September 20, 2017
Daily Highlights
1. 90 degree temperatures possible over the next few days
2. Patchy fog each night
3. Only isolated thunderstorm chances
4. Catastrophic Hurricane Maria is pounding Puerto Rico
Well, if you like warm weather, then you will like my forecast.
So far this month, the majority of days have been cooler than normal. Hard to believe! Here is the daily high and low temperatures for Paducah, Kentucky. The blue represents a below normal temperature day. The yellow represents an above normal temperature day.
Click image to enlarge
DY = Day
MAX = High temperature
MIN = Low temperature
AVG = Average
DEP = departure
We are, however, going to be adding several more above normal temperature days to the official record books.
We will have a chance of fog each night and morning, but it will mix out soon after sunrise.
It is going to fell like summer into at least next Tuesday.
Each day will produce quite a bit of sunshine. Highs will be in the 86 to 92 degree range. Light winds. Overnight lows will range from 66 to 72 degrees.
Rain chances?
Many of us desperately need rain. Fire season is approaching. I do not have good news on the rain front. Only isolated thunderstorms are in the forecast through Tuesday. Most of the area will remain dry.
I am tracking the potential for cooler air towards the end of next week and first few days of October. This is a long way off and confidence is low (too far out for confidence).
Hurricane Maria is pounding Puerto Rico. This is going to likely be the worst disaster that island has ever experienced. There has only been one other hurricane, of this magnitude, to strike the island. That event was in the 1928.
.
A Weather Talk subscription ($3 a month) is required to view the videos.
Videos are posted on the www.weathertalk.com website. Once there, click the Beau Video-Cast tab. Long Range Video Update
If you believe you missed a video then you may check the LIVE FEED link on the Weather Talk website. You will find an archive of videos on that page.
You can also receive the videos via your Weather Talk app/text messages. Have text option FOUR activated. The Weather Extra text option. Sign up for the app/text messages, videos, and more at www.beaudodsonweather.com
.
.
This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and extreme northwest Tennessee.
.
September 19, 2017
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: Southeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
.
September 20, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Warm and humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90 IL ~ 85 to 90 KY ~ 85 to 90 TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A small chance of wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
.
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds. Warm. Patchy fog.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 72 IL ~ 68 to 72 KY ~ 68 to 72 TN ~ 68 to 72
Winds: South winds at 0 to 5 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Isolated wet roadways. Isolated lightning. Low visibility in areas with fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
September 21, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm and humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 90 IL ~ 85 to 90 KY ~ 85 to 90 TN ~ 85 to 90
Winds: South and southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A chance of isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
.
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds. Warm. Patchy fog late.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 72 IL ~ 68 to 72 KY ~ 68 to 72 TN ~ 68 to 72
Winds: South and southeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Lightning. Low visibility in areas with fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
.
September 22, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Very warm for late September.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 90 IL ~ 86 to 90 KY ~ 86 to 90 TN ~ 86 to 90
Winds: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Isolated lightning and wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Evening clouds giving way to clear sky conditions. Patchy fog. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72 IL ~ 66 to 72 KY ~ 66 to 72 TN ~ 66 to 72
Winds: Southeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Slight chance for evening wet roadways and lightning. Lower visibility if fog forms
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
September 23, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Very warm for late September.
Temperatures: MO ~ 86 to 90 IL ~ 86 to 90 KY ~ 86 to 90 TN ~ 86 to 90
Winds: South and southeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Evening clouds giving way to clear sky conditions. Patchy fog. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72 IL ~ 66 to 72 KY ~ 68 to 72 TN ~ 68 to 72
Winds: South and southeast at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Slight chance for evening wet roadways and lightning. Lower visibility if fog forms
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
September 24, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Very warm for late September.
Temperatures: MO ~ 85 to 88 IL ~ 85 to 88 KY ~ 85 to 88 TN ~ 85 to 88
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Evening clouds giving way to clear sky conditions. Patchy fog. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 63 to 66 IL ~ 63 to 66 KY ~ 63 to 66 TN ~ 63 to 66
Winds: South at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Slight chance for evening wet roadways and lightning. Lower visibility if fog forms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Tuesday night through Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. If storms form, then they could produce locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and dime to nickel size hail. A small risk for a severe thunderstorm.
