Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

May 5th through May 12th

Current risk:  A low-level risk this afternoon and tonight.  See the graphics below.

Current confidence level: Medium.

Comments:  I will monitor this afternoon and tonight.  Mainly over southeast Missouri and western Tennessee.  Mostly along the MO/AR border.  The threat should lessen as you travel into Kentucky and Illinois.

I will send out app alerts if necessary.

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Here is your bus stop forecast 

This morning

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This afternoon

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Tomorrow morning

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Tomorrow afternoon

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Seven-day outlook graphic.

See the video and graphics below for more details specific to your county.  This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.

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What is the primary weather concern today and tonight?

Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will move southeast across the entire region today. Rain chances will increase to 80–100% by this afternoon and evening, meaning most areas will see rain.

There is a small chance that a few storms could become strong or severe this afternoon or evening, but the better chances for severe weather are expected to stay south of our area.

Rainfall totals are expected to average between 0.80″ and 1.60″, although some areas could receive more.  The rain should help improve ongoing drought conditions in the region.

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Here are the early morning current conditions.  These are the 4 AM readings.

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Here was the 4 AM radar animation.

You can see showers and thunderstorms moving towards our region.

All of this will push across the area later today and tonight.

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A cold front will move into the area later today and pass through tonight. As it gets closer, dewpoints will increase and clouds will increase.

This front will help trigger showers and thunderstorms today and tonight.

The atmosphere may not become very unstable, which could limit how strong storms become. However, because the front will arrive during the warmest part of the day, it will still need to be watched.

A few storms could become strong, but the overall risk for severe weather appears low to marginal.  Mainly across southeast Missouri and western Tennessee.  Lower chances of severe weather as you travel into Kentucky and Illinois.  I will monitor it, as always.

Widespread rain is expected today and tonight, with most areas receiving 0.80″ to 1.60″ of rain, and a few spots possibly getting more. If storms move over the same areas repeatedly, localized flooding could occur, but the overall flooding risk remains low.

Because of the clouds and rain, temperatures today will stay mostly in the 60s, which is much cooler than yesterday’s 80s. This will begin a cooler stretch of weather, with highs staying in the 60s through Wednesday. Overnight lows will drop into the 40s, which is also cooler than normal for this time of year.

Looking ahead, there is a small chance of rain Friday night into the weekend. A stronger weather system may bring better chances for rain late in the weekend and early next week.

Between these systems, temperatures should warm back up closer to normal, with highs returning to the 70s and possibly near 80° in southern areas this weekend.

Here are the anticipated rainfall totals.  As always, they will vary based on where thunderstorms occur.

Thunderstorms will enhance totals.

Double-click the image to enlarge it.

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Looking ahead, there is a small chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday afternoon into Friday night and a higher chance on Sunday and Monday.

The charts show several waves of below normal temperatures into the middle of May.

A bit of a roller-coaster ride in the temperature department.  Orange and red colors mean above-average temperatures.

You can see that in this animation.  The blue and purple colors represent below-average temperatures.

Double-click on the animation to enlarge it.

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Let’s look at the rain probability maps.   What is the % chance of rain?

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7 AM Tuesday through 7 PM Tuesday.

Double-click maps to enlarge them.

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7 PM Tuesday to 7 AM Wednesday

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7 AM Wednesday through 7 PM Wednesday

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7 PM Wednesday to 7 AM Thursday

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7 AM Thursday to 7 PM Thursday

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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 75 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 77 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.

Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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