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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Friday night – Increasing clouds from the northwest. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm moving in from the northwest for western Kentucky. A 40% chance after 3 am for southeast MO and southern IL. Not including the Bootheel where chances will be less.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s
Winds: South and variable winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% for western Kentucky. 40% for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
What impact is expected? Lightning.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Don’t forget to Tweet me your sunrise/sunset photos, storm photos, or other weather related photographs. I will try to retweet them or use them in the blog.
https://twitter.com/BeauDodson
Saturday – Cloudy at least through the morning hours. A chance for some scattered showers and thunderstorms early in the day.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 70’s
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Winds turning to the northwest and north late in the day at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but there could be some showers
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50% during the morning hours.
What impact is expected? Lightning with a few storms.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Saturday night – Cooler than recent nights. Some clouds, especially early. A 10%-20% chance for an evening shower or thunderstorm. Otherwise clearing.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 50’s
Winds: North winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? No real impacts. Lightning if a storm forms early in the evening.
Sunday – Partly cloudy and cooler than recent days.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 70’s
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Sunday night – Partly cloudy and cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 50’s.
Winds: West winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
What impact is expected? None
Monday – Partly sunny. Mild.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 70’s
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation?
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Monday night – Mostly clear and perhaps a bit on the cool side.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday – Partly sunny. A little warmer.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s to around 80 degrees.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation?
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Here comes a weak cold front. Mostly dry, but cooler.
2. Cooler weather Sunday into next week (early part of the week then we warm up again)
3. We need rain. Did I mention that? 🙂
4. How is winter shaping up?
Boy, do we need rain. Some places have not measured rain since August. That is very dry for our region. I don’t have good news on the rain front. At least for those who want and need rain.
A cold front will push into the region Friday night and Saturday. This front will produce some showers and thunderstorms over our far northern counties. But, as the front drifts southward on Saturday it still appears that it will be mostly dry. Some models spit out 0.10″ of rain. A few models spit out 0.20″ of rain. Many models paint no rain at all.
I have a least a few showers and rumbles of thunder in the forecast for Friday night and Saturday. But, to be honest…most will miss out on this rain event or at least won’t pick up much rain.
The only good news is that cooler temperatures will filter back into the region starting on Saturday and then lasting into early next week. Expect some 40’s again by Monday morning. Many areas will dip into the 50’s on Saturday night and Sunday night. You can open your windows again! That is the good news.
At one point it appeared the front might hang up over our southern counties. But, even that appears doubtful.
No real change into the middle of next week. Dry weather will continue.
I am not really ready to bank on a winter forecast, just yet. But, as you may have read, I am leaning for a colder than normal winter. I am concerned about a lot of the data leaning towards a drier than normal winter. Since September has been so dry this could be a concern. I don’t like to enter spring with dry conditions. It is something I will continue to monitor. There are a lot of weather players on the field this winter. Some, quite unusual.
There is a lot of warm water in both the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. These are factors for the winter forecast.
I am expecting a strong southern jet stream this year. That could mean better snow chances for Tennessee than Kentucky. But, that is speculation at this point.
I am most interested in the position of a large area of high pressure that could move over western Canada. If so then we end up very cold this winter. Much like last winter. Lot of cold air.
Snow and ice storms typically come down to location, location, location. And, that is something no forecaster can tell you months in advance. All we can do is tell you what the pattern favors. But, details…forget about it.
I can say that I can quite intrigued by all of that data. I have personally never seen the ocean waters like this. Not the massive coverage of the warm anomalies. That means there are not a lot of analog years to pull from.
Interested in becoming a SKYWARN spotter? Well, here is your chance!
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
It does not look very good for rainfall over the coming days. We do have at least some chances along the cold front…mainly on Saturday and then perhaps again on Sunday night and Monday over our southern counties.
The rain chances over the weekend don’t look great. Expect rainfall totals to be less than 0.25″ in most locations. As a matter of fact, most locations may not pick up any significant rainfall.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be near ZERO/ONE for Friday night into Saturday. I can’t rule out some lightning. Most areas will remain dry.
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Saturday: Some storms possible, but severe weather is not anticipated
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
No major concerns on the weather front.
The a few showers possible on Saturday. Looks mostly dry.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the former Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served them proudly for ten years before expanding my job role to additional counties in western Kentucky.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
