Sunday, March 31, 2019 Update for subscribers and non-subscribers.

Click one of the links below to take you directly to each section.

Do you have questions or suggestions? If so, please email me. Beaudodson@usawx.com

Dry Sunday through Wednesday.
Widespread frost and freeze likely Sunday night/Monday morning.
Rain chances increase by late Wednesday night into Thursday night.

Today: Those with agricultural interests will deal with freezing temperatures tonight and Monday morning.
.
Tomorrow: No.

Confidence rating explained.

High confidence is 70% to 100%. This means that the forecast is likely to verify.
Medium confidence is 40% through 60%. This means that there could be adjustments in the forecast.
Low confidence is 0% to 30%. This means that dramatic changes in the forecast are likely.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

Today through Tuesday night.

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? No.
Is severe weather in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is Flash flooding in the forecast? No. General river flooding will continue.

Wednesday through Saturday

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? No.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor updates. Storms are possible late Wednesday night into Thursday night.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? No. General river flooding will continue.

* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties
.

Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
Click here

March 31, 2019
Sunday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. Colder. Breezy, at times.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48° SE MO 44° to 48° South IL 44° to 48° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46° West KY 46° to 48° NW TN 48° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: North 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6 Medium
Sunrise: 6:43 AM
.
Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Colder. Frost and freeze conditions may impact sensitive plants.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 30° to 32° SE MO 25° to 30° South IL 25° to 30° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 26° to 30° West KY 28° to 30° NW TN 28° to 30°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 23° to 26°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost and freeze likely.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:17PM
Moonrise: 4:34 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 3:01 PM

April 1, 2019
Monday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cool.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° SE MO 52° to 54° South IL 53° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 53° to 56° NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7 High
Sunrise: 6:41 AM
.
Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° SE MO 34° to 36° South IL 34° to 36° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 34° to 36° West KY 34° to 36° NW TN 34° to 36°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 34°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:17 PM
Moonrise: 5:08 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 3:57 PM

April 2, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds. Milder.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° SE MO 60° to 64° South IL 60° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 64°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7 High
Sunrise: 6:40 AM
.
Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 44° SE MO 40° to 44° South IL 40° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° West KY 42° to 44° NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: South at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 44°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 10% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:18 PM
Moonrise: 5:40 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 4:54 PM

.
Wednesday: Partly sunny. A chance of a shower late Wednesday night. Highs in the middle 60’s. Lows in the upper 40’s. South winds at 6 to 12 mph

Thursday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms both Thursday and Thursday night. Highs in the lower to middle 60’s. Lows in the upper 40’s and lower 50’s. South to west wind at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.

Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the middle 60’s. Lows in the lower to middle 40’s. Northwest wind at 7 to 14 mph.

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Graphic-cast

These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above.

Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

.

Wind forecast

This will be updated on Monday.

.Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
.

Today and tomorrow: No severe weather.

Tuesday through Friday: A few storms are possible late Wednesday night into Thursday night. Lightning is the current concern. I will monitor the severe weather risk.

Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for winter storms, ice storms, and severe weather.

Log into your www.weathertalk.com

Click the personal notification settings tab.

Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.

Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows you liquid and does not assume precipitation type. In other words, melted precipitation totals.

48-hour precipitation outlook.

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.

Subscribers, do you need a forecast for an outdoor event?

Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

..

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

Calm weather into Wednesday.
A widespread freeze tonight/Monday morning.
Rain chances return late Wednesday night into Thursday night.

Current conditions.

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?

No major changes.

Does the forecast require action?

A freeze is going to occur Sunday night/Monday morning. Many areas will be below freezing six or more hours. This could damage some budding trees and sensitive plants.

.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

Forecast discussion.

We picked up some rain over the past 48 hours. Many areas received between 0.40″ and 0.80″. There were some spots that recorded more than that.

Thunderstorms were embedded within the line of showers. Those who found themselves under one of those storms experienced heavy downpours and gusty winds.

