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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️
May 25th through June 1st
Current risk: None.
Current confidence level: Medium.
Comments: At this time, there are no tornado risks in the charts.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. On-and-off chances into the weekend.
2. Are organized severe thunderstorms. Not at this time. Keep in mind that late spring and summer thunderstorms can always cause isolated high wind gusts (downburst winds).
3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? ISOLATED. Ongoing drought conditions should limit the risk of flash floods. Any issues would likely be limited to ditches and streams that commonly flood during heavy downpours.
If thunderstorms repeatedly train over the same area, isolated flash flooding could occur. Avoid flooded roadways, as always.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? NO.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? NO.
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⛈️ Here is the short-range thunderstorm concern meter.
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⛈️ Here is the extended thunderstorm concern meter.
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Here is your bus stop forecast
This morning
Memorial Day.
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This afternoon
Memorial Day.
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Tomorrow morning
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Tomorrow afternoon
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
See the video and graphics below for more details specific to your county. This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
See the rainfall probability graphics below.
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No video today. Memorial Day.
Forecast discussion
- An unsettled weather pattern into much of this week.
- On and off chances of showers and thunderstorms. It won’t rain all of the time.
- Rainfall totals will vary greatly. Generally, another 0.60″ to 1.20″ inches is likely. Locally higher in slow-moving thunderstorms.
- Remember, a 20% chance of thunderstorms does not mean that it won’t storm. It means that many locations will remain dry. A few spots will receive precipitation.
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What is the primary weather concern today and tonight?
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible today. Although many areas may remain dry. Chances have gone down today.
Here are the rain probabilities for today. This is from 7 AM to 7 PM. As you can see, the chances are lower to the west and north. A tad higher south and east.
Shower and thunderstorm chances increase tonight and tomorrow. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are anticipated tomorrow.
See the rain probability maps below.
The primary concern this week will be locally heavy downpours and lightning.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
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Here are the early morning current conditions. These are the 4 AM readings.
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Dew points are a bit sticky.
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Dew points are what make it feel muggy outside. Humid.
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Forecast Discussion
Seven-Day Rainfall Totals
Rainfall total maps through next Friday morning. Slow-moving thunderstorms can enhance totals. Keep that in mind.
A safe forecast would be for an additional 0.60″ to 1.20″. Locally higher in slow-moving thunderstorms.
These graphics are from the WPC/NOAA.
Double-click on images to enlarge them.
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A stationary front was located to our south this morning.
You can see that on this morning’s weather map.
Clouds are spreading north across the Quad State this morning, which should help prevent widespread fog. However, some areas may still see brief reductions in visibility and pockets of locally dense fog. Temperatures this morning will vary:
- Northern areas may drop into the 50s before clouds move in.
- Southeastern areas will stay warmer, in the lower 60s.
For most of the Quad State, today should finally be mostly dry. The only exception is the southern Pennyrile region, where there is still a small chance of a shower. See the rainfall probability graphics below.
Winds will remain light as high pressure moves across the Midwest.
Looking At The Week Ahead
A weather boundary to our southeast will slowly move north Tuesday into Wednesday. As warmer, more humid air moves into the area, showers will begin spreading north Monday night into Tuesday.
You can see that warm front/stationary front moving northward on tonight’s weather map.
This will increase rain chances tonight and tomorrow.
A few thunderstorms are possible Tuesday, but severe weather is not expected because conditions are not favorable for strong storm development.
Rain chances will continue into Wednesday as another weather system slows down and stalls near the region.
Later in the week and into the weekend:
- Rain chances remain in the forecast (see the graphics below).
- The heaviest rain is expected to stay south of the Quad State
Forecast rainfall totals are now expected to range from about:
- Half an inch to one inch overall
While this rain may help prevent drought conditions from worsening, it likely won’t be enough to significantly alleviate the drought. Flooding concerns remain low unless storms repeatedly move over the same areas or heavier rain develops.
Temperature Outlook
Most days this week will feature:
- Highs in the 70s
- Overnight lows in the 60s
By Wednesday and Thursday, warmer air moving north could push highs back into the 80s, with lows in the mid-60s.
By Wednesday, the warm front will be draped across Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana.
Temperatures may cool back into the 70s by late week and the weekend as the weather boundary shifts south again.
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Let’s look at the rain probability maps. What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
GFS Model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
NAM 3K Model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Hrrr Model
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 77 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 61 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
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Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
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Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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