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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️
May 22nd through May 29th
Current risk: UNLIKELY.
Current confidence level: Medium.
Comments: There is a low risk of an EF0 to EF1 quick spin-up this afternoon and evening in the dark green zone. Overall, the risk is low, but not zero.
Adjustments to this are possible.
The area of concern is mainly the dark green zone. The light green means that storms are likely, but below severe levels.
The dark green zone is the level one severe weather risk. One is the lowest risk. The scale ranges from one to five.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. On-and-off chances into much of next week.
2. Are organized severe thunderstorms. LOW RISK. A small risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Mainly over Kentucky and Tennessee. I will monitor late next week.
Keep in mind that late spring and summer thunderstorms can always cause isolated high wind gusts (downburst winds).
3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? ISOLATED. Ongoing drought conditions should limit the risk of flash floods. Any issues would likely be limited to ditches and streams that commonly flood during heavy downpours.
If thunderstorms repeatedly train over the same location, isolated flash flooding would be possible. Avoid flooded roadways, as always.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? NO.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? NO.
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⛈️ Here is the short-range thunderstorm concern meter.
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⛈️ Here is the extended thunderstorm concern meter.
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Here is your bus stop forecast
This morning
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This afternoon
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Tomorrow morning
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Tomorrow afternoon
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
See the video and graphics below for more details specific to your county. This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
See the rainfall probability graphics below.
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Forecast discussion
- An unsettled weather pattern into much of next week.
- On and off chances of showers and thunderstorms. It won’t rain all of the time.
- Rainfall totals will vary greatly. Generally, another one to two inches is likely. Locally higher.
- The threat of severe weather today through next Thursday is currently low. Perhaps a few downburst winds. I will be monitoring this afternoon and evening over Kentucky and Tennessee for a few of the storms to be intense.
- Remember, a 20% chance of thunderstorms does not mean that it won’t storm. It means that many locations will remain dry. A few spots will receive precipitation.
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What is the primary weather concern today and tonight?
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tonight. Locally heavy rain and lightning will be a concern. A low-level risk of a few storms becoming severe this afternoon and evening.
See the rain probability maps below.
The primary concern will be locally heavy downpours and lightning. I will monitor this afternoon and evening for a few intense storms.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
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Here are the early morning current conditions. These are the 4 AM readings.
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Dew points are a bit sticky.
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Dew points are what make it feel muggy outside. Humid.
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Forecast Discussion
Seven-Day Rainfall Totals
Rainfall total maps through next Friday morning. Slow-moving thunderstorms can enhance totals. Keep that in mind.
A safe forecast would be for an additional widespread 1.00″ to 2.00″. Locally higher in slow-moving thunderstorms.
These graphics are from the WPC/NOAA.
Double-click on images to enlarge them.
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- Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms return today and continue through next week.
Saturday looks like the driest day, with only a 20–30% chance of an isolated thunderstorm. - There is a low risk of severe weather today, mainly across the far southeast Kentucky Pennyrile region.
The main concerns late this afternoon and evening are:- A brief weak tornado (low risk, overall)
- Isolated damaging wind gusts (downburst winds can occur with little or no warning)
- Rainfall totals over the next week are expected to range from 1 to 3 inches. Some areas could see more than 3 inches where storms repeatedly move over the same locations.
This could lead to localized minor flooding, especially today.
Discussion
Unsettled weather quickly returns today as a warm front moves north through the region. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will spread across the area this morning and continue through the afternoon.
You can see that on the 5 AM radar. Rain is moving northward and will continue to develop.
See the live radar links above.
The greatest concern for stronger storms is across the far southeast Kentucky Pennyrile area, where conditions may support:
- A brief weak tornado (low risk)
- A few storms with damaging winds
- The hail risk is low. Perhaps some pea-sized hail.
Again, the area of concern is mainly the dark green zone. The light green means that storms are likely, but below severe levels.
The dark green zone is the level one severe weather risk. One is the lowest risk. The scale ranges from one to five.
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The main time to watch will be late this afternoon into this evening, when a few stronger storms may develop.
Another concern today is heavy rainfall. Some storms could produce torrential downpours, leading to minor nuisance flooding in low-lying or poor drainage areas.
The weekend starts a little quieter:
- Saturday: Mostly drier with only isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm chances.
- Saturday is the pick day of the weekend.
- Saturday night into Monday: Rain chances increase again to around 50–60%
Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through at least next Thursday, with storms most likely during the afternoon and evening hours. See the rain maps below for each 12-hour period of time.
Right now, there is no strong signal for widespread severe weather next week, but the second half of next week may need closer monitoring as a stronger weather system approaches. I can’t rule out some severe weather. Monitor updates.
Rainfall totals through next Thursday are expected to average:
- 1 to 2.5 inches overall
- Some spots could exceed that, where multiple rounds of storms occur
Temperatures:
- Today: Highs in the 70s
- Weekend: Back into the 80s (a bit humid, as well)
- Next week: Warming into the mid-80s
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Let’s look at the rain probability maps. What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
GFS Model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
NAM 3K Model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Hrrr Model
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 77 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 61 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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