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Key Seven-Day Weather Information
If your app is not receiving notifications, please email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com
Don’t forget that autumn tornado season is upon us. Severe weather isn’t uncommon in autumn.
Some years we have tornadoes and some years we don’t. There is no way of forecasting that (this far in advance). For now, no severe weather through Monday.
Make sure you have multiple ways of receiving severe weather information.
Don’t forget that I have partnered with TornadoCall. That service will call you if you are inside the severe thunderstorm or tornado warning polygon.
That is especially helpful at 1 AM. Many of our tornadoes are at night. A phone call will wake you up. I have used it for my family for over a decade.
It costs a little more than $1 a month. We have to pay for the phone calls, so there is a small charge.
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FORECAST OVERVIEW
Several more days of calm weather.
The next few days will be nice. Other than the on and off clouds.
Temperatures were below seasonal averages yesterday. The clouds once again kept it even cooler.
The primary weather story over the coming days will be whether the clouds clear out. We’ll likely have on-and-off clouds. That will mess with high temperatures.
Areas with more sun will pop into the 70s to near 80 degrees. Cloudier areas will stay cooler.
There are small chances of showers over southeast Missouri on Saturday and Saturday night.
It will be a bit warmer by Sunday and Monday. Perhaps Tuesday. The 80s will return.
A stronger storm system will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region towards the middle of next week. Right now, I am monitoring Tuesday through Thursday. Perhaps focused on Tuesday night and Wednesday. It is too early to know if severe weather will be a concern. Monitor updates. It is that time of the year.
It will turn cooler behind that system.
Here is the latest EC ensemble temperature forecast. The colored numbers are the mean of 50 model runs. As you can see, the charts show no extreme heat waves or concerns.
Enjoy today’s weather.
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real-time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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🌪️ Seven-Day Outlook ⛈️
September 24th through October 1st
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe thunderstorm risk: MONITOR. I am monitoring the middle of next week.
🌪️ Current tornado risk: NOT AT THIS TIME. Monitor next week’s forecast. It is too soon to know if severe weather is a concern.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS MEDIUM.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter..
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Seven-Day Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Next Wednesday. Maybe as early as Tuesday. The timing of the front will need to be monitored.
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? NO.
5. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? NO.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? NO.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
-> Rain chances will vary (county-by-county rain probabilities can be found below. Scroll down)
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Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points.
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⚠️ This won’t be exact because the graphic is trying to predict where summer storms will form.
⚠️ Summer thunderstorms can produce a wide range of totals.
Eastern View
Double-click on the images to enlarge them.
Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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Double-click maps to enlarge them.
* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
GFS
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Here is a map to help you find your general location.
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NAM 3K
* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Use this animation for the general idea. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 82 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?
Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account
You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.
Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)
🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.
Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.
Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.
Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)
GREEN IS ON
RED IS OFF
Want to add more products to your Beau Dodson Weather App?
Receive daily videos, weather blog updates on normal weather days and severe weather and winter storm days, your county by county weather forecast, and more!
Here is how to do add those additional products to your app notification settings!
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
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