.
🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️
May 20th through May 27th
Current risk: NOT AT THIS TIME.
Current confidence level: Medium.
Comments: Tornadoes are not in the forecast.
.
Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. On-and-off chances into next week.
2. Are organized severe thunderstorms. UNLIKELY. No significant risk of severe weather at this time. Keep in mind that late spring and summer thunderstorms can always cause isolated high wind gusts (downburst winds).
3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? ISOLATED. Ongoing drought conditions should limit the risk of flash floods. Any issues would likely be limited to ditches and streams that commonly flood during heavy downpours.
If thunderstorms repeatedly train over the same location, then isolated flash flooding would be a possibility. Avoid flooded roadways, as always.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? NO.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? NO.
.
⛈️ Here is the short-range thunderstorm concern meter.
.
⛈️ Here is the extended thunderstorm concern meter.
.
.
Here is your bus stop forecast
This morning
.
.
This afternoon
.
.
Tomorrow morning
.
Tomorrow afternoon
.
Seven-day outlook graphic.
See the video and graphics below for more details specific to your county. This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
See the rainfall probability graphics below.
.
Forecast discussion
- An unsettled weather pattern over the next seven days.
- On and off chances of showers and thunderstorms.
- Rainfall totals will vary greatly. Generally, another one to two inches is likely. Locally higher.
- The threat of severe weather today through next Wednesday is currently low. Perhaps a few downburst winds.
- Remember, a 20% chance of thunderstorms does not mean that it won’t storm. It means that many locations will remain dry. A few spots will receive precipitation.
.
.
.
What is the primary weather concern today and tonight?
Scattered showers and thunderstorms today and tonight. Peak chances will be today. Lower chances tonight.
The primary concern will be locally heavy downpours and lightning.
.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
.
Here are the early morning current conditions. These are the 4 AM readings.
.
Dew points are a bit sticky.
.
Dew points will remain sticky over the next few days. Dew points are what make it feel muggy outside. Humid.
.
.
Forecast Discussion
Seven-Day Rainfall Totals
Rainfall total maps through next Wednesday morning. Slow-moving thunderstorms can enhance totals. Keep that in mind.
A safe forecast would be for an additional widespread 1.00″ to 2.00″
These graphics are from the WPC/NOAA.
Double-click on images to enlarge them.
.
Key Points
- Rain and thunderstorms will increase this morning, bringing another 0.50 to 1.5 inches of rain. A few areas—mainly in western Kentucky—could see very heavy downpours that may cause isolated flooding, but flooding is not expected to be widespread. Avoid flooded roadways, as always.
- Rain will briefly decrease Wednesday night into Thursday. After that, the daily chance of showers and thunderstorms returns from Friday through Tuesday.
- Temperatures will be cooler than normal through Thursday, with highs in the low to mid 70s. Temperatures will warm up this weekend, returning to the 80s, and could reach the mid-80s by the middle of next week.
A cold front is moving southeast across the region this morning, and that is helping showers and thunderstorms increase. Some areas—especially across western Kentucky—could see another 1 to 2 inches of rain.
This was the 5 AM radar. Numerous showers and thunderstorms. Coverage is lower far north and far west.
Some localized flooding is possible today, mainly where the heaviest downpours occur. However, the storms should keep moving, which should limit widespread flooding. Because of that, the flood watch has not been expanded.
The rain and storms will gradually decrease later this afternoon and evening as the cold front moves southeast of the area.
Temperatures today will be cooler than normal, with highs ranging from the upper 60s in the northwest to the mid-70s in the southeast. Highs will stay in the 70s through the end of the week.
A large area of high pressure will move in on Thursday, bringing drier air. A few isolated thunderstorms are still possible in the far southern counties, but most areas should stay dry.
The quiet weather won’t last long. A warm front will move north on Friday, bringing an 80–90% chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather does not look likely because the atmosphere will not be very unstable.
The weather pattern will remain unsettled through the holiday weekend and into early next week, with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Winds from the south will continue bringing moist air into the region, and there is a 50–70% chance that parts of the southeastern area receive more than 3 additional inches of rain by next Wednesday.
Temperatures will gradually warm back into the 80s, with highs likely reaching the mid-80s by the middle of next week.
Right now, Memorial Day is shaping up to be warm, humid, and unsettled. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely.
Here is the % chance of rain on Memorial Day from 7 AM to 7 PM. Adjustments in this are still possible (it is several days away).
Here are the anticipated highs for next Monday.
If you have outdoor plans Friday through Monday, then pack a rain jacket and umbrella. Plan on scattered showers and thunderstorms.
We need the rain. Even though the timing isn’t the best for outdoor plans.
The good news is that I don’t see any signs of widespread severe weather. It has been a very odd May. Nationwide, we are at record low numbers for tornadoes. Let’s hope it stays that way.
.
Let’s look at the rain probability maps. What is the % chance of rain?
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Hrrr Model
.
.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
NAM 3K Model
.
.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
GFS Model
.
..
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 77 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 61 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
.
Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
.
.
.
We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
.
https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?
Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account
You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.
Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)
🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.
Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.
Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.
Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)
GREEN IS ON
RED IS OFF
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
.
We do have some sponsors! Check them out.
Roof damage from recent storms? Link – Click here
INTEGRITY ROOFING AND EXTERIORS!
⛈️ Roof or gutter damage from recent storms? Today’s weather is sponsored by Integrity Roofing. Check out their website at this link https://www.ourintegritymatters.com/
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways! Now, I have another product for you and your family.
.
Want to add more products to your Beau Dodson Weather App?
Receive daily videos, weather blog updates on normal weather days and severe weather and winter storm days, your county by county weather forecast, and more!
Here is how to do add those additional products to your app notification settings!
Here is a video on how to update your Beau Dodson Weather payment.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
.
.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
.
.
Find Beau on Facebook! Click the banner.
.