Thankfully, we were spared any severe thunderstorms. There were only a few reports of pea size hail.

Strong non-thunderstorm winds accompanied the frontal passage. Numerous locations reported 40 to 50 mph wind gusts.

Today will be calm and colder. There should be plenty of sunshine, as well.

Widespread freezing conditions will occur tonight.

Lows tonight will range from 26 to 30 degrees. Temperatures will be below freezing for an extended period of time. This will mean sensitive plants and budding trees could be damaged.

Here is the Sunday night GFS model animation of temperatures.

It may be a few degrees colder than this model is showing.

Click to enlarge.

The good news is that we will dry out today into the middle of the week.

We will also start to see temperatures moderate a bit as we move deeper into the new work week, as well.

Monday’s highs will mostly be in the 50’s. Lower 60’s by Tuesday. Middle 60’s by Wednesday! Not too bad. A slow increase with each passing day.

Clouds will return by Wednesday night and Thursday as another area of low pressure pushes through the region. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the system. It is too early to know if severe weather will be a concern. Monitor updates.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.

Here is the GFS model future-cast radar animation.

Date-stamp can be found in the upper left portion of the animation.

You can see our next rain maker. Green represents rain.

The bulk of this system will likely arrive on Thursday into Thursday night.

These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

*****

VIDEO UPDATES

These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.

The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but they may add one in the future.

The long-range video is a bit technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long range video.

NOTE: These are usually not updated on Saturday or Sunday unless there is active weather.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page

These are bonus videos.

I pay BAMwx to help with videos.

They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.

The Ohio Valley video does capture our region.

Videos will be updated on Monday.s.
The Ohio Valley video

This video is a bit more meteorologically technical.

Videos will be updated on Monday.s.
Long Range Video

Videos will be updated on Monday.s.

The Missouri Valley video (is usually updated during the late morning hours).

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page
.

I bring the following long-range outlooks from the BAMwx team. They are excellent long-range forecasters. These are more detailed than the images above.

.
Remember, long-range outlooks are always going to be a lower confidence level than short-term forecasts.

.
Long-range forecasting is not an exact science. There are many variables that determine the eventual outcome of a long-range forecast.

Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 64 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.10″
.
This outlook covers March 29th through April 4th

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 45 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.10″
.
This outlook covers April 5th through April 11th

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.

.
Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees

Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.50″ to 1.90″
.
This outlook covers April 12th through April 25th

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.

Outlook definitions
EC= Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal

...

April temperature and precipitation outlook

May temperature and precipitation outlook

Here is the preliminary March, April, and May temperature and precipitation forecast.

Temperature outlook

Precipitation outlook

Preliminary summer outlook

Did you know that you can find me on Twitter? Click here to view my Twitter weather account.

Not receiving app/text messages?

Make sure you have the correct app/text options turned on. Do that under the personal notification settings tab at www.weathertalk.com. Red is off. Green is on.
USE THE APP. Verizon and ATT have been throttling text messages. The app receives the same messages instantly. Texts can take longer. Please, use the app. It is under Beau Dodson Weather in the app stores.

A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

To learn more visit their website. Click here.

Click here to go to the top of the page

WeatherBrains Episode 688

Our Guest WeatherBrain for this week is Dina Knightly, formerly an employee of The Weather Channel who now works for IBM as a senior meteorologist. She was a former weather producer on The Weather Channel’s Wake Up With Al, Weather Center Live and Weekend Recharge. She has a bachelors degree in Atmospheric Science from The Ohio State University where she earned a private pilots license. Before her weather career, she had over seven years with Continental Airlines as a customer service agent and operations specialist.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

Continued discussions about the dangers of manufactured homes in tornado situations
The problems of long-range forecasts
What will the weather enterprise look like in 10 years?
Alabama hailers on 3/25/19
The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
and more!

.

.
.