Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

Key Seven-Day Weather Information

If your app is not receiving notifications, please email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com

☀️ Warm and dry through Friday

⚠️ If you have outdoor plans on Saturday afternoon into Sunday, then monitor updated forecasts.  Rain may spread into the region from the south ⚠️

Another amazing autumn day for the region!  I hope you can get out and enjoy.

We will do it again tomorrow and Friday.  What a week of weather we have had.  Nice!  I think we earned it after our long summer.

Dry weather will continue through the rest of the workweek. Temperatures will be warmer than normal, with highs mainly in the 80s.

I can’t rule out some upper 80s on Friday.  Mid-80s are likely.  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 78 degrees.

A weak cold front will pass through tonight, but it won’t bring much of a temperature change. Thursday will remain warm and dry, although the air will become noticeably less humid.

🔥 I am watching the humidity levels.  They could dip into the 20s.  That would increase the risk of field fires.

Use caution if you are burning fields or brush.

🌀 Tropical system could impact our weekend

Confidence is increasing that the remnants of the tropical system in the Gulf will move into our region this weekend.

Rain could begin spreading into southern portions of the area Saturday afternoon. The greatest potential for moderate to heavy rain currently appears to be Saturday evening through Sunday morning.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are possible, with higher amounts locally. If heavier rain falls over the same areas, some localized flooding could occur.

Forecast confidence is now 40%.  That is up a bit from 24 hours ago.  This system could still shift a bit farther east, but that window of opportunity will close soon.

Here is the current National Hurricane Center track path.  The D means that it could still be a tropical depression as it moves into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

A depression is the lowest ranking for a tropical system.  After that is a tropical storm.  After that is a hurricane.

The system is currently a tropical storm.   It will likely become a Category 1 or low-end Category 2 over the next 24 to 48 hours.

Occasionally, these systems become stronger than anticipated.  The Gulf waters are quite warm.

Double-click on the image to enlarge it.  Its name is Isaias.

What does that mean for us?

That would mean locally heavy rain and gusty winds (20 to 40 mph).  I am monitoring the risk of tornadoes.  Occasionally, these systems can produce short-lived tornadoes on the northeast side of the low-pressure area.  Monitor updates.

Let’s look at the ensembles.

These are 1000 model runs.  Notice how the system moves northeast, then makes a sharp northwest turn into our region.

This notable northwest shift is new.

Double-click on images to enlarge them.

Here is the latest satellite image of Isaias.  You can see it there in the lower left.

⚠️ In review.

The exact track will be important. If the center of the weakening tropical system tracks across or near our region, we could see strong, gusty winds and stronger thunderstorms. Wind gusts of 30–40 mph may be possible.

There is also a potential for a few tornadoes, although right now that threat appears greater east of our region. That could change depending on the eventual track.

Uncertainty remains about the exact timing and track, and those details should become clearer over the next day or two.

Bottom line:

Plan for an unsettled weekend, especially from Saturday evening through Sunday morning, with the potential for heavy rain and gusty winds. If the system moves through faster, conditions could begin improving by Sunday afternoon.

.