Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

May 6th through May 12th

Current risk:  None

Current confidence level: High.

Comments:  Tornadoes are not in the forecast.

 

Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  Possible.   A low chance today.  Another chance Friday night.  Another chance  Saturday night and Sunday.  I will monitor Monday.

2.  Are organized severe thunderstorms. NOT AT THIS TIME.  I will monitor Sunday’s thunderstorms.  There are some signals for intense storms on Sunday, but too many questions remain to issue an alert.

3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? NO.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.    

5. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees?  NO.    

6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? NO.

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⛈️ Here is the short-range thunderstorm concern meter.

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⛈️ Here is the extended thunderstorm concern meter.

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Here is your bus stop forecast 

This morning

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This afternoon

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Tomorrow morning

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Tomorrow afternoon

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Seven-day outlook graphic.

See the video and graphics below for more details specific to your county.  This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.

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My daily video

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Forecast discussion

•   Cooler temperatures.
•   A few showers today and tonight.
•   A chance of widely scattered showers and storms Friday night, Saturday night, and on Sunday.
•   The warmest day will likely be Saturday.  That is when some counties will hit 80 degrees.
•   Several cool shots to come.

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What is the primary weather concern today and tonight?

Widespread rain moved through the region last night.  Some showers continue this morning.

A few showers will be possible this morning and this afternoon.  No severe weather concerns.  Isolated rumble of thunder.  Cooler temperatures.

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Here are the early morning current conditions.  These are the 4 AM readings.

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Here was the 5 AM radar animation.  Last night, we had widespread rain.  It has tapered some this morning.

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This is what our radar looked like at 12 AM (last night).  Quite the busy radar.  Much-needed rainfall.

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The cold front has already moved through most of the area, but some showers and a few isolated thunderstorms are still occurring. Because the front is still nearby, there is still a chance of showers today.

Showers may decrease for a while this morning, then increase again this afternoon, especially across southern counties closer to the front.  Isolated thunder.

Since cooler air is now in place, with north winds at the surface, the risk of strong or severe storms will remain south of our area today.

Rain chances will gradually decrease tonight as the system moves away and high pressure builds into the region. This will bring a couple of cooler, drier, and pleasant days through the end of the workweek, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

By Friday, the high-pressure system will move east, and warmer air will return. Humidity will increase, and temperatures will climb back into the 70s.

A fast-moving cold front will move through the Ohio Valley Friday night and could bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms, but severe weather is not expected to be a major concern.

Chances of rain on Friday night will be on the lower end (see graphics below).

The warmest day of the forecast will likely be Saturday, when highs could reach the 80s.

Another weather system will approach late Saturday night, bringing increasing clouds and a new chance of rain and storms Saturday night into Sunday.

Rain chances will increase late Saturday night into Sunday.  Right now, it appears a few storms could be intense, but whether we have to deal with severe weather is unknown.  I will know more tomorrow and Friday.

After that front moves through, cooler and pleasant weather will return early next week, with highs in the low 70s and lows in the low 50s.

Temperatures begin warming again by the middle of the week.  Our roller-coaster temperature pattern continues!

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Weather Talk is one of those ways!  Now, I have another product for you and your family.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.