Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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Key Seven-Day Weather Information

The main weather story today and tomorrow will be the heat.

I will keep a close eye on my far northern counties.  A few showers and thunderstorms may try to sneak into that area.  That would be closer to Ste Genevieve County, MO eastward to Mt Vernon, IL.

As of 6 AM, there were a few showers and thunderstorms near St Louis.  Most of the guidance weakens this activity.

🥵 Hot and Humid Weather Continues

Hot and humid conditions will start the week as warm, moist air continues to flow in from the south.

• 🌡️ High temperatures will reach the lower to middle 90s.  A bit above seasonal norms.
• 🥵 Heat index values will range from 102 to 110 degrees.
• ⚠️ The Heat Advisory has been extended through Thursday.  Hydrate.  Check on the elderly.  Don’t forget about our outdoor friends.

⛈️ Storm Chances Increase

While the heat is the main concern, showers and thunderstorms will become more likely beginning Tuesday night and continuing through the end of the week.

The best chances for storms currently appear to be:

• ⛈️ Wednesday evening: 30%–50%
• ⛈️ Thursday evening: 30%–50%

It appears the chance of rain will be higher over northern portions of the region.  That would include northern portions of southeast Missouri, the northern half of southern Illinois, and northwest Kentucky.

The rain chances will be much lower farther south/southwest.

For example, look at the projected rain totals through the weekend.  Notice how they are heavier north northeast vs south southwest.

Double-click on the images to enlarge them.

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Also, see the rain probability graphics below.  That will show you the county-by-county numbers.

Here is another graphic showing rain chances.

A few storms could become strong, but the overall severe weather threat appears low for our area. The better setup for severe storms is expected to remain north and east of the Quad State.

🌧️ Some storms could also produce heavy rainfall, with one-half inch to around 1 inch possible in areas that receive repeated or heavier storms.  Locally higher totals are possible.  Summer thunderstorms can produce downpours.

🌦️ Late Week and Weekend

By Thursday night into Friday, a cold front will slow down and eventually stall across the region.

This will keep scattered rain and storm chances around 20% to 30% into the weekend.

It will still be hot and humid, with heat index values remaining near 100 degrees.

Bottom line: 🥵 Summer heat continues through Thursday, with heat indices of 102–110 degrees for much of the area.

⛈️ Storm chances increase Wednesday and Thursday, with a few strong storms and locally heavy rain possible.  Again, mainly over my northern and northeastern counties.  Lower chances south southwest.

I will monitor today and tomorrow (for a few showers or storms far north).

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado and Severe Weather Outlook ⛈️

August 10th through August 17th

A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.

⛈️ Current severe weather risk: LOW RISK. Thunderstorms are possible this week.  There is a chance that a few of the storms could be strong.  Chances are a bit higher as you move towards northern portions of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and northwest Kentucky.  A bit lower over southeast Missouri and northwest Tennessee. 

The primary concern would be a few thunderstorms producing gusty wind.

These types of thunderstorm complexes are difficult to forecast.  Thus, monitor updates over the next few days.

🌪️ Current tornado risk:  NONE.  

🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS MEDIUM.

Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.

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Seven-day outlook graphic.

This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.

-> Rain chances will vary (county-by-county rain probabilities can be found below. Scroll down)

Chances will be higher north northeast.  Chances will be lower south southwest.

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Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points.  Dew points control how muggy it feels.

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Let’s Look At The Two-Day Rainfall Totals Forecast

⚠️ This won’t be exact because the graphic is trying to predict where summer storms will form.

⚠️ Some areas will receive higher totals.  Some areas could miss out on the rain, as well.  Summer thunderstorms can produce a wide range of totals.

These totals are through the weekend.

Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways to receive severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you if your home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon, it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.

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