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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
** SEE DETAILS FURTHER DOWN IN THE BLOG FOR EACH ZONE IN THE FOUR STATE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL VARY. **
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Monday to Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. A chance Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Not at this time.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? No.
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September 21, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: A mix of sun, some clouds, and some haze from the fires out west. Sunshine will vary today.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 78° SE MO 74° to 78° South IL 74° to 78° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 75° to 78° West KY 75° to 78° NW TN 75° to 78°
Wind direction and speed: East and southeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 80°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:43 AM
Sunset: 6:53 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear early. Increasing clouds southwest to northeast overnight.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° MO 50° to 54° South IL 50° to 54° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° West KY 50° to 54° NW TN 52° to 55°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:34 AM
Moonset: 9:57 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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September 22, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Increasing clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 72° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° West KY 72° to 74° NW TN 72° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: South and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:43 AM
Sunset: 6:51 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers moving in from Arkansas.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~30% TN ~30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56° MO 52° to 55° South IL 52° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 53° to 56° NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: East southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:45 PM
Moonset: 10:43 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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September 23, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% bootheel and 40% far north IL ~ 50% extreme south Illinois and 30% far north KY ~ 50% TN ~ 60%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: East at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars.
UV Index: 5. High.
Sunrise: 6:44 AM
Sunset: 6:50 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% Bootheel and 40% far north IL ~ 50% extreme south and 30% far north KY ~ 60% TN ~ 70%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56° MO 52° to 55° South IL 52° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 53° to 56° NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars.
Moonrise: 1:51 PM
Moonset: 11:33 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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September 24, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° SE MO 70° to 75° South IL 70° to 75° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 75° West KY 70° to 75° NW TN 72° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars.
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:45 AM
Sunset: 6:48 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° MO 53° to 56° South IL 53° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 54° to 56° NW TN 54° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:52 PM
Moonset: 12:01 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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September 25, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 82° SE MO 78° to 80° South IL 76° to 80° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80° West KY 76° to 80° NW TN 78° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:46 AM
Sunset: 6:47 PM
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Friday night Forecast: A few clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° MO 56° to 60° South IL 56° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 58° West KY 54° to 58° NW TN 56° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 62°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:44 PM
Moonset: 12:29 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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September 26, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Increasing clouds from the northwest. A chance of scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° SE MO 80° to 82° South IL 78° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82° West KY 78° to 82° NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:47 AM
Sunset: 6:45 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° MO 60° to 64° South IL 60° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° West KY 62° to 64° NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars.
Moonrise: 4:28 PM
Moonset: 1:28 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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September 27, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 84° SE MO 76° to 80° South IL 76° to 80° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80° West KY 78° to 82° NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: West and northwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Check radars.
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:48 AM
Sunset: 6:44 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Decreasing clouds. Turning cooler..
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° MO 48° to 52° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 52° West KY 50° to 54° NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:06 PM
Moonset: 2:30 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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What is the UV index?
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- Rain chances this week and coming weekend.
- Mild temperatures.
Click to enlarge the graphics.
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Remember, this is an average across our local area. The county by county will vary. See Beau’s detailed forecast above for more details.
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Click graphics to enlarge them.
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through September 26th: At this time severe weather is not anticipated. I will keep an eye on model guidance trends concerning this upcoming weekend. A cold front will push in from the north. There may be some thunderstorms with the front.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated September 21, 2020.
Monitor updates concerning rain Tuesday night into Thursday and a cold front this coming weekend with another chance of showers and thunderstorms
Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store. Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Rain chances increasing from the Gulf of Mexico tropical system.
- Mild weather conditions.
- Weekend cold front with showers/thunderstorms.
There have been some adjustments to the going forecast. The main reason is the tropical system moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico.
This was one of the features that I said I would be monitoring in the event it sent moisture northward. It is doing just that. Thus, some forecast adjustments have been made.
This moisture is going to combine with an upper level low. This will bring a chance of showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms to the region beginning late Tuesday night and continuing into Wednesday night/Thursday.
Rain chances will be highest across our southern counties. Lesser and lesser as you drive north. See the daily details near the top of the blog.
Models are not in agreement on rain totals. I am certain that rain totals will be higher across the Missouri Bootheel and along the Kentucky/Tennessee State line vs areas further north.
Models range from 0.25″ to over 3.00″. The models are having a hard time figuring out just how much moisture moves northward.
I am discounting the LARGE totals being shown on the NAM model guidance.
There will also be a sharp cut-off in rain totals from north to south.
Also, a cold front will push into the region this coming weekend. It will be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms.
For now, it appears the front will push through the region Saturday night and Sunday. Thus, I have rain chances both of those days.
The NAM goes all in on the rain totals. This seems way overdone. I have thrown out this solution.
The GFS model shows a more reasonable solution.
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Let’s look at the EC model ensembles and see the probability of 0.10″ of rain and 0.50″ of rain.
What is the probability of 0.10″ of rain between now and Friday.
And what is the probability of 0.50″ of rain between now and Friday.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 84 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers September 21st through September 27th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
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This outlook covers September 28th through October 4th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.30″ to 1.60″
This outlook covers October 2nd through October 15th
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Precipitation outlook
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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Click to enlarge all of the images below
These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.
NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.
Click the image below to enlarge it.
Updated after 9 AM
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Fall Outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
September Temperature Outlook (prelim)
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September Precipitation Outlook (prelim)
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The October Outlook has been posted.
Temperatures
AN means above average temperatures.
Precipitation
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November Temperature Outlook
M/AN means much above normal (above average)
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November Precipitation Outlook
BN means below normal (below average)
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December through February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
December through February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
December Temperature and Precipitation Preliminary outlook.
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
January Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
January Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
February Temperature Outlook (preliminary)
February Precipitation Outlook (preliminary)
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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