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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Wednesday night – Mostly clear and cool. Patchy morning fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50’s.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
What impact is expected? None
Don’t forget to Tweet me your sunrise/sunset photos, storm photos, or other weather related photographs. I will try to retweet them or use them in the blog.
https://twitter.com/BeauDodson
Thursday – Partly sunny. A little warmer.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 80’s.
Winds: East winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation?
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Thursday night – Some clouds. Patchy morning for possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Partly sunny. Mild. Dry.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 80’s.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation?
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Friday night – A few clouds. A little milder.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60’s.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
What impact is expected? None
Saturday – Partly sunny. Mild for late September.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower 80’s.
Winds: East winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20% far southern counties in southeast Missouri and along the Kentucky and Tennessee border.
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Saturday night – Some clouds.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low to medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%–20% low confidence on precipitation chances
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
What impact is expected? None
Sunday – Some clouds. Small shower chances over southern and eastern counties. Low confidence on this.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower 80’s.
Winds: South/southeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low to medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Above normal temperatures expected into Friday
2. Some increase in clouds over the weekend.
3. Small rain chances over the weekend. Mainly south and east.
4. Lunar Eclipse on Sunday night
5. Watching the tropics next week. Maybe something in the Gulf of Mexico
6. Models show a more active jet stream as we push past October 4th or 5th. But, will they verify? Seasons are changing!
Well, how many ways can I say nice and dry. I guess we will find out before it is all said and done. No dramatic weather on the weather map for our region. And, that is the good news. But, dry weather will also persist into the weekend. That is the bad news for those longing for rain drops.
We will have a couple of features to monitor. One is an upper level low over the southeastern United States. It is forecast to back into our region and this will cause clouds to increase by Friday night into Sunday. Some models also spit out a few light showers and sprinkles. Mainly over our southern counties and southeastern counties. That would be Tennessee and perhaps into south central Kentucky. Low confidence on the rain. Higher confidence on some clouds.
Temperatures will remain at or above normal into the weekend. We are finally starting to dip into the 70’s for normal high temperatures. We will, however, remain in the 80’s for the most part on both Thursday and Friday. And, if we have more sun on Saturday and Sunday then lower 80’s again will be the general rule. Upper 70’s for sure.
There is nothing typical about this pattern. Some places have recorded almost no rain since August. Cough – dust – cough.
There will be a total eclipse of the moon (not to be confused with Total Eclipse of the Heart) on Sunday night. Graphics from timeanddate.com
For more information on the eclipse click this link – click here
WEATHERWISE WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?
The following discussion is not about forecast details. We all know that the models don’t do well in the long range. The discussion is more about a pattern change. Potential pattern change. Changing of seasons and how the jet stream will start to behave over the coming weeks.
The good news is that I am seeing some changes in the long range charts. Typically we see the northern jet stream become more active and shift southward in October and November. This means a more active weather pattern, for our region. Normally we see this start to show up in the charts right about now.
I see some of the long range models showing a more active storm track as we push past the first few days of October. Perhaps after October 4th-5th. Somewhere in there. That is a LONG way off for a forecast. But, models indicate the jet stream will become more active.
Models do not handle the change of seasons very well. One reason is because the jet stream typically becomes stronger and begins to interact more and more with the southern jet stream. As we push into fall this equals frequent shower and thunderstorm chances.
Early October is the time period that I closely monitor the long range cycle (LRC). Several meteorologists in the Central United States monitor the weather pattern around the first part of October into the first part of November. We believe those weeks are key to establishing our eventual winter pattern. That is one reason I tell you that it is a bit early for a solid winter forecast. Will it be an active storm track? Mild or cold winter? Rain or snow? Of course we know we will have all of the above. But, the long range cycle can tell us a bit more about how active a pattern will or won’t be. I will be monitoring.
If October and early November are busy then that could be a signal that we will also have a busy winter. Frequent storm systems to forecast.
Here is an example of what the models are showing in the long range. This would be the most intense system in over a month (if it verifies). It isn’t so much that I want to show you this one storm system. It is the idea that the pattern should become more active. And, if this is correct it would be right on time!
Look at this map below. That is a deep wound up area of low pressure north of the Great Lakes. It moved through the Central U.S. and then into the Great Lakes. This is for October 6th. Again, it is isn’t the specifics that are important. It is the idea that perhaps the pattern will finally shift towards a more active one. More rain and thunderstorms. Remember, we normally have some severe weather in October and November.
October 15th weather map from the wright-weather.com GFS
Let’s compare today’s jet stream map to the one around October 6th. See the difference? Dramatic differences.
This is the current jet stream map at 18,000 feet. The bright colors represent wind speeds. The red colors are stronger than the blue colors. The purple and pink colors are the highest wind speeds. Note the lack of strong winds in our region. Weak jet stream. Calm weather. Not a lot going on for us.
Now look at the dramatic changes in October. Seasons are changing, my friends. And, when the seasons change the weather changes. That normally means more active weather during the fall months. A much stronger jet stream.
You can see the much stronger jet stream towards the end of the first week of October. Will it verify? Time will tell.
There have been wild swings in the GFS model over the last few days. This is yet another signal that the jet stream may be about to push further south and a signal that the seasons are changing.
This first map is for next week. Look down in the Gulf of Mexico. A tropical system? Perhaps. The models have been hinting at this for some time. I am watching.
See the L in the Gulf of Mexico and the bright colors. The bright colors represent rain and storms. The L would be the tropical low. This is for Tuesday, September 29th.
This next map is for October 2nd. Rain in the Heartland? A low over Iowa with a trailing cold front into our region. The colors represent rain. Dark blue and green represent moderate rain or thunderstorms. Will October turn stormy? The GFS model believes it will.
And finally, one more system. This one is on October 9th. Again, long way out. Will it verify? The details likely will not. But, I want to simply show you that the seasons are changing and the jet stream will become more active.
The National Weather Service is planning a town hall meeting! The first one will be in Sikeston, Missouri.
Are you interested in becoming a severe weather spotter? We need more spotters.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No measurable rain is forecast over the coming days. Dry weather to continue.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be near ZERO for Thursday and Friday.
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Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Calm weather. Mild weather. No rain in the short term forecast.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
