Monday morning update
Monday, September 25, 2017
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Hot weather to continue. Relief, however, is on the way!
Highlights
1. Hot weather today and Tuesday with only slim chances for storms.
2. Cold front arrives on Wednesday. Small rain chances with the front.
3. Highs in the 70’s on Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
4. Some locations may dip into the upper 40’s by late week.
5. Dry weather Thursday through Sunday.
The main weather story over the next 48 hours will be the heat and humidity. It does not feel like autumn. That will soon change.
Isolated storms are likely today, but coverage should be less than Sunday’s thunderstorms.
A few locations picked up over an inch of rain on Sunday afternoon. Gusty winds and small hail accompanied the most intense cells. The vast majority of the region remained dry.
A cold front will pass through the region on Wednesday. This front will deliver lower temperatures and lower dew points. It will feel nice on Thursday. That will last into the weekend.
Great camping weather Thursday through Sunday. A little chilly at night around the campfire.
I am watching a weak front on Sunday night/Monday. I am watching another front towards the end of next week.
Drought conditions, for those in drought, will worsen.
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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and extreme northwest Tennessee.
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September 24, 2017
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Scattered evening storms over far southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee. Otherwise, small thunderstorm chances elsewhere. Evening clouds giving way to clear sky conditions. Patchy fog. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 63 to 66 IL ~ 63 to 66 KY ~ 63 to 66 TN ~ 63 to 66
Winds: South at 0 to 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A chance for evening wet roadways and lightning. Lower visibility if fog forms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps widely scattered early.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 25, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Some cumulus clouds. Warm and humid. A 10% chance of an isolated afternoon thunderstorm
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 90 IL ~ 85 to 88 KY ~ 86 to 90 TN ~ 86 to 90
Winds: Southeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Evening clouds giving way to clear sky conditions. Patchy fog. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 63 to 66 IL ~ 63 to 66 KY ~ 63 to 66 TN ~ 63 to 66
Winds: South at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Slight chance for evening wet roadways and lightning. Lower visibility if fog forms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 26, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Some cumulus clouds. Warm and humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 90 IL ~ 86 to 90 KY ~ 86 to 90 TN ~ 86 to 90
Winds: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Isolated chance for wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 63 to 66 IL ~ 63 to 66 KY ~ 63 to 66 TN ~ 63 to 66
Winds: South at 0 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Slight chance wet roadways and lightning. Lower visibility if fog forms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 27, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. A 20% for showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will move through the region. Cooler.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 82 IL ~78 to 82 KY ~ 78 to 82 TN ~ 78 to 82
Winds: Northwest at 8 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Isolated lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Not at this time
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clearing. A slight chance for an evening shower over western Kentucky and the Missouri Bootheel.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 58 to 64 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: North at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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September 28, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler. Some afternoon fair weather cumulus clouds possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 82 IL ~78 to 82 KY ~ 78 to 82 TN ~ 78 to 82
Winds: Northerly at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Not at this time
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cooler.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58 IL ~ 54 to 58 KY ~ 54 to 58 TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Sunday night through Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. There is a slight chance for isolated thunderstorms each day. This is especially true during the heat of the day. The vast amount of the region will remain dry.
If storms form, then they could produce locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and dime to nickel size hail. The risk for severe weather is minimal.
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Overview
Highlights of the forecast.
- More warm weather
- Relief is on the way! Cooler temperatures
- For the most part, below normal precipitation will continue into next week.
Short range comments
(See the long range discussion further down in this post)
If I told you it was going to be warm on Monday and Tuesday, would you be surprised? I didn’t think so!
A slight chance for thunderstorms on Sunday evening, Monday afternoon, and Tuesday afternoon. The vast majority of the region will remain dry. A few spots will pick up a quick burst of rain.
Our amazing streak of warm weather is going to continue. Temperatures will be well above normal. Highs in the upper 80’s to around 90 degrees can be expected on both Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday might be a few degrees cooler, but the cooler air will likely hold off until Wednesday night into Sunday.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible into Wednesday, but for the most part, it will remain dry. Many of us need rain. Not everyone. I was reminded, over the past week, the portions of western Kentucky have received too much rainfall over the past month. We can think Harvey and Irma for that.
See the long range discussion below.
Temperature Forecast
Sunday night low temperatures
Monday high temperatures
Monday night low temperatures
Tuesday high temperatures
Tuesday night low temperatures
Dew point scale
Dew points are what control how you feel outside.
Click images to enlarge
Monday dew points
Tuesday dew points
Wednesday dew points
Thursday dew points
MUCH nicer air-mass.
Long range comments
Rather benign weather over the coming week. The big weather story will be cooler temperatures.
I am forecasting high temperatures in the 70’s on Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Overnight lows will be in the 50’s on Thursday night and perhaps some 40’s on Friday night!
It will actually feel like fall.
Thursday morning lows temperatures
Friday afternoon highs. Autumn.
Saturday high temperatures
Sunday high temperatures
The GFS model wants to bring another cold front into the region next Sunday night/Monday. Perhaps some showers. Plenty of time to monitor that front.
Sunday night rainfall totals via the GFS (next Sunday night)
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I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s. I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
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