.
.
Key Seven-Day Weather Information
If your app is notreceiving notifications, please email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com
Severe weather preparedness week is here.
It is not uncommon to have tornadoes during the autumn months.
Autumn tornadoes tend to be deadlier. Storms can move at speeds in excess of 70 mph! That gives people little time to react.
Always stay weather aware.
.
Some of us are waking up to the coldest air since early last May. As of 5 AM, temperatures were still falling.
Here were the 5 AM temperatures. Check out Mt. Vernon, Illinois.
A nice autumn morning. Areas to the west had a few more clouds. That kept them warmer.
High pressure will remain over the Quad State through Tuesday, keeping the weather dry and winds fairly light.
Temperatures will start a little cooler than normal today, then steadily warm through the middle of the week. By Wednesday and Thursday, highs will climb into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. The best chance of reaching 90 will be across southern and eastern portions of the region.
The air will also be quite dry today and Tuesday, with humidity levels dropping into the 20% to 30% range during the afternoon. Fortunately, winds will remain light, which should help keep the fire danger from becoming too high.
A cold front will move through Thursday night into early Friday, bringing a 40% to 60% chance of showers. Thunderstorms and heavy rain are not expected with this front.
The forecast becomes more uncertain heading into the weekend. Right now, another weather system could bring more widespread showers Friday night into Saturday. Another cold front may then move through Saturday evening, ending the rain.
There are some significant questions on rain totals later this week. NOAA/NWS started out fairly high with totals of one to two inches+.
Confidence in those totals, for now at least, is low. Monitor updates.
Behind the fronts, cooler air returns. Temperatures should fall below normal by the weekend, with an even cooler feel possible Sunday and Monday.
The colored numbers are the mean from fifty model runs. As you can see, we warm up and then cool back down.
Decent autumn temperatures.
Bottom line: Dry and increasingly warm through midweek → rain chances increase Thursday night through Saturday → cooler weather returns for the weekend and early next week.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real-time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
.
🌪️ Seven-Day Outlook ⛈️
September 28th through October 4th
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe thunderstorm risk: NOT AT THIS TIME. MONITOR. I am monitoring the weekend.
🌪️ Current tornado risk: NOT AT THIS TIME.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS MEDIUM.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter..
.
Seven-Day Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? POSSIBLE. Thursday into Sunday.
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? ISOLATED. A chance on Wednesday. Mainly far southern MO, portions of west KY, and northwest TN. Lower chances as you travel northward.
5. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? NO.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? NO.
.
.
Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
-> Rain chances will vary (county-by-county rain probabilities can be found below. Scroll down)
.
Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points.
.
.
⚠️ This won’t be exact because the graphic is trying to predict where summer storms will form.
⚠️ Summer thunderstorms can produce a wide range of totals.
Eastern View
Double-click on the images to enlarge them.
Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
.
.
* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
GFS
.
Here is a map to help you find your general location.
.
EC
* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Use this animation for the general idea. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
..
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 82 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
.
Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
.
.
We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
.
https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?
Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account
You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.
Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)
🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.
Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.
Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.
Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)
GREEN IS ON
RED IS OFF
Want to add more products to your Beau Dodson Weather App?
Receive daily videos, weather blog updates on normal weather days and severe weather and winter storm days, your county by county weather forecast, and more!
Here is how to do add those additional products to your app notification settings!
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
