.
.
Key Seven-Day Weather Information
If your app is not receiving notifications, please email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com
Yesterday, the WPC/NOAA rainfall outlook was way too high. I mentioned that I thought it was too high. They have come down some today, but I am still not sure it is low enough.
I believe the most likely outcome from Thursday night through Sunday afternoon is a general 0.40″ to 0.80″ with pockets up to one inch.
The threat of heavy thunderstorms is non-existent. That will help keep rainfall totals in check. Severe weather is not in the forecast. Flooding is not in the forecast.
Key Messages
☀️ Very warm Wednesday and Thursday: Temperatures will climb to around 10 degrees above normal, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Despite the heat, humidity will remain fairly low, so it shouldn’t feel much hotter than the actual temperature.
There won’t be a heat index value (dew points are too low). We are not returning to the heat waves from early and mid-September.
🌧️ Rain arrives late Thursday night into Friday: Rain chances will increase from west to east Thursday night. The best chance of widespread rain will be Friday into Friday night, with rain continuing at times Saturday.
⛈️ Isolated thunder is possible: Most of this will simply be rain and showers. A few thunderstorms are possible, especially across the southern half of the region Saturday, but widespread thunderstorms are not expected.
🌧️ Rainfall amounts: Most places will probably receive around ½ inch of rain, although some locations could receive closer to 1 inch. The chance of receiving more than an inch is about 30%. Flooding is not expected.
🍂 Much cooler this weekend: A cold front will bring cooler air into the region. By Sunday and Monday, highs should only be in the lower to mid-70s, with morning lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Bottom line: Enjoy the warm and dry weather through Thursday. Rain becomes more likely Friday and Saturday, followed by a noticeable change to cooler, fall-like weather Sunday and Monday.
The cooler weather will likely last well into next week.
Here are the ensemble forecast temperatures for the next two weeks. Check out all those seventies!!!!
The colored numbers are the mean of 50 model runs. That is the most likely outcome for temperatures. Highs and lows.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real-time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
.
🌪️ Seven-Day Outlook ⛈️
September 29th through October 5th
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe thunderstorm risk: NO.
🌪️ Current tornado risk: NONE.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS MEDIUM.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter..
.
Seven-Day Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Possible/Isolated. Thursday into Sunday.
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? ISOLATED. A chance on Wednesday and Thursday.
5. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? NO.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? NO.
.
.
Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
-> Rain chances will vary (county-by-county rain probabilities can be found below. Scroll down)
.
Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points.
.
.
⚠️ This won’t be exact because the graphic is trying to predict where summer storms will form.
⚠️ Summer thunderstorms can produce a wide range of totals.
Eastern View
Double-click on the images to enlarge them.
The NOAA maps are too high. I won’t post them. Rain totals from Thursday night through Sunday will range from 0.40″ to 0.80″, locally up to 1 inch.
Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
The NOAA maps are too high. I won’t post them. Rain totals from Thursday night through Sunday will range from 0.40″ to 0.80″, locally up to one inch.
What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
.
.
* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
GFS
.
Here is a map to help you find your general location.
.
EC
* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Use this animation for the general idea. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
..
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 82 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
.
Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
.
.
We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
.
https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?
Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account
You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.
Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)
🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.
Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.
Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.
Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)
GREEN IS ON
RED IS OFF
Want to add more products to your Beau Dodson Weather App?
Receive daily videos, weather blog updates on normal weather days and severe weather and winter storm days, your county by county weather forecast, and more!
Here is how to do add those additional products to your app notification settings!
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
