Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

May 19th through May 25th

Current risk:  Monitor Updates.

Current confidence level: Medium.

Comments:  There is a risk of a few severe thunderstorms today and tonight.  At this time, the tornado risk appears to be low.  Perhaps not zero, but low.  Monitor updates.  I will send out alerts on the app if necessary.

Here is today’s severe weather outlook.

A level one and two risk.  The risk overall is low.

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Here is your bus stop forecast 

This morning

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This afternoon

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Tomorrow morning

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Tomorrow afternoon

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Seven-day outlook graphic.

See the video and graphics below for more details specific to your county.  This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.

See the rainfall probability graphics below.

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What is the primary weather concern today and tonight?

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

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Here are the early morning current conditions.  These are the 4 AM readings.

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Dew points are a bit sticky.

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Dew points will remain sticky over the next few days.  Dew points are what make it feel muggy outside.  Humid.

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Forecast Discussion

More thunderstorms today and tonight.  Additional showers and thunderstorms into the weekend.  An unsettled pattern, overall.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected this afternoon and tonight across the Quad State.

• Rain chances increase to 60–90% this evening (see the graphics below for each 12-hour time period).
• A few storms could become strong, especially during the afternoon.  There is a low-end severe weather risk.  High wind and hail being the primary concern.  See those graphics above.

Rain chances will continue into the weekend.  An unsettled pattern.

There will be chances for rain almost every day over the next week, generally 30–50% or higher each day.

• Thursday looks like the driest day, with rain mainly staying south of the region.

Temperatures:

• Today will be warm, with highs in the mid to upper 80s and breezy winds.
• After today, cooler and less humid air moves in, with highs dropping into the 70s for a couple of days.
• Warmer weather returns by the weekend, with temperatures climbing back into the 80s along with increasing humidity.

Locally Heavy Rain Possible.

Some storms today may produce very heavy downpours, which could lead to minor flooding in low-lying areas.

Storms that formed earlier this morning in Missouri will help set the stage for unsettled weather later today. A cold front is moving toward the region, and warm, humid air is moving in ahead of it. Dew points will rise to around 70 degrees, making the air feel more humid.

Temperatures today will climb into the mid to upper 80s, although the far western areas may be a little cooler due to more clouds. It will also be breezy, with wind gusts around 20 to 25 mph.

Later today, showers and thunderstorms may redevelop, but computer models disagree somewhat on exactly how this will happen. Some models suggest scattered storms this afternoon that become more organized tonight, while others show a stronger line of storms developing during the afternoon and moving east.

Even with the uncertainty, rain chances will increase late this afternoon and evening, with the highest chances (60–90%) this evening.

There is a Level 2 out of 5 severe weather risk for much of the region today.

Overall wind patterns in the atmosphere are weaker than yesterday, which may limit the development of severe storms. However, the atmosphere will still have plenty of energy for storms, so a few isolated severe storms are possible, mainly producing damaging wind gusts.

Another concern will be heavy rainfall. Some storms could produce torrential downpours, which may cause localized flash flooding in low-lying areas.

A cold front will move south of the area on Wednesday, but the weather pattern will remain somewhat unsettled.

• Rain chances will continue most days this week.
• Thursday looks like the driest day, with rain mainly in the southern counties.

Temperatures will cool into the 70s with lower humidity for a short time as drier air moves in from the north. However, this more comfortable weather will not last long.

By Friday and into the weekend, the front will move back north. This will bring increasing humidity, warmer temperatures in the 80s, and more showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances may climb to 80–90% at times, especially during the morning hours.

Six-Day Rainfall Totals

Rain totals have increased.

Rainfall total maps through next Tuesday morning.  Slow-moving thunderstorms can enhance totals.  Keep that in mind.

A safe forecast would be for an additional widespread 1.00″ to 2.00″

These graphics are from the WPC/NOAA.

Double-click on images to enlarge them.

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As mentioned above, here is today’s severe weather outlook.  We are at a low-level one and two risk.

Yellow is a level two risk.  Dark green is a level one risk.

The scale ranges from one (lowest) to five (highest).

The light green zone is where storms are possible, but they will most likely remain below severe levels.

For now, just know that a few of the thunderstorms today and tonight could produce strong wind gusts and hail.  Again, the tornado risk appears minimal.

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Let’s look at the rain probability maps.   What is the % chance of rain?

Double-click maps to enlarge them.

These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 77 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 78 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 61 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

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