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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Monday night – Partly cloudy and mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
What impact is expected? Isolated storm risk. Lightning would be the main concern and gusty winds. That is if a storm even forms.
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. A chance for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly northern and western counties. Warm.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80’s to around 90 degrees
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Less than 30%
What impact is expected? Not expecting issues. But, will monitor trends in the data.
Tuesday night – Partly cloudy. Warm. Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms as the night wears on. Moving in from the northwest.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Increasing to 40%-60% late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.
What impact is expected? A few storms possible. Locally heavy rain and lightning if storms do develop. Best chances far northern and western counties before 12 am and then increase to the southeast after 12 am.
Wednesday – Quite a few clouds with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Especially before 3 pm.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 80’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Rain may occur and put a damper on outdoor activities.
Is severe weather expected? Not likely
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%
What impact is expected? Will need to monitor for a few storms in the region. Lightning being the main concern. Gusty winds perhaps. Locally heavy rain.
Wednesday night – Cloudy. A chance for some showers and thunderstorms. Mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 60’s
Winds: South/southwest winds at 5-10 mph possible becoming northwest as a front moves through the region
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
What impact is expected? Will need to monitor for a few storms in the region. Lightning being the main concern. Gusty winds perhaps. Locally heavy rain.
Thursday – Quite a few clouds with a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms tapering off from the northwest to southeast through the day.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 80’s
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% Tapering off to the southeast through the day.
What impact is expected? Will need to monitor for a few storms in the region. Lightning being the main concern. Gusty winds perhaps. Locally heavy rain.
Thursday night – Decreasing clouds. Perhaps an evening shower for our southeastern counties.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60’s
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? Nothing major
Friday – Partly cloudy with a chance for an evening shower.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s to around 80 degrees.
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low/medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% chance
What impact is expected? Maybe a few showers.
Saturday and Sunday should be mostly dry and very nice temperatures. Highs in the 70’s with lows in the 50’s. Beautiful weather.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Tuesday will be the last hot day for awhile.
2. Precipitation chances increase Tuesday night into Wednesday.
3. Second cold front on Friday could produce some more showers
4. Big cool down by next weekend! It should feel more like fall by Friday into Sunday.
Have you enjoyed your holiday break? I hope so! It sure was warm enough. But, that was the forecast. No surprises.
Since Friday, we have had a couple of thunderstorms develop in the heat of the day. Most of those storms were over our far western counties and then a few in western Kentucky. Mainly southeast counties. One or two storms even produced high winds. One in particular formed in Trigg County, Kentucky on Sunday. A down burst most likely. That can happen with little or no warning (there was not a warning on that cell). A down burst can occur and only impact an area a few hundred yards in length. Hard to warn on.
Here is one damage photograph. Some tin roof damage. Likely 50-65 mph winds. Again this was in Trigg County on Sunday. Isolated thunderstorm event. Image was sent to the Paducah, Kentucky NWS from emergency managers.
The big story for the upcoming week will be our well advertised cool down. This cool down will arrive on Friday and continue into early next week. Temperatures will average below normal through the period. Expect lows into the 50’s on a few nights. Do I hear you already cracking the windows open? 🙂
But, first we have to get from point A to point B. Two cold fronts will push through the region. One front will arrive on Wednesday. Another front will arrive on Friday. It is the second front that will push the cooler air into the region. The first front will lower the temperatures a little bit, but not as much as the second front.
The cold fronts will pump into warm and moist air. That means some showers and thunderstorms will occur as the front lifts the warm air upward.
The risk for severe weather appears minimal with the fronts. Not saying there can’t be an isolated severe thunderstorm, but the odds don’t appear to favor severe storms.
Lightning will be the main concern for football practice or other outdoor events. Brief heavy downpours. I can not promise you that everyone will pick up measurable rainfall. But, it does look like the best chances for precipitation so far this month. I think many will pick up a decent 0.30″-0.60″. A few spots could pick up more. Locally heavy thunderstorms can always drop a bit more rain, as we know!
