Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

Key Seven-Day Weather Information

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☀️ Dry and warm through Friday

We are waking up to a chilly morning.  Some locations in southern Illinois are nearing the upper 30s!

Dry weather is expected for the rest of the workweek. Afternoon temperatures will be a little warmer than normal, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Mornings will still have an autumn feel. Temperatures will start out in the 40s today, then warm quickly during the afternoon.

Temperatures will gradually warm through Thursday before turning slightly cooler Friday.

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🌧️ Watching the weekend

A tropical system could impact our region this weekend.  It would bring widespread rain to the region. Some of the rain could be heavy (depending on the track).

Confidence in the track is LOW.  The track will determine whether we get rain or it stays dry.

We are closely watching a developing tropical system in the Gulf. This system has a high chance of developing over the next couple of days and potentially moving toward the Gulf Coast this weekend.

Moisture from this system could spread northward and bring rain to portions of our region Saturday night into Sunday.

Right now, western Kentucky and southwest Indiana have the best chance of a soaking rain, but there is still considerable uncertainty. The rain could shift farther east or west depending on the eventual track of the tropical system.

Bottom line: Enjoy several more days of dry and pleasant autumn weather. 🍂☀️ Our attention then turns to the Gulf, as tropical moisture could bring rain to parts of the region this weekend.

Right now, it still hasn’t developed.  There is an 80% chance that it becomes a tropical depression and perhaps even a tropical storm.  Whether it becomes a hurricane remains a question.

As of 6 AM, it was located in the Bay of Campeche.  It is circled in red.

You can see it on the satellite.

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There is a lot of wind shear along the Gulf.  That will help eventually shear it apart.  Making it non-tropical.

Let me show you some of the ensemble tracks for that Gulf system.

Ensembles are models that are run over and over again with slightly different starting points.

The more ensembles that agree, the higher the chance it will happen.

You can see a fairly tight clustering of the lines as it moves through the Gulf.

From there, it could spread northeast or north.  Perhaps a mixture of both.

How far west it moves ashore will determine whether our region has to deal with the system.

It would bring rain to the region.

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Right now, it’s too early to know whether it will bring rain to our region.  If this system moves across our region, several inches of rain could fall along the path.

If you have plans from Saturday night through Monday, then you will want to monitor the latest information.

Let me show you two models.

The EC model puts this system right over our region.

The GFS model is a tad farther east.

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