We have some great sponsors for the Weather Talk Blog. Please let our sponsors know that you appreciate their support for the Weather Talk Blog.
Milner and Orr Funeral Home and Cremation Services located in Paducah, Kentucky and three other western Kentucky towns – at Milner and Orr they believe in families helping families. You can find Milner and Orr on Facebook, as well.
.
Wortham Dental Care located in Paducah, Kentucky. The gentle dentist. Mercury free dentistry. They also do safe Mercury removal. You can find Wortham Dental Care on Facebook, as well
.
Trover’s Equipment and Lawn Care – Family owned and operated! They are a dealer for Snapper, Simplicity, Snapper Pro, Bad Boy Mowers, and Intimidator Utility Vehicles. They are a Stihl and Dolmar power products dealer. They also are a dealer for Briggs & Stratton, Kohler gas & diesel engines, and Kawasaki engines. They service and repair just about any brand. You can find them on Facebook, as well
.
Visit their web-site here. Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.
.
Endrizzi’s Storm Shelters – For more information click here. Endrizzi Contracting and Landscaping can be found on Facebook, as well – click here
.
Are you looking for a full service insurance agency that writes homes, businesses, and vehicles in Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Call Gary’s office at 270.442.8234 for rates and plans to protect what matters to you!
Gary Eckelkamp’s web-site click the above banner or click here
.
This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Don’t forget to Tweet me your sunrise/sunset photos, storm photos, or other weather related photographs. I will try to retweet them or use them in the blog.
https://twitter.com/BeauDodson
Friday – Some increase in clouds. Warmer.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 80’s.
Winds: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None
Friday night – Increasing clouds. A 20% chance for a shower or thunderstorm moving in from the northwest.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s
Winds: South and variable winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? Lightning.
Don’t forget to Tweet me your sunrise/sunset photos, storm photos, or other weather related photographs. I will try to retweet them or use them in the blog.
https://twitter.com/BeauDodson
Saturday – Cloudy. A 30% chance for some showers or thunderstorms. most areas will remain dry, unfortunately. We need rain.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s to lower 80’s.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph. Winds turning to the northwest and north late in the day at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but there could be some showers
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
What impact is expected? Lightning with a few storms.
Saturday night – Cooler than recent nights. Some clouds. A 10%-20% chance for an evening shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 50’s
Winds: North winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? No real impacts. Lightning if a storm forms early in the evening.
Sunday – Partly cloudy and cooler than recent days.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 70’s
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Sunday night – Partly cloudy and cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 50’s.
Winds: West winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
What impact is expected? None
Monday – Partly sunny.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 70’s
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation?
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Monday night – Mostly clear and perhaps a bit on the cool side.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday – Partly sunny. A little warmer.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s to around 80 degrees.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation?
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Reed Electric, Heating & Air in Metropolis, IL offers full electrical, heating, and air conditioning services, as well as automatic transfer generators. Our licensed and insured service technicians serve Southern Illinois and Western KY with 24 hour service. Free estimates available for all new installations!
Click their ad below to visit their web-site or click here reedelec.com
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Friday will be quite warm. Some spots could hit 90 for the last time this year.
2. Cold front arrives on Saturday and Sunday.
3. Some showers along the front.
4. Will the front hang up in the region on Sunday and Monday?
Above normal temperatures have returned. That didn’t take long. We did have some nice below normal temperatures, but those have disappeared over the last few days.
Friday could deliver the last 90 degree reading of the summer. That has been my forecast for awhile. We will see if it holds. Expect many locations to reach into the upper 80’s with a few spots reaching 90 degrees. Either way, quite warm and well above normal temperatures.
A dying area of showers and thunderstorms could push into our far far northern counties late Thursday night and early Friday morning. I can’t completely rule out a few showers or storms from Farmington, Missouri towards Mt Vernon, Illinois and then northeast of there. The chances actually look fairly small. But, I will mention it.
Otherwise, dry weather across our region into Friday night.
A cold front will approach our region on Saturday and Sunday. This front is fairly weak. It will do a couple of things for our weather. One is that it will deliver clouds and at least a few scattered showers. This means somewhat cooler temperatures on Saturday and especially Sunday. Below normal temperatures should return on Sunday and Monday.
Rainfall amounts do not look great with this system. As a matter of fact, some places (perhaps many places) will not receive measurable rainfall. I know some of you would like rain, but it just does not look like this front will deliver much.
The front could hang up in the region on Sunday night and Monday. That could mean a few more showers over our southern counties during that time period. And, even this is questionable. Better chances down in Arkansas and Tennessee.
Bottom line…our rain chances don’t look all the great over the weekend. Yes, there will be some rain showers on radar, but coverage may be quite limited.
I will continue to monitor.
Much of next week may end up dry, as well. Perhaps warmer again.
I am concerned about fire season. And, to be honest I am also starting to see a lot of signals that could lead to a drier than normal winter. I know there are a ton of winter forecasts out. Many of them indicate dry weather. But, this is basically based on El Nino. And, this is not a normal El Nino. We have so many other factors. It is something I am watching. It is a concern.
Here is the percent of soil moisture capacity. Dry.
Interested in becoming a SKYWARN spotter? Well, here is your chance!
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Don’t forget to support our sponsors!
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
It does not look very good for rainfall over the coming days. We do have at least some chances along the cold front…mainly on Saturday and then perhaps again on Sunday night and Monday over our southern counties.
The rain chances over the weekend don’t look great. Expect rainfall totals to be less than 0.25″ in most locations. As a matter of fact, most locations may not pick up any significant rainfall.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be near ZERO for Thursday night and Friday. Expect perhaps a ONE over our far far northern counties late Thursday night and Friday morning. That would be Farmington, Missouri to Mt Vernon. Looks mostly dry, but I can’t rule out some precipitation moving in from the north. The precipitation won’t get too far south. Should be weakening even as it enters our far northern counties.
.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Saturday: Some storms possible, but severe weather is not anticipated
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated
No major concerns on the weather front. Perhaps the northern counties could have a shower or thunderstorm late Thursday night and Friday morning (moving in from the north and weakening).
The a few showers possible on Saturday. Looks mostly dry.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the former Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served them proudly for ten years before expanding my job role to additional counties in western Kentucky.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
