Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

Key Seven-Day Weather Information

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🌤️ Weather Forecast Update

Thursday, October 8, 2026

☀️ Today and Friday: Warm and dry

Dry weather will continue through Friday. Afternoon temperatures will climb into the 80s, which is warmer than normal for early October.

Friday will be especially warm. Some communities could reach 86-90 degrees.  This will happen as sinking air moves in ahead of our tropical system.

🔥 Increased fire danger today and Friday

Very dry air will move into portions of the region today, especially southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western Kentucky.

Humidity levels could drop to 15%-20% this afternoon. That is extremely dry air.

Winds will be light today, generally around 5 mph or less. Even with light winds, the dry air will increase the risk of grass and brush fires.

Similar conditions may develop Friday again, especially across southwest Indiana and portions of western Kentucky. Winds will be slightly stronger Friday, around 5 to 10 mph.

Avoid outdoor burning today and Friday. Fires could spread more easily than usual.

🌧️ Saturday and Saturday night: Widespread rain expected.  Ending west to east on Sunday morning.

Confidence is high that the remnants of Hurricane Isaias will bring widespread rain to our region this weekend.

Here is the morning satellite.  You can see the hurricane in the Gulf.

The hurricane is forecast to move northeast across the Gulf and make landfall near the Alabama and Florida Panhandle coastline Friday evening.

The forecast track is moving slightly faster than earlier forecasts indicated.

Here is the track.  The D means that it will be a tropical depression as it moves over our region.

Tropical systems range from a tropical disturbance (weakest).  The next level is a tropical depression.  The next level is a tropical storm.  The final level is a hurricane.

Double-click on images to enlarge them.

As the system moves inland, its moisture will spread north into our region on Saturday.

Here is the expected timing:

• Saturday morning: Rain will begin approaching our southern counties.

• Saturday late morning into the afternoon: Rain will spread north and northwest across the region. Some of the rain could be moderate to heavy.

• Saturday evening and overnight: Widespread rain continues, with locally heavy downpours possible.

• Sunday morning: Rain should gradually decrease and move out.

• Sunday afternoon: Most communities should be dry, although a few showers could linger in our eastern counties.

Let me show you the HWRF model.

Here is the rain moving northward on Saturday morning into the early afternoon.

Then it continues moving northward through the day.

Give or take a few hours.  It appears it will begin during the morning hours over the southern half of my region.

4 AM to 8 AM future-cast radar

🌧️ How much rain can we expect?

Some areas may receive less rain, especially in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois, including areas near Mount Vernon.  This depends heavily on the system’s exact track.  It also depends on how strong it is when it moves ashore.

The greatest potential for heavier rainfall is currently over western Kentucky and Tennessee.

Flooding is not the primary concern at this time, but that could change if the tropical system becomes stronger than expected or produces more rain than currently forecast.

I will continue watching that possibility.

💨 Saturday: Gusty winds possible

In addition to the rain, we could experience gusty winds Saturday afternoon and evening.

Most areas can expect wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph, with the strongest winds most likely near the Kentucky and Tennessee state line.

There is also a 20% to 30% chance that some locations could experience gusts of 40 mph or higher.

That could be strong enough to blow around unsecured outdoor items and bring down a few small tree limbs.

The exact wind speeds will depend on the strength and track of the tropical system.

🌤️ Sunday into next week: Improving weather

Rain should end across most of the region by Sunday afternoon.

Warmer weather returns Monday and possibly Tuesday, with afternoon highs climbing back into the 80s.  It is possible that Tuesday ends up in the 70s.

Another cold front is expected to move through the region Tuesday. Little or no rain is expected with that front.

Cooler air should arrive by the middle of next week.

📌 Bottom line

We have two more days of warm, dry weather ahead. Friday will be unusually warm for October, with a few locations approaching 90 degrees.

The bigger weather story is the tropical system moving north from the Gulf this weekend.

Saturday and Saturday night look wet and potentially windy. Widespread rainfall of 0.50″ to 1.5″ is expected, with higher amounts possible locally.

The greatest impacts currently appear to be soaking rainfall and gusty winds rather than severe thunderstorms.

The forecast will continue to adjust as we get closer to the weekend, especially rainfall totals, wind speeds, and the timing of the heaviest rain.

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