Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

Monday, April 20, 2026. Warming trend. Monitoring thunderstorm chances later this week.

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

April 20th to April 27th

Current risk: MONITOR.

Current confidence level: Medium.

Comments: I am monitoring Thursday night into Friday night.  Another storm system will bring a chance of thunderstorms to the region.  It is too soon to know if severe weather will be a concern.  There are some signals that severe storms are possible.  I will monitor Saturday, as well.  Signals beyond Saturday are murky, at best.  

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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES.  Lightning is possible Thursday night into at least Friday night.  I will monitor Saturday.

2.  Are organized severe thunderstorms. MONITOR.  I am monitoring Thursday night into Friday night.  I will monitor Saturday.

3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? NO.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.    

5. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees?  NO.    

6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? NO.

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⛈️ Here is the short-range thunderstorm concern meter.

I will monitor late this afternoon and tonight.

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⛈️ Here is the extended thunderstorm concern meter.

I will monitor Thursday and Friday.  There remain some questions about the severe weather threat and placement.

There also remain some questions beyond Friday.  Monitor updates.

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Here is your bus stop forecast 

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This morning


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This afternoon


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Tomorrow morning

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Tomorrow afternoon

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Seven-day outlook graphic.

See the video and graphics below for more details specific to your county.  This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.


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My daily video

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Forecast discussion

  •  A warming trend over the next few days.
  •  Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase on Thursday night and Friday.  Chances may linger into Saturday.
  •  I am monitoring the risk of severe weather Thursday night into Friday night.

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What is the primary weather concern today and tonight?

No significant weather concerns today or tonight.

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Here are the early morning current conditions.  These are the 4 AM readings.

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Some locations had a light frost on Sunday morning.  Temperatures were in the thirties.

The good news is that we are going to see a warming trend over the next few days.

Breezy, at times, as well.  It is spring.  Spring does deliver wind.

Our next weather concern will arrive on Thursday night and Friday.

A frontal system will approach the region from the west.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the cold front.

Peak chances will be Thursday night into at least Friday night.  Perhaps Saturday, as well.

There are some questions about the Saturday and Sunday forecast.  If the system moves faster, then rain chances will likely come to an end on Friday night.

Monitor updates if you have weekend plans.

A few of the thunderstorms could be intense on Thursday night into at least Friday night.

We are watching a risk of severe weather.  Mainly across southern Missouri into western Tennessee.  I would not be surprised to see the risk shift a bit farther north with time.  Monitor updates over the coming days.

Let’s look at those rain probabilities.

These are higher than my current seven-day graphic above.  I would like to see one more day’s worth of data before increasing my rain probabilities.

Undoubtedly, there will be time frames with higher probabilities of rain.

What is the % chance of rain?

Double-click images to enlarge them.

This graphic is the % chance of rain from 7 PM Thursday to 7 AM Friday
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This next graphic is the % chance of rain from 7 AM Friday to 7 PM Friday
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This next graphic is the % chance of rain from 7 PM Friday to 7 AM Saturday
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This next graphic is the % chance of rain from 7 AM Saturday to 7 PM Saturday
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This next graphic is the % chance of rain from 7 PM Saturday to 7 AM Sunday
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This next graphic is the % chance of rain from 7 AM Saturday to 7 PM Sunday

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Green is rain.  Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.

This model pops most of the storms east northeast of our region (on Thursday PM)

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

GFS Model


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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Green is rain.  Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

EC Model

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Green is rain.  Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

RRFS  Model

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 47 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.
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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you ifyour home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.
Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

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Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?

Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account

You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.

Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)

🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.

Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.

Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.

Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)

GREEN IS ON
RED IS OFF

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar


If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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We do have some sponsors!  Check them out.

Roof damage from recent storms?  Link – Click here

INTEGRITY ROOFING AND EXTERIORS!

⛈️ Roof or gutter damage from recent storms? Today’s weather is sponsored by Integrity Roofing. Check out their website at this link https://www.ourintegritymatters.com/

 

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Weather Talk is one of those ways!  Now, I have another product for you and your family.

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Want to add more products to your Beau Dodson Weather App?

Receive daily videos, weather blog updates on normal weather days and severe weather and winter storm days, your county by county weather forecast, and more!

Here is how to do add those additional products to your app notification settings!

Here is a video on how to update your Beau Dodson Weather payment.

The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here



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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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