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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Friday – Partly sunny and hot. Much of the same.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 90’s
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
Friday night – Partly cloudy and mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees.
Winds: East winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
Saturday – Partly sunny and hot. Much of the same.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 90’s
Winds: East winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
Saturday night – Partly cloudy and mild. Small thunderstorm chances.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? No major concerns. Very isolated chance for a storm.
Sunday – Partly sunny and hot. Much of the same.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower 90’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? Isolated storm risk.
Sunday night – Partly cloudy and mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? Isolated storm risk.
Monday – Some clouds and warm. Much of the same. Perhaps a few thunderstorms. Best chances might end up over our northwest counties. But, it still several days away. Let’s keep an eye on it.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80’s (if we have more sun than expected then 90 to 92 could occur)
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
What impact is expected? Isolated storm risk. Lightning would be the main concern and gusty winds. That is if a storm even forms.
Monday night – Partly cloudy and mild. A few showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
What impact is expected? Isolated storm risk. Lightning would be the main concern and gusty winds. That is if a storm even forms.
Probabilities for precipitation on Tuesday into Thursday will likely need to be adjusted as we move forward. I need more confidence in the model solutions before doing that.
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. A chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. Warm.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
What impact is expected? Will need to monitor for a few storms in the region. Lightning being the main concern. Gusty winds perhaps.
Tuesday night – Cloudy. A chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
What impact is expected? Will need to monitor for a few storms in the region. Lightning being the main concern. Gusty winds perhaps. Locally heavy rain.
Wednesday – Quite a few clouds with a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 80’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? Not likely
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
What impact is expected? Will need to monitor for a few storms in the region. Lightning being the main concern. Gusty winds perhaps. Locally heavy rain.
Wednesday night – Cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms. Mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 60’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No, but monitor updates.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
What impact is expected? Will need to monitor for a few storms in the region. Lightning being the main concern. Gusty winds perhaps. Locally heavy rain.
Thursday – Quite a few clouds with a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 80’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No, but monitor updates.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-60%
What impact is expected? Will need to monitor for a few storms in the region. Lightning being the main concern. Gusty winds perhaps. Locally heavy rain.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Warm days continue! Above normal temperatures.
2. Just small thunderstorm chances
3. Increasingly unsettled weather next week
Well, the warm beat goes on! We are going to rack up a bunch of above normal temperature days. At least through the weekend and likely into next week.
Numerous locations will likely be well into the 90’s Friday into Sunday. Heat index values could even approach 100 degrees. Some data (the GFS model) pops temperatures into the upper 90’s. That seems a bit overdone. Either way…it will be hot over the coming days. Use care, as always. Especially since it is a holiday weekend. I know many people will be outside.
The good news is that the holiday weekend appears to be shaping up as mostly dry. There will be a 10%-20% chance for some thunderstorms. That means there should be some storms on radar from time to time, but isolated. Odds favor your house remaining dry. Not that you want it to remain dry. Some of you have told me that you need rain. It is becoming a bit dry.
We need to get some moisture in the ground before fall fire season. That precipitation could occur next week. But, let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
Let’s look at the last seven days of precipitation. The percent of normal precipitation. This indicates that it is indeed a bit dry. Appears to be anywhere from 10%-30% of normal precipitation. Dry.
How much precipitation has fallen? Keep in mind there are isolated spots that did pick up a heavy shower or storm over the last seven days. But, most areas remain dry.
So, the bottom line is that in the short term it has become a bit dry. We need rain.
Speaking of rain!
Next week the pattern may shift a bit. The ridge of high pressure that has been responsible for our hot and humid weather could shift back southwest and south. If that happens it does open the door for the jet stream to dip southward again. That would lead to increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.
This would be in response to a cold front dipping in from the northwest and north. The front will be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms.
As is typically the case in the long range the details are a bit murky.
There are currently two camps of thinking.
The first camp is the EC model. I usually like the EC. It does well in the long range. The EC breaks the ridge down on Monday and Tuesday. It shows multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms starting late Monday and lasting into Thursday. Locally heavy rain and even some hefty thunderstorms would be a concern if the EC is correct. Some spots could pick up several inches of rain. Again, if the EC model is correct.
The other camp is the good ole GFS. As you may remember, the GFS is not my favorite model. But, sometimes it does okay.
The GFS would dip a cold front into our region by Wednesday or Thursday. It is slower in breaking down the ridge vs the EC model. It would also hold off the best rain chances until the middle of next week.
We have plenty of time to monitor all of this. The good news is that most will remain dry through Monday. Again, a few storms will pop up through the weekend. Isolated, at best.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No major widespread rainfall events anticipated through Sunday. There could be a few scattered storms over the weekend. Of course, this time of the year thunderstorms can produce pockets of very heavy rain. Keep that in mind. Even if it is isolated.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be near ZERO for Friday. I could have gone with a ONE. Very small thunderstorm chances.
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Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Tuesday: Monitor updates
Wednesday: Monitor updates
Hot weather will continue into the weekend. There will only be small thunderstorm chances through Sunday night. Anywhere from a 10%-20% risk. That basically means there will be some storms on radar from time to time, but the odds favor your location remaining dry. Of course some unlucky soul could have a rain shower on their picnic.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the former Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
