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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
What do the confidence levels mean?
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This forecast covers the counties in red.
This forecast covers the counties in red.
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There is considerable debate about rain chances Wednesday-Sunday. This will need to be monitored. A series of disturbances will pass to our north. Low confidence on timing and placement of rain chances as we move through the week and weekend.
Another note: A low probability of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It means that the odds of rain at your location are X percent. At least that is how I am doing my probabilities. For example, a 30% chance for a thunderstorm actually means thunderstorms are likely to dot radar. But, the odds are that your location will remain dry.
Also, keep in mind that these are starting point numbers. They will likely need to be adjusted as we move forward and the details become clearer.
Rest of this afternoon
Wednesday – A mix of sun and clouds. Thunderstorms likely. Some storms could be severe with damaging winds.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours in storms. Some storms could become severe with damaging winds.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Higher near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point? 40% in the morning. Increasing to 60% during the afternoon.
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous
Is severe weather expected? Severe storms can’t be ruled out. Damaging winds being the primary concern.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
Sunrise will be at 5:41 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 7-9. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 8:03 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:56 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm. Humid. Scattered very heavy thunderstorms are possible. Flash flooding possible. Monitor updates in case storms develop and train over the same areas.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours in storms. If storms train then flash flooding could occur. Isolated high wind possible with storms Wednesday night.
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point? 60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous. Storms will likely train over the same areas. VERY heavy rainfall totals possible for some.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Small overnight risk for high winds. Main concern is flash flooding.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
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Thursday – Partly sunny. Hot. Muggy. Scattered thunderstorms possible. There could be another line of storms approach from the northwest. Monitor updates. High winds possible in storms. Flash flooding possible if storms train over the same areas.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways, lightning, and heavy downpours if storms form. High winds possible in storms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-94 degree range. Heat index 96 to 107
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point? 40%-50%. Subject to adjustments.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to numerous
Is severe weather expected? Possible. Damaging wind threat. Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Sunrise will be at 5:42 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:17 p.m.
UV index will be 9-11. High.
Moonrise will be at 9:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:34 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. Thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Isolated wet roadways and lightning. Heavy rain possible. Strong winds in storms.
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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Friday – Partly sunny. Warm and muggy. Scattered storms again possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours if storms form.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-92 degree range. Isolated higher temperatures possible.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Sunrise will be at 5:42 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 8-11. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 10:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:08 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. Very warm. Humid. Thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours where storms form.
Temperatures: Lows in the 72-76 degree range
Winds: Winds west/southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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Saturday – Some clouds. Warm. Humid. Thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning if storms form. If storms form they could produce heavy rain.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range
Winds: West and northwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous. Monitoring a system moving in from the northwest.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunrise will be at 5:43 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 5-7. Moderate. Perhaps high if we don’t have many clouds.
Moonrise will be at 11:04 a.m. and moonset will be at 11:41 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Likely none. If we can get thunderstorms out of here by Saturday then Saturday night should be dry. Low confidence.
Temperatures: Lows in the 66-72 degree range
Winds: Winds north and northwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point? 30%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Sunday – Partly sunny. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours if storms do form.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph. Winds becoming variable in direction.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Sunrise will be at 5:44 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:16 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at –:– a.m. and moonset will be at 11:57 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. An evening thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: Winds north at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
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Monday – Partly sunny. A scattered thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Heavy downpours if storms do form.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range
Winds: Variable winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point? 30%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise will be at 5:44 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:15 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 12:52 a.m. and moonset will be at 12:11 a.m. Waxing Crescent.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. An evening thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 74-78 degree range
Winds: Winds variable at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation at any given point? 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Tuesday – Partly sunny. A thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise will be at 5:45 a.m. and sunset will be at 8:15 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 1:47 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:42 a.m. Waxing Gibbons.
Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: Lows in the 70-74 degree range
Winds: Winds southwest at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
More information on the UV index. Click here.
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate.
