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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Wednesday night – Partly cloudy and mild. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
Thursday – Partly sunny and warm. Much of the same. Some morning fog possible.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 90’s
Winds: East winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
Thursday night – Partly cloudy and mild. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees.
Winds: Variable winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
Friday – Partly sunny and warm. Much of the same.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower 90’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
Friday night – Partly cloudy and mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
Saturday – Partly sunny and warm. Much of the same.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower 90’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? Not expecting any widespread concerns.
Saturday night – Partly cloudy and mild. Small thunderstorm chances.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
What impact is expected? Will need to monitor for a few storms in the region. Lightning being the main concern. Gusty winds perhaps.
Sunday – Partly sunny and warm. Much of the same.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
What impact is expected? Will need to monitor for a few storms in the region. Lightning being the main concern. Gusty winds perhaps.
Sunday night – Partly cloudy and mild.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s to around 70 degrees.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
What impact is expected? Will need to monitor for a few storms in the region. Lightning being the main concern. Gusty winds perhaps.
Monday – Some clouds and warm. Much of the same. Perhaps a few thunderstorms. Questionable this far out. Low confidence.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 80’s (if we have more sun than expected then 90 to 92 could occur)
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
What impact is expected? Will need to monitor for a few storms in the region. Lightning being the main concern. Gusty winds perhaps.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Summer heat
2. Isolated storms over the weekend?
3. Very uncertain pattern shaping up next week. Heavy rain potential in some of the charts? But, confidence is low (for now)
Well, if anyone thought that summer was over they have certainly been smacked in the face by this current weather pattern. Above normal temperatures will be with us the rest of the week and possibly into part of next week. The pattern may break down a bit next week with increasing clouds and precipitation chances.
The jet stream is well to our north. A ridge of high pressure is situated over our region. This ridge is helping to pump temperatures up into the 90’s. Ick weather for some? Summer lovers are happy. One last hurrah (is that a word) before fall arrives.
Let’s take a look at the jet stream on the 500 mb map. Part of the jet. This is 18,000′ up in the atmosphere.
This is a rather stagnant weather pattern. I don’t see any significant changes through Sunday and perhaps Monday. That is when question marks start to pop up. Perhaps a pattern shift next week. Key word is perhaps.
If you believe the EC model (usually my model of choice) we will start to see chances for showers and thunderstorms increase on Monday and last right on through next Thursday or Friday. It shows several disturbances moving in from the northwest. This does make sense based on what is happening out in the Pacific and a rather significant trough developing well to our west, which will eventually push eastward.
There has been some back and forth on this subject. Certain model runs occasionally keep precipitation out of our region through Tuesday. The latest trends are moving towards at least chances for storms on Monday and then increase chances Tuesday into Thursday of next week. The data indicates several thunderstorm complexes and the possibility of heavy rain over parts of the Missouri and Ohio Valleys. Too soon to comment on severe weather risk. Normally I like to wait until a day or two before an event to start discussing that subject.
Bottom line is that Thursday into Sunday should be 90% dry. I can’t rule out some scattered storms Saturday into Sunday. But, the coverage should be rather limited. Of course any storms in this air mass could produce locally very heavy rainfall totals. But, isolated is the key word here.
Monday will remain questionable. I had Monday as partly cloudy with a 20%-30% chance for storms. We will have to see if those forecast thoughts hold. I certainly would not cancel any plans or anything like that.
I have very low confidence in how next week pans out. Seasons are changing and fast moving weather systems could complicate the forecast over the coming weeks. Always tricky to forecast a week or more in advance. As always, things will become more clear as we move forward
I will keep you updated, as always! Enjoy the warm weather. Fall will be here soon enough.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No major widespread rainfall events anticipated through Saturday. There could be a few scattered storms over the weekend. Of course, this time of the year thunderstorms can produce pockets of very heavy rain. Keep that in mind. Even if it is isolated.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be near ZERO for Thursday.
.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated
No major concerns for the coming days. Calm weather. Hot.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the former Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
