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Key Seven-Day Weather Information
If your app is not receiving notifications, then please email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com
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🔥 LATE-SEASON HEAT WAVE CONTINUES
A strong area of high pressure will remain over the southeastern United States through the weekend. This will keep our stretch of near-record to record-breaking heat going through Sunday.
This is an incredibly long heat wave for September. We are breaking just about all records.
This will likely end up the warmest September ever recorded in our region. Some of the data goes back to the 1800s. Quite amazing.
Afternoon highs will generally range from the middle 90s to around 100 degrees. Overnight lows will only fall into the lower to middle 70s. Temperatures will remain about 14 to nearly 20 degrees above normal for this time of year. The Heat Advisory remains in effect through Sunday.
Friday: A weak boundary just north of our region could move far enough south to trigger a few afternoon showers or thunderstorms. The best chance will be across southwest Indiana and nearby portions of southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky, especially along and north of Interstate 64. Rain chances in those areas are around 20% to 40%.
See the rain probability graphics farther down in this blog update.
Weekend: Most of the region will remain hot and mainly dry. The strong high-pressure system responsible for the heat will slowly begin to weaken.
Both Saturday and Sunday will remain hot. Highs well into the 90s (near 100 in some counties).
Monday into Tuesday: A weak cold front will move into our region. This will bring a better chance of showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances increase to around 30% to 40% Monday afternoon and evening, followed by 20% to 30% chances Monday night through Tuesday evening.
Don’t get too excited about the rain. Some areas will once again likely receive no rainfall.
A few isolated showers or thunderstorms could linger into Wednesday. For now, chances are low.
The big weather story next week will be numerous days with highs in the 80s!
The main weather story through the weekend remains the unusually intense September heat, followed by increasing rain chances and some relief from the heat early next week.
Try and stay cool out there. Take care of yourself. Don’t forget the outdoor pets.
Double click on graphics to enlarge them
Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real-time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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🌪️ Seven-Day Outlook ⛈️
September 17th through September 23rd
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces 58 mph wind gusts and quarter-sized hail or larger.
⛈️ Current severe thunderstorm risk: NOT AT THIS TIME.
🌪️ Current tornado risk: NONE.
🌪️ Current confidence level in the tornado forecast: CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH.
Here is my weekly thunderstorm concern meter.
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Seven-Day Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? POSSIBLE. An isolated chance today into Saturday night. Mainly over northern portions of southeast Missouri and the northern half of southern Illinois. A chance of scattered lightning area-wide from Monday through Wednesday.
2. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
3. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
4. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? YES. Today through Monday.
5. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? YES. Today through Sunday.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 110 degrees? NO.
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
-> Rain chances will vary (county-by-county rain probabilities can be found below. Scroll down)
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Here are the waking-up temperatures and dew points.
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⚠️ This won’t be exact because the graphic is trying to predict where summer storms will form.
⚠️ Summer thunderstorms can produce a wide range of totals.
Eastern View
Double-click on the images to enlarge them.
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Western view (Missouri and southwest Illinois)
What is the % chance of rain?
These maps are broken down into 12-hour time periods.
* Remember, a 20% chance of rain during the summer months does not mean that it will not rain. It means there will be a few thunderstorms on the radar.
Double-click maps to enlarge them.
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Double-click maps to enlarge them.
Today. Thursday
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Friday night
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Saturday
Saturday night
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* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Take the general idea from this animation. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Hrrr model
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Here is a map to help you find your general location.
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NAM 3k Model
* Future-cast radars are rarely exactly right. Use this animation for the general idea. These models do their best to forecast where precipitation will develop and move. In the end, they are a model.
The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange and red indicate locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 82 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.10″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favor below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
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