Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

• Showers and a few thunderstorms will return early today and continue through Wednesday.  A bit of a complex forecast with a range of rain probabilities.  See the graphics below.
• Rain chances of 40–70% will continue Thursday into Friday, mainly across southeast Missouri, while other areas begin to dry out.
• High temperatures this week will generally stay in the upper 70s to lower 80s, which is close to normal for this time of year.  Nighttime temperatures will remain mild in the mid-60s throughout the workweek before cooling closer to normal by the weekend.

Discussion

A weather boundary is moving north through the Quad State this morning, bringing increasing clouds and light showers from the south. The extra clouds and moisture will help prevent much fog from developing, and morning temperatures will stay in the mid-60s.

You can see that boundary on this morning’s weather map.  It stretches from Arkansas into Illinois and Indiana.

.

Radar animation (4 AM).  You can see the rain moving northward.  Please see the live radar links above for the latest imagery.

Rain will become more widespread through the morning, and a few thunderstorms may develop this afternoon.

The atmosphere contains plenty of moisture, so some storms could produce heavy downpours, but severe weather is not expected because wind conditions in the atmosphere are weak.

Let me show you that moisture.

You can see all of that Gulf of Mexico moisture streaming northward on the PWAT maps.  Precipitable Water values.

The purple and pink areas indicate ample moisture for showers and thunderstorms to tap into.  You can clearly see where the frontal boundaries are draped.  Lower PWAT values north of the boundary.  Higher south of it.

.

Showers will continue tonight into Wednesday as a slow-moving upper-level weather system drifts east. A cold front moving in Wednesday night will push the weather boundary back to the south.

Please see the rainfall probability graphics below for each 12-hour time-frame.   There will be a wide range of rain probabilities (the % chance of rain).

Rainfall totals have decreased a bit.  This is what you can expect through tonight:  Additional rain is possible mid to late week.  That will be centered on the southern half of the region.  Mostly along and south of the Missouri/Arkansas border and then east along the Kentucky/Tennessee border.  Please see the seven-day rainfall graphics above.

• Around 0.10 to 0.50 inches in northern areas
• Around 1 inch in the southern Pennyrile region

Rain amounts on Wednesday and Thursday should be lighter.  Totals will vary based on the placement of that stationary boundary.   Adjustments were made to the daily forecast, including the rain probabilities.

A few spots could see minor localized flooding if storms repeatedly move over the same area, but widespread flooding is not expected.
.

Late Week and Weekend

By Thursday, high pressure moving into the Midwest will bring:

• Northeast winds
• Drier conditions, especially across the northeast parts of the Quad State

Rain chances late this week will mostly focus on southeast Missouri, while much of the rest of the region turns drier.

The weekend currently looks mostly dry as high pressure settles into the area and remains in place into early next week.

.
Temperature Outlook

Daytime highs:

• Today’s highs will stay in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees because of clouds and rain.
• Lower 80s become more common by midweek.
• Cooler air arrives late week into the weekend, bringing highs back into the 70s.  Sort of an odd pattern with numerous days with temperatures below seasonal averages.  Well, at least it is raining.  We needed the rain to slow the drought.

.
Overnight lows:

• Mid-60s through midweek

.

You can see those below-average temperatures on these two maps.  The blue zone is where it will be cooler than normal.

This is Sunday’s temperature outlook.  The graphic shows you how many degrees below average temperatures will be.  This equals highs mostly in the seventies.

And Monday’s map