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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Saturday night – Clearing and cooler. Autumn like air. Fresh air.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 50’s
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph. Becoming near calm late tonight.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Don’t forget to Tweet me your sunrise/sunset photos, storm photos, or other weather related photographs. I will try to retweet them or use them in the blog.
https://twitter.com/BeauDodson
Sunday – Partly cloudy and cooler than recent days. Autumn like. More typical of September.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 70’s
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Sunday night – Partly cloudy and cool. Dry.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.
Winds: West winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Monday – Partly sunny. Mild.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 70’s
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Monday night – Mostly clear and perhaps a bit on the cool side.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday – Partly sunny. A little warmer. Dry.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s to around 80 degrees.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Tuesday night – Mostly clear and cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday – Partly sunny. A little warmer. Dry.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower 80’s.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation?
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Dry and cool weather.
2. Our warmer than normal and drier than normal September is verifying
3. Dry dry dry.
Well, our cold front brought a few showers to some of our counties. Not much rain recorded via the NWS weather radar. I was thinking the heaviest would fall over southeast Missouri and that did happen.
The band of rain extended into parts of western Kentucky and far southern Illinois, as well.
Here is the rainfall estimates via radar. Not much. The scale is on the left. The yellow colors represent around 1″ of rain. The blue colors are 0.10″ to a few spots of 0.50″ (green areas). There was a small band of 0.25″-0.50″ across parts of Cape Girardeau County into southern Union County, Illinois and then another very small band near Cairo, Illinois. Officially Cairo picked up around 0.50″ of rain. Which, was a lot more than most people.
Click image for a larger view.
Calm and cool weather is expected over the next few days. Temperatures will start to rise again by Tuesday and Wednesday. We will be back above normal later this week.
Here are the official stats from the Paducah, Kentucky NWS on temperatures. Everything in orange represents above normal temperatures. More than half of the month has delivered above normal temperatures. Which, was my forecast. Starting to wonder if October might be warmer than normal, as well. And, drier than normal. Hope not. Fire season could be rough.
I don’t need to tell you the rain stats. Dry dry dry. For some, at least. Some places have recorded almost no measurable rainfall in September. We still need a lot more rain.
Here is the September temperature anomaly map (so far this month). Much of the Missouri and Ohio Valleys have been above normal in the temperature department.
Image is from weatherbell.com
I pulled up the analog maps for the next couple of weeks. Everything in brown represents below normal precipitation probabilities. In other words…precipitation should average below normal. Not good news. Most charts indicate very little rain into the first part of October. We will see if that verifies.
This first map is through September 25th.
This second map is through October 1st.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No measurable rain is forecast over the coming days. Dry weather to continue.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be near ZERO for Sunday and Monday.
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Calm weather. Cool weather. No rain in the short term forecast.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the former Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served them proudly for ten years before expanding my job role to additional counties in western Kentucky.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