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Thunderstorm chances
- Warm and humid
Welcome to the middle of the week.
A complex of thunderstorms moved into our northern counties from central and northern Illinois earlier today. This line has been sagging southward and producing torrential downpours, lightning, and strong winds. Meanwhile, another thunderstorm complex developed over eastern Kansas overnight. And, this complex has been moving eastward across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas.
Here was the 7 am Wednesday morning satellite view. I talk about MCS’s quite frequently. And, here is what they look like on satellite. Those red colors are very cold cloud tops. Cumulonimbus clouds. Very tall thunderstorm tops. Tops on these storms can reach 50,000′ or more.
Here is what radar looked like at 7 am on Wednesday. Radar shows the rain that is falling from those tall thunderstorms.
These two MCS’s were controlling our region weather on Wednesday afternoon. And, will influence our weather into Thursday morning.
The systems will leave boundaries over our area once they fade away. And, these boundaries can be the focus of new thunderstorm development. Image a boundary as an area where winds and temperatures may vary just slightly from the air around it. It is these areas where new storms can develop.
The main concern for the rest of Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night will be thunderstorms. Some strong storms, as well. Locally heavy rain is also a concern.
Some of the guidance wants to develop storms on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. If these storms were to form then they would be slow to move and could produce copious amounts of rain. But, we first need to see if they actually do develop. Not a sure bet.
If storms train over the same areas then flash flooding will occur on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Some places could pick up more than four inches of rain.
We will remain in a warm/hot and humid air mass over the coming days. Each day we will see scattered showers and thunderstorms develop. Especially during the afternoon hours (peak heating). And, many storms will weaken after sunset. A few storms could also develop during the overnight hours. But, these would probably be more scattered. Storms over the next few days will produce heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
PWAT values are going to range from 1.6 to 2.3″ over the coming days. Plenty of moisture for thunderstorms to tap into. Thus, torrential downpours continue to be a concern. Some areas picked up 4-8″ of rain over the past weekend. They do not need additional heavy rain. This will need to be monitored.
What are PWAT values? Great question! I found this blog post that explains it quite well. Click here for more information on PWAT values.
Thunderstorm chances will be with us into early next week. A semi-typical July pattern is shaping. up. Occasionally some stronger upper level disturbances will help spark a bit more thunderstorm activity. And, MCS’s remain a concern. MCS’s are thunderstorm complexes that tend to form at night and continue into the morning hours. They are responsible for much of our summer rains.
Monitor updates over the coming days. There could be periods of heavy weather. Each day will be a little bit different as far as the thunderstorm trigger points. And, often times the finer details of a forecast aren’t known until 12 hours in advance.
Storm Tracking Radar
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Wednesday night: A few scattered thunderstorms possible. Heavy rain and lightning will be the main concern. FLash flooding likely in some spots. Very heavy rain totals possible for some counties.
Thursday-Sunday: Several periods of strong thunderstorms are possible. Timing each system is tricky, at best. Monitor updates concerning the potential for heavy rain and other. FLash flooding is a continued concern. Damaging winds is a concern.
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No big adjustments today.
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The main concern over the coming days will be additional rain. Many of us do not need more rain. I realize some spots still need a little precipitation. But, much of the region is soaked.
Lightning will be a concern for outdoor events this week. I also can’t rule out severe thunderstorms. Damaging wind being the primary concern.
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Avoid flooded roadways. Monitor watches and warnings over the coming days.
Lightning is a concern for outdoor activities. Perhaps monitor radars from time to time. And, monitor updates forecasts this week. Changeable weather is possible.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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Thunderstorms over the coming days could produce locally heavy rain. It is July and there is no lack of moisture in the atmosphere. Where storms form they would produce heavy downpours. Rainfall totals will vary considerably.
If some of these disturbances come together as forecast then some spots could top two or three inches over the coming week. Monitor updates.
Here is the broad-brushed rainfall outlook. But, keep in mind, this will be way off where thunderstorms train over the same areas. Those areas could pick up a lot more rain.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
