.
Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section.
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
.
7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
.
.
.
Monday through Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Wednesday through Sunday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. I will be watching the eventual track of Hurricane Laura. It could bring severe weather to our region. It is too soon to know certainties. That would occur Thursday into Saturday (if it occurs, at all).
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Flash flooding will be possible if Hurricane Laura weakens and moves into our local area. That would occur Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. It is too early to know the eventual track. Monitor updates.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
..
.
August 24, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few clouds. Warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 95° SE MO 90° to 95° South IL 90° to 94° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 92° West KY 90° to 95° NW TN 90° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 96°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:20 AM
Sunset: 7:34 PM
.
Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70° MO 66° to 70° South IL 66° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° West KY 66° to 68° NW TN 68° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:36 PM
Moonset: 11:20 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
.
August 25, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Patchy morning fog. Mostly sunny. Hot and humid.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 95° SE MO 90° to 95° South IL 90° to 94° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90° to 92° West KY 90° to 95° NW TN 90° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: East at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 92° to 96°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:20 AM
Sunset: 7:33 PM
.
Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° MO 66° to 70° South IL 66° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° West KY 66° to 70° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:46 PM
Moonset: 12:01 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
.
August 26, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Hot. An afternoon thunderstorm will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 92° SE MO 88° to 92° South IL 86° to 92° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 92° West KY 86° to 92° NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 95°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:21 AM
Sunset: 7:32 PM
.
Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mainly during the evening.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° MO 70° to 72° South IL 70° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 72° West KY 70° to 72° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 2:54 PM
Moonset: 12:00 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
.
August 27, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90° SE MO 86° to 88° South IL 86° to 88° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 88° West KY 86° to 88° NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 90°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:22 AM
Sunset: 7:30 PM
.
Thursday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° MO 70° to 72° South IL 70° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 72° West KY 70° to 72° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Moonrise: 3:57 PM
Moonset: 12:46 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous.
.
August 28, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 90° SE MO 86° to 88° South IL 86° to 88° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 86° to 88° West KY 86° to 88° NW TN 86° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 90°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty wind. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:23 AM
Sunset: 7:29 PM
.
Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° MO 66° to 68° South IL 66° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° West KY 66° to 68° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Moonrise: 4:54 PM
Moonset: 1:38 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
.
August 29, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 85° SE MO 80° to 85° South IL 80° to 85° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 85° West KY 80° to 85° NW TN 80° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: North at 10 mph. Gusty, at times.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 85°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:24 AM
Sunset: 7:27 PM
.
Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° MO 66° to 68° South IL 66° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° West KY 66° to 68° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Moonrise: 5:44 PM
Moonset: 2:35 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
.
August 30, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 85° SE MO 80° to 85° South IL 80° to 85° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 85° West KY 80° to 85° NW TN 80° to 85°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 85°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:25 AM
Sunset: 7:26 PM
.
Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° MO 66° to 68° South IL 66° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° West KY 66° to 68° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Moonrise: 6:27 PM
Moonset: 3:35 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
.
August 30, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 85° SE MO 80° to 85° South IL 80° to 85° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 85° West KY 80° to 85° NW TN 80° to 85°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 85°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:25 AM
Sunset: 7:24 PM
.
Monday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° MO 66° to 68° South IL 66° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° West KY 66° to 68° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Moonrise: 7:03 PM
Moonset: 4:37 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
.
What is the UV index?
.
.
- Warming trend.
- Rain chances ramping up today and tomorrow.
- Monitoring the tropics late next week.
Click to enlarge the graphics.
Remember, this is an average across our local area. The county by county will vary. See Beau’s detailed forecast above for more details.
Click graphics to enlarge them.
.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
.
Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
.
.
.
Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
.
.
Today through August 31st: I am monitoring Thursday through Saturday. Hurricane Laura will need to be monitored as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico. It could eventually track into our region with gusty wind, heavy rain, and even a tornado threat. That is highly dependent on track and strength. It is too early to know details. Monitor updates.
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
.
Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
.
.
The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.
48-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.
72-hour precipitation outlook.
.
..
Weather advice:
Updated August 24, 2020
The main concern will be monitoring the track of the tropical systems in the Gulf of Mexico.
Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store. Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
.
Weather Discussion
-
- Hot and a bit humid.
- Tropical weather needs to be monitored.
.
Hot and humid weather will be with us today and the last through at least Thursday.
Some scattered thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon into the weekend.
The real question will be the eventual track of the hurricanes.
Weather changes arrive as we watch two tropical systems in the Gulf of Mexico.
There still remain questions about their eventual strength and track.
Laura is of more concern to our region. That is the one that will be moving into the Gulf of Mexico today and tomorrow.
It will then track north and northwest. Where it comes ashore will be important to the eventual track.
Many models do bring rain into our region as early as Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.
It is still too early to know just how organized this will still be if it passes through our region. The end result could be heavy rain and isolated tornadoes.
Let’s keep an eye on it.
I am tracking two tropical systems. Here they are. It is WAY early to know the strength of these systems and computer models do a horrible job on that topic.
I will need to monitor these. If they move north into our region then heavy rain will occur.
National Hurricane Center website
.
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
.
What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
.
This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Scattered storms possible Wednesday onward.
For now, the future-cast radars are of no value because they are not handling the tropics all that well.
.
This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Scattered storms possible Wednesday onward.
For now, the future-cast radars are of no value because they are not handling the tropics all that well.
.
This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Scattered storms possible Wednesday onward.
For now, the future-cast radars are of no value because they are not handling the tropics all that well.
.
This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Scattered storms possible Wednesday onward.
For now, the future-cast radars are of no value because they are not handling the tropics all that well.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Scattered storms possible Wednesday onward.
For now, the future-cast radars are of no value because they are not handling the tropics all that well.
.
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.
Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 87 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 64 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers August 24th through August 30th
Click on the image to expand it.
.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 63 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
.
This outlook covers August 31st through September 6th
Click on the image to expand it.
.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
.
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 63 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 1.80″
This outlook covers September 4th through the 17th
.
Precipitation outlook
1
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Click to enlarge all of the images below
These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.
NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.
Click the image below to enlarge it.
.
Summer outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
June through August
Temperature departures
Precipitation
.
Click on the images to enlarge them
.
September Temperature Outlook (prelim)
.
September Precipitation Outlook (prelim)
.
October temperature outlook.
October precipitation outlook.
.
Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
.
Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
.
Live lightning data: Click here.
.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
.
.
Find Beau on Facebook! Click the banner.
.