.
Overview
Highlights of the forecast.
- Warm and a bit humid
- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
- Hurricane Maria
Short range comments
There was an earthquake on Tuesday morning.
We are experiencing a rather tranquil weather pattern. Warm days, mild nights, and scattered thunderstorms. Sounds like summer.
No significant changes to the going forecast. We will remain above normal in the temperature and dew point department. That will mean daily high temperatures in the middle to upper 80’s and overnight lows in the middle to upper 60’s. Rain chances will be capped around 20% to 30% across the region through Thursday.
Let’s look at a couple of anomaly maps. How many degrees above normal will we be. I chose two days.
This first map is for Thursday afternoon. Well above normal temperatures.
and Sunday
Thunderstorms, over the past few days, have been prolific rain producers. This is because of high PWAT values. PWAT is a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere. These high PWAT values have assisted thunderstorms in producing one to two inches of rain per hour. Many areas have remained dry. A few areas have picked up quite a bit of rain.
What are PWAT values?
Here are some radar estimated rain totals from Monday
Portions of the region are experiencing abnormally dry conditions. Tennessee is not included on this map. They are not experiencing drought.
Click image for a larger view
Temperature Forecast
Tuesday night low temperatures
Wednesday high temperatures
Wednesday night low temperatures
Thursday high temperatures
Thursday night low temperatures
Friday high temperatures
Friday night low temperatures
Saturday high temperatures
Saturday night low temperatures
Sunday high temperatures
Dew point scale
Dew points are what control how you feel outside.
Click images to enlarge
Wednesday dew points
Thursday dew points
Friday dew points
Saturday dew points
Sunday dew points
Long range comments
Maria is a powerful hurricane. It appears that Puerto Rico may be hit head on. If Maria hits Puerto Rico as a category five hurricane, then the destruction will be immense.
Above normal temperatures will continue into the weekend. Latest guidance indicates that dew points might be slightly lower on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. I suspect it will still feel humid, at times.
There will be a daily chance for isolated storms. This will mostly be during the heat of the day. There are not any strong signals for widespread shower and thunderstorm activity.
I am watching a stronger cold front for the middle of next week. This could usher in cooler air by the middle or end of next week. Long way off, but I have been monitoring this for awhile.
October will be here soon. Cooler weather can’t be far behind.
You can see where the cold front is on the long range GFS model.
Notice how dew points fall sharply behind the front.
September 28, 2017, dew points
Friday, September 29, 2017, dew points. Drier air would follow frontal passage.
Are you subscribing to Weather Talk app/text messages and videos? This is what helps support all of the data you see each day.
We now offer premium videos for the short and long range forecasts! These videos are produced by a team of long range forecast experts. They are brought to you as bonus information. Activate text option four in order to receive these on your app or via text.
Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com
We offer an Apple and Android app (scroll to the bottom of this page for more information).
Were you aware that I hired a team of meteorologists for long range videos?
To learn more, click this link
http://cms.weathertalk.com/meet-the-team/
.
We offer regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. This will usually fix any problems.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link
National interactive radar: Click this link.
The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple and Android users. The app provides a faster way for you to receive my text messages. ATT and Verizon are not always reliable when it comes to speed.
Some of you have asked if you can receive the texts on your phone and the app. The answer to that is, yes. The Android app will automatically allow that to happen. On the Apple app, however, you will need to open your app and click the settings button. Make sure the green tab is OFF. Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app. If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The app is for text subscribers.
The direct download, for the Apple app, can be viewed here
https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/id1190136514
Here is the download link for the Android version Click Here
If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com
——————————————————–
Your support helps with the following:
and
.
Whom do you trust for your weather information?
I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s. I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005, I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history. This was in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. You need a trusted source for information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here.
I typically send AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
