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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Winter Weather Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Saturday Night – Becoming cloudy. A period of light snow possible before sunrise. Sleet, as well.
Temperatures: Lows from 15 to 20 degrees, but perhaps rising towards morning.
Winds: Northeast and east winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Yes, a period of light snow and sleet possible tonight. Maybe freezing drizzle, as well. Slick roads will be the main focus.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but it will be cold.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Cold temperatures. Wind chills from 8-14 degrees. Wintry mix possible. Slick roads possible.
Sunday – Cloudy. Snow and sleet. Solid wintry mix. This should keep snow totals down. Freezing light rain possible. Focus not on amounts. Focus on impacts. Slick roads. Less sleet and snow totals would go up.
Temperatures: Highs will range from 26-32 degrees.
Winds: South and southeast winds at 4-8 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 90%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Wintry mix in the region
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Roads will become snow and ice covered during the day on Sunday.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Roads will become snow and ice covered on Sunday into Sunday night.
Sunday Night – Snow, sleet, and light freezing rain possible. Temperatures may rise after midnight.
Temperatures: Lows from 24-28 degrees. Temperatures may rise after midnight.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Wintry mix possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might want to have alternative plans
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Slick roads possible.
Monday – Cloudy. Any wintry precipitation should turn to rain. Mainly in western Kentucky and western Tennessee. Lesser chances the further north and west you travel. Temperatures rising above freezing Monday morning. Depending on storm track there is a chance for a brief change over back to snow as the system pulls away.
Temperatures: Rising temperatures into the 30s.
Winds: South winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps widespread (depending on storm track)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low/medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? We may have a wintry mix in the region changing to rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Morning travel may be disrupted by slick roads.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Slick roadways will be possible on at least Monday morning.
Monday Night – Cloudy. A chance for light rain or light rain/snow mix.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 30s.
Winds: Southwest winds at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Maybe some light rain/snow mix late at night.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe slick roads if temperatures were to fall below freezing.
Tuesday – Cloudy. Milder. A shower possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 40s
Winds: West winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Winter precipitation event likely on Sunday into Sunday night.
2. Snow, sleet, and freezing rain on Sunday night might change to rain on Monday
3. Questions remain on Monday’s forecast
4. Another weak system on Tuesday?
The main story is our impending winter weather event. One of many over the past ten days. At least, for some.
The difference this time around will be that everyone should pick up some measurable snow and sleet. And, road conditions will be cold. Thus, whatever does fall will stick to the roadways. Secondary roads will quickly become snow and ice covered. As always, use care.
The focus of this event will not be totals. The focus will be on impact. Some slick roads likely on Sunday into Sunday night. Temperatures will rise above freezing on Monday morning. We will be mild by Tuesday into the rest of the week. Sixties are possible on Thursday or Friday.
Timing of snow and sleet/freezing rain:
Southeast Missouri – the steadier precipitation will arrive after 3 am on Sunday morning. But, some scattered snow is possible at any given time on Saturday night.
Southern Illinois – a period of light snow is possible between 9 pm and 4 am. Perhaps steadier precipitation from 5 am onward.
Western Kentucky – Mostly after sunrise. Although, a period of light snow is possible before sunrise. Light. Most of the steadier wintry mix arrives on Sunday morning. The precipitation should last most of the day.
Northwest Tennessee – same as western Kentucky. See above.
There remains some questions on the storm track for Monday. Another area of low pressure will develop to our south. This will throw precipitation back over parts of our region. Most likely the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and Tennessee. But, with temperatures rising above freezing on Monday morning, some of that should be rain. The exact time of change over on Monday morning will depend just how far north and west that second system tracks.
As the system pulls away there could be a brief change back over to snow.
Totals
Light totals are anticipated. Perhaps 1-2″. Sleet and freezing rain will keep snow totals down. If this was all snow then there would probably be 2-4″. But, wintry mix should keep totals down. Again, focus is not on totals. Focus is on impact. Slick and hazardous road conditions.
Here is the updated probability chart.
Here is the latest WRF model guidance. Notice how it shows snow accumulation over parts of the area. BUT, not all. That is because of sleet and freezing rain keeping snow totals down. Keep that in mind. There might be very little snow accumulation in some of our counties.
Here is the GFS model guidance. Just models. Not gospel. One model is never exactly right. Usually I take a blend of models and weight it towards the one I believe will be more accurate.
Again, notice very little accumulation over parts of the area. That is because of sleet and freezing rain.
Let me show you the Canadian GEM model. It shows heavier precipitation over parts of the region. This is because it is tracking the second area of low pressure further north and west than other models.
IF this happens then precipitation totals over the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and Tennessee would be heavier. But, not all of this is frozen. We go above freezing late Sunday night or Monday morning. These are liquid totals.
Here are the 9 am temperatures for Monday morning. We are going above freezing on Monday morning.
Sunday – Wintry mix likely. Snow, sleet, and light freezing rain.
Saturday night – Period of light snow. Then steadier precipitation developing after 3 or 4 am.
Sunday – Snow, sleet, and light freezing rain. High confidence.
Sunday night – Snow, sleet, and freezing rain are possible. Medium confidence.
Monday – We should go above freezing. This will change whatever precipitation is left over to rain.
Tuesday – A chance for snow or rain showers.
Increased wording for wintry mix vs snow.
Hazardous roads are my main concern. Road surfaces will be cold. Thus, snow and sleet should stick.
Yes, you may need to change your travel plans late Saturday night into Monday morning. Slick roadways are possible due to snow and sleet.
The wild card in this forecast will be widespread snow and sleet totals on Sunday and Sunday night. Right now it appears that 1-3″ of snow and sleet will fall across the region. Perhaps more focused on less vs more.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Widespread sleet, snow, and perhaps light freezing rain will develop over the region late Saturday night and more so on Sunday. The precipitation will last into Sunday evening.
We could have additional precipitation on Monday, but lower confidence on this happening.
The WPC has put this map out. This is through Monday morning at 6 am. Quite a bit of precipitation along the KY/TN border. This needs to be monitored.
Here is the latest NOAA map. This is liquid totals and not frozen. In other words, if everything were melted down.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
The thunderstorm threat level will be a ZERO through next Wednesday.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