The best chances for rain will arrive on Tuesday night into Wednesday. The rain will first knock on our northwestern doors. That will occur late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. From there the precipitation will slide southeast. Pretty much the whole area will have rain shower and thunderstorm chances during the day on Wednesday.
Here is the WRF NAM Model. High resolution model from weatherbell.com
This is for 7 am on Wednesday morning. You can see precipitation along the cold front. This precipitation is moving from the northwest towards the southeast.
The precipitation will then end from northwest to southeast on Wednesday evening and night. Small precipitation chances will linger into Thursday. Especially true the further east and south you travel in the region.
Let’s look at those graphics. These are from tropicaltidbits and are the GFS model. Green represents rain and thunderstorms. Yellow represents heavier rain and storms.
This first map is for Tuesday evening around 7 pm. You can see the rain mostly to our northwest (but perhaps creeping into southeast Missouri and western Illinois). That precipitation is along the cold front. It is moving southeast.
Then by late Tuesday night into the early wee hours of Wednesday morning (around 12 am to 2 am) you can see the precipitation shifting a bit further to the south and east.
By Wednesday around 11 am to 1 pm the rain showers will continue to push through our region. Our best rain chances should be on Wednesday into Wednesday evening.
This next image is the 5 pm to 8 pm time frame on Wednesday night. Rain showers continue over our region. Some thunderstorms, as well.
By Thursday morning we still have some rain showers in the region. You can see a 1020 mb high north of North Dakota. That high pressure center will push southward into the United States on Friday into the weekend. This will help push cooler air into our region. Less humid, as well.
A second cold front could produce some scattered showers on Friday and Friday evening. I need to work out the timing of that front. Some data shows it moving through mostly dry. Other data produces rain showers and possibly a few storms.
By Saturday you can see the 1022 mb high over Missouri. Nice cool and refreshing air for our region. Thank you Canadian high pressure!
The cool air then arrives on Friday night. By Saturday and Sunday high temperatures will only be in the 70’s. Lows will dip into the 50’s. This will continue into at least Monday.
In the longer range…the charts are showing unsettled weather as we push into the middle or end of next week with additional rain chances. Long way off and plenty of time to monitor.
Let’s load up a few temperature forecast graphics so you can see the changes that are coming.
This first graphic is for Tuesday. Summer continues.
Wednesday high temperatures
Friday high temperatures
And finally, Saturday
See the changes? Nice!!!!
Check out the lows for next weekend. Any complaints?
Coffee on the back porch?
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Tuesday will remain mostly dry over the region. However, as we push into the late afternoon and especially the overnight hours you can expect shower and thunderstorm chances to increase from the northwest. By Wednesday morning we should see precipitation on radar over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. This will push south and east through the day on Wednesday.
Here is a broad-brushed rainfall outlook from weatherbell.com You get the general idea from this graphic.
We will have much better rain chances by Tuesday night into Thursday night. A couple of cold fronts will push into the region from the northwest. Expect 0.30″-0.60″ of rain over parts of the area. I can’t promise everyone will experience rain. But, quite a few people will pick their first decent rainfall of the month.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be near ONE on Tuesday. Better chances on Tuesday night into Thursday morning. A ONE and perhaps a very low end level TWO risk for that time period. Really believe the severe weather risk with this front is tiny.
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Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Increasing chances for some storms from the northwest late on Tuesday night.
Wednesday: Thunderstorms are likely. Not expecting widespread severe weather concerns.
Thursday: Thunderstorms are still possible on Thursday, as well.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated
The weather will become a bit more active as we approach Tuesday night into Thursday. A cold front (two actually) will push across the area. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front.
The best shower and thunderstorm chances will arrive over our northwest counties late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and over the rest of the region on Wednesday.
Showers and storms should linger into Thursday morning. Then they should end from northwest to southeast.
Another cold front will push into the region on Friday. This front might produce a few showers, as well.
The main concern this week will be lightning. Secondary concerns would be brief heavy rainfall. And then perhaps some gusty winds with thunderstorms. The risk for severe weather is very small.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the former Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served them proudly for ten years before expanding my job role to additional counties in western Kentucky.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
