Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

• A few showers and thunderstorms (20 to 30% chances) are possible this afternoon over eastern portions of western Kentucky and Tennessee.  Lower chances everywhere else (less than 10% chances).  See the rain graphics below.
• Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms return Friday and continue well into next week.
  There will be a few short dry periods today and Saturday, but most days next week will have at least a 50–60% chance of rain.
• There is a high chance of widespread rainfall totals of 1–2 inches by next Wednesday, and many areas have a 60–90% chance of receiving more than 3 inches of rain.
•  A few of the thunderstorms on Friday afternoon and evening could be strong with gusty winds.  A small chance for a brief EF0 to EF1 tornado (mainly over KY/TN).
  Some minor flooding issues are possible, but widespread flooding is not expected because the rain will fall over several days instead of all at once.
• Cooler-than-normal temperatures in the 70s will gradually warm back into the 80s by next week.

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Discussion

Good morning!

We are in an active pattern.  Perhaps the most active since last spring.  It has been a while since we have had this many days with shower and thunderstorm chances.  This is good news for the drought stricken region.

Let’s hope this will help turn the corner.  With that said, we need the rains to come and go on a regular basis into the summer.  Obviously.

Quite a bit of rain has fallen over the last few days.  Some counties have receive one to four inches of rain.  Much needed rain.

Slow moving storms have enhanced totals in some counties.  Training showers and storms have also enhanced totals for some locations.

A large area of high pressure over the Great Lakes is bringing a brief break from the wet weather today, along with drier conditions.

A few isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon in far southeast Kentucky, with about a 30–40% chance of rain there.

Here is today’s rain probability graphic.  As you can see, there is a chance of showers and storms over my far eastern and southeastern counties.   Mainly east of Land Between the Lakes.

The dry weather will not last long. By Friday morning, a warm front and weak low-pressure system will move north into the region, bringing periods of showers and thunderstorms across the entire area.

Friday’s risk of severe weather is low.  I can’t completely rule out a strong thunderstorm over western Kentucky and Tennessee.  Mainly on Friday afternoon and evening.  I will keep an eye on it, as always.

Saturday currently looks a little drier, with 15–30% chance of rain.  This is lower from previous updates.

The weather pattern becomes much more active again from Sunday through at least Wednesday, with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms expected each day.

At this time:

• The risk for severe weather remains low
• Any flooding problems should stay minor, since the rain will be spread out over several days

Forecast models show:

• A high chance of at least 1–2 inches of rain (see graphics above)
• A 60–90% chance that some areas receive more than 3 inches of rain by next Wednesday

Temperatures will also warm up:

• Lower 80s this weekend
• Mid-80s by next Wednesday