Wednesday, September 27, 2017
Heat wave next week?
Highlights
1. Cold front moves through today
2. Small shower chances with the front
3. Highs in the 70’s Thursday through Sunday
4. Heat wave with 90’s next week?
Our Long-awaited cold front is arriving. The front will move through the region today.
There will be some clouds with the front and gusty winds. For those in need of rain, I do not have good news.
A long dry spell is forecast for our region. We will likely enter drought conditions soon (officially). The exception would be those areas who received heavy rain in Harvey and Irma.
Temperatures on Thursday through Sunday will be near normal to below normal. That will mean daily highs in the 70’s and lows in the 50’s.
I have been dropping hints, over the last few days, that I was leaning more and more to another heat wave next week.
The only real question left, is how hot will it be.
I can not rule out a repeat of this past week.
I can safely promise you many days in the 80’s. Just not sure, yet, about 90’s. Not what some of you wanted to hear.
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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and extreme northwest Tennessee.
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September 26, 2017
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 63 to 66 IL ~ 63 to 66 KY ~ 63 to 66 TN ~ 63 to 66
Winds: South at 0 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Slight chance wet roadways and lightning. Lower visibility if fog forms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 27, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm and humid ahead of the front. A 20% for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures may fall late in the day. This will depend on the speed of the cold front. Dew points will drop behind the front, as well.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 85 IL ~82 to 86 KY ~ 84 to 88 TN ~ 84 to 88
Winds: West winds becoming north and northwest at 8 to 14 mph. Winds could be gusty along the cold front.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Isolated lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Not at this time
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog possible if we clear out.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 58 to 64 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: North at 8 to 16 mph. Gusts to 25 mph before midnight.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Patchy fog could lower visibility in some areas.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated (if anything at all).
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 28, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler. Some afternoon fair weather cumulus clouds possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78 IL ~74 to 78 KY ~ 74 to 78 TN ~ 74 to 78
Winds: Northerly at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Not at this time
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some evening clouds. Becoming mostly clear and cooler. Patchy fog.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~ 50 to 55 KY ~ 50 to 55 TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 29, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler. Some afternoon fair weather cumulus clouds possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 75 to 80 IL ~ 74 to 78 KY ~ 74 to 78 TN ~ 75 to 80
Winds: Northerly at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Not at this time
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cooler.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 54 IL ~ 48 to 54 KY ~ 48 to 54 TN ~ 48 to 54
Winds: North and northeast at 0 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 30, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler. Some afternoon fair weather cumulus clouds possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74 IL ~68 to 74 KY ~ 68 to 74 TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: North and northeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Not at this time
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 54 IL ~ 48 to 54 KY ~ 48 to 54 TN ~ 48 to 54
Winds: North and northeast at 0 to 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 1, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Some afternoon fair weather cumulus clouds possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78 IL ~74 to 78 KY ~ 74 to 78 TN ~ 74 to 78
Winds: Easterly at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Not at this time
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few passing clouds. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 56 IL ~ 52 to 56 KY ~ 52 to 56 TN ~ 52 to 56
Winds: Southeast at 0 to 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 2, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82 IL ~76 to 82 KY ~ 76 to 82 TN ~ 76 to 82
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Not at this time
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Not as cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 58 to 64 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: South at 0 to 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
WILD swings in the model for next week. Some of the guidance is showing 50’s and rain. Some of the guidance is showing 90’s and sun. Needless to say, I will be looking a bit deeper into next weeks forecast.
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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Tuesday night through Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible through Wednesday. Most of the area will remain dry. A few spots could pick up locally heavy rain. That will be the exception and not the rule.
If storms form, then they could produce locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and dime to nickel size hail. The risk for severe weather is minimal.
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Overview
Highlights of the forecast.
- The cold front is almost here
- Nice weekend ahead of us!
- Drought to worsen over portions of the region.
- Heat next week or cool next week?
Short range comments
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(See the long range discussion further down in this post)
The short range forecast centers around a cold front that will pass through the region on Wednesday/Wednesday night.
It appears there will not be much rain associated with the front. A few showers and storms are possible, but the vast majority of the region will remain dry.
The good news, for those wanting cooler air, is that temperatures are going to drop from the 90’s into the 70’s.
I suppose you think September has been hot and humid. To some extent, you would be right.
Let’s look at the high and low temperature numbers for September, thus far. These are from the Paducah, KY NWS.
The blue color represents below normal temperatures. The orange color represents above normal temperatures.
Click image to enlarge.
12 below normal temperature days and 13 (counting the 24th and 25th) above normal temperature days.
Highs on Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday should top out in the 70’s. Overnight lows by Friday morning will dip into the 50’s. I can’t rule out some upper 40’s this weekend. Autumn air.
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 78 degrees. Normal low temperatures are around 54 degrees.
Here are the 7 AM anomaly maps for Tuesday, Saturday, and Sunday. Quite the change!
See long range discussion further down in this update.
Temperature Forecast
Tuesday night low temperatures
Wednesday high temperatures
Wednesday night low temperatures
Thursday high temperatures
Thursday night low temperatures
Dew point scale
Dew points are what control how you feel outside.
Wednesday dew point temperatures
Thursday dew point temperatures
Lower dew points will mean a nicer feel to the atmosphere.
Friday dew point temperatures
Autumn dew points! Nicer.
Saturday dew points
Sunday dew points
Long range forecast discussion
This discussion covers Friday through next Wednesday.
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I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s. I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
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