. That is uncomfortable. Air you wear. Sticky weather. Summer weather!
Chances of thunderstorms today will be minimal. Perhaps one or two near the Kentucky/Tennessee border. Low chance.
Scattered thunderstorms will develop Wednesday as the remnants of tropical storm Marco pushes northward from the Gulf of Mexico. This will increase our thunderstorm chances. Scattered. Locally heavy rain will occur in thunderstorms. Gusty wind, as well.
Scattered thunderstorms will be with us Wednesday night into early next week.
During that same time period, two weather features will impact the region.
One will be the remnants of Hurricane Laura. The exact track of that system will need to be monitored.
For now, it appears the system will move into our region Friday and Saturday. Locally heavy rain and gusty wind will accompany the system. If the center of the system passes over our region then we will need to also monitor the chance of short-lived tornadoes. Not uncommon in dying tropical systems.
A swatch of one to three inches of rain will accompany Laura (in our area). There could be higher totals.
A cold front will also push north to south across the region over the weekend into early next week.
This cold front will help focus locally heavy rain, as well.
The exact placement of Laura and the cold front will determine how much rain your location receives.
If the cold front pushes far enough south and Laura tracks south then portions of our region may receive less than 0.50″ of rain. If it passes right over our region and they both line up then someone could easily receive more than five inches of rain.
There are still too many questions for certainties.
At this point, the National Hurricane Center doesn’t even know where Laura will come ashore. Thus, we also don’t know the final outcome in our local area.
I would advise everyone to monitor updates moving forward. Again, it appears the main concern will be Thursday night/Friday into the weekend.
I will need to monitor these. If they move north into our region then heavy rain will occur.
National Hurricane Center website
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 64 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers August 25th through August 31st
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 63 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
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This outlook covers September 1st through September 6th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 63 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 1.80″
This outlook covers September 8th through the 21st
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Precipitation outlook
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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Click to enlarge all of the images below
These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.
NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.
Click the image below to enlarge it.
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Summer outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
June through August
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Click on the images to enlarge them
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September Temperature Outlook (prelim)
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September Precipitation Outlook (prelim)
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October temperature outlook.
October precipitation outlook.
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November Temperature Outlook
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November Precipitation Outlook
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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