Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

Remember that weather evolves.  Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.

The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region.  These are the averages.

BURN BANS IN SOME COUNTIES.  Check with your local fire departments before burning brush.

Friday night –  Cloudy.  A chance for a shower or two.  Light, if they occur.
Temperatures:  Lows in the lower 60’s.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   20%-30%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.
What impact is expected?  None

Don’t forget to Tweet me your sunrise/sunset photos, storm photos, or other weather related photographs.  I will try to re-tweet them or use them in the blog.
https://twitter.com/BeauDodson

Saturday – Quite a few clouds in the region.  Some light showers and sprinkles scattered in the region.  Rainfall totals will be light.
Temperatures:  Highs in the middle to upper 70’s.
Winds:  Northeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?  40%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —

Saturday night –  Some clouds.  A scattered shower or two possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the lower 60’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   20%-30%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.
What impact is expected?  None

Sunday – Some clouds.  Small chance for a few showers.
Temperatures:  Highs in the  lower 80’s.
Winds:  South/southeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

Sunday night –  Some clouds.  Mild for late September.
Temperatures:  Lows in the lower 60’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   10%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.
What impact is expected?  None

Monday – Partly sunny and mild.
Temperatures:  Highs in the lower 80’s.  Perhaps even middle 80’s if we have more sunshine.
Winds:  South/southeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.
I am watching for some showers and storms on Tuesday.  Low confidence.

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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

Highlights

1.   Increasing clouds for Friday night into the weekend.
2.  A few showers are possible.  Light in nature.
3.  Mild temperatures for the weekend.
4.  Watching a cold front for Tuesday/Wednesday.

The weather has been a wee bit boring for the weatherman.  But, to be honest…I like a break now and then.  Not too difficult to forecast of late.  I know this is going to change as we move into October and the jet stream returns southward.  I am already seeing signs of of change in the long range models.

The new long range cycle will set up over the coming weeks.  This is how some meteorologists get a feel for what will happen during the winter months.  There are some very big players on the field this winter.  Huge areas of warm water off the West Coast and East Coast of the United States.  El Nino, of course (I am sure you heard about El Nino in the Pacific).  And perhaps some blocking in the Atlantic.  It will make for a difficult winter forecast.  I will say more as we move into late October.

For now, let’s deal with the weekend weather.

An upper level low, that I have been talking about over the last few days, will back westward into our region Friday night into Saturday.  It will be accompanied by clouds.  It will also be responsible for a few light showers on radar from time to time.  Mainly late Friday night into Saturday night.  A few spots could pick up 0.05″-0.10″ of rain.  I suppose if a band of rain sets up somewhere that a bit more would fall in those areas.  We will see.

WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —

Temperatures will be a bit lower on Saturday because of thick cloud cover.  Highs should remain in the 70’s.

I am watching another system around Tuesday into Tuesday night.  Low confidence.  That system could pop a thunderstorm or two.  Widespread heavy rain does not appear to be in the cards.  Our dry conditions will likely worsen, before they improve.  Good for the farmers, I suppose.  They need to work in the fields.  Bad for field fires.  Burn bans are being issued in some counties.  Please talk to your local fire department before burning brush or debris.

There is a lunar eclipse on Sunday night.  See the graphics below.  Just not sure about cloud cover, yet.  We should have some clouds in the region.  Will there be too much cloud cover to ruin the eclipse?  Not sure, yet.  Watch for updates.

Do you own a NOAA Weather Radio?  This is why you should own a weather radio.

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Enjoy your weekend!

How about a couple of photographs?

It is snowing in Fairbanks, Alaska today.  The NWS tweeted out this photo.  I guess we should be thankful for our nice weather.

Here is a nice sunset photograph from Twitter.  Nothing like natures canvas.

LUNAR ECLIPSE SUNDAY NIGHT.

But, there might be clouds in our region.  Could mess up the viewing opportunity.  We shall see.

The National Weather Service is planning a town hall meeting!  The first one will be in Sikeston, Missouri.

Are you interested in becoming a severe weather spotter?  We need more spotters.

Radars

WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —

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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

Rain chances over the weekend will fall into the scattered/spotty category.  Rainfall amounts will not be much.  Many areas will remain dry.  A few spots could pick up 0.05″-0.10″ of rain.  Perhaps a little more than that if a band of rain sets up somewhere.  This will move in from the east/southeast.

Will monitor for a possible cold front next week.  Maybe some showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder associated with the front (around Tuesday or Wednesday).

Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Thunderstorm threat level will be near ZERO for Saturday and Sunday.

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Saturday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

No major concerns.  Some light showers around over the weekend.

No severe weather in the forecast.

I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page

Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

Here are some current forecast hydrographs.  These will be updated each day with new information.

Smithland Lock and Dam

Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage

Cairo, Illinois

Cape Girardeau, Missouri

Current Temperatures Around The Local Area

We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

NOTE:  Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes).  Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.

Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.

Regional Radar

Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page

Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.

I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.

Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement.  Click your county to view the latest information.

Missouri Warnings

Illinois Warnings

Kentucky Warnings

Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. 

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

• Communicate in simple terms
• To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
• Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
• Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
• Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.