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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Wednesday night – Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 60’s
Winds: South and variable winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Don’t forget to Tweet me your sunrise/sunset photos, storm photos, or other weather related photographs. I will try to retweet them or use them in the blog.
https://twitter.com/BeauDodson
Thursday – Mostly sunny and nice. A bit warmer. Perhaps some clouds in the afternoon.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 80’s.
Winds: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Thursday night – Some increase in clouds. A chance for a weakening band of showers and storms to nudge towards our far northern counties of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. More like Farmington to Mt Vernon. Not sure if they survive too far south. Dying and weakening line.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 60’s
Winds: South and variable winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% northern counties
What impact is expected? None for most of us. Lightning possible far far northern