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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️
April 21st to April 28th
Current risk: MONITOR.
Current confidence level: Medium.
Comments: At this time, I am monitoring Monday. Monday is the day with the greatest chance of severe weather. Monitor updates.
I will also keep an eye on Friday. The Friday risk appears minimal.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible Thursday night into Monday.
2. Are organized severe thunderstorms. MONITOR. I am monitoring Friday and Friday night. I am monitoring late Sunday night into Monday night.
3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? NO.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? NO.
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⛈️ Here is the short-range thunderstorm concern meter.
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⛈️ Here is the extended thunderstorm concern meter.
I am monitoring Friday and Monday.

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Here is your bus stop forecast
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This morning

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This afternoon

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Tomorrow morning

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Tomorrow afternoon

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Seven-day outlook graphic.
See the video and graphics below for more details specific to your county. This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.

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Forecast discussion
- Warmer temperatures. Breezy, at times.
- Lake wind advisory today.
- A high fire danger today. Avoid burning brush and fields.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase on Thursday night and Friday. On-and-off chances into Monday night.
- I am monitoring the risk of severe weather on Friday and on Monday.
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What is the primary weather concern today and tonight?
No significant weather concerns today or tonight.
It will be windy today. There is a lake wind advisory for the region. If you are boating, then use extra caution. Gusty winds could be an issue for you.
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Here are the early morning current conditions. These are the 4 AM readings.
A great spring day ahead of us. Warm and breezy.
The humidity will be low. That increases the risk of field and brush fires. Avoid burning brush and fields.
No weather concerns through Thursday morning. Warm. Breezy, at times.
Our next weather concern will arrive on Thursday night and Friday.
A frontal system will approach the region from the west.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the cold front.
Peak chances will be Thursday night into Friday evening.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be with us on Saturday and Sunday, as well.
Monitor updates if you have weekend plans.
The risk of severe weather through Sunday afternoon is low. I am monitoring Friday and Friday evening for a few intense thunderstorms. No strong signals for organized severe weather. Monitor updates, as always.
A stronger system will move into the region on Monday. Some of those thunderstorms could be intense.
The AI models are starting to pick up on that. I can’t rule out severe weather, but it is six/seven days away. I don’t have a lot of confidence in model data six days out. A lot can change. Monitor updated forecasts over the coming days. I will know a lot more by Thursday. We can start ramping up on Thursday if severe weather continues to show up in the charts.
Let’s look at those rain probabilities.
What is the % chance of rain?
Double-click images to enlarge them.
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Let’s look at rainfall totals.
The WPC NOAA maps have been too high over the past several months.
Let’s see how this trends. Hopefully, it will be close to accurate. We are in a drought. Some areas are in severe drought.
This is the seven-day rainfall outlook.
Double click to enlarge the graphics.
Eastern view of our local area.
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Western view of our local area.
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
This model pops most of the storms east northeast of our region (on Thursday PM)
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
EC Model
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
GFS Model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
RRFS Model
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 47 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
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Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
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https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
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If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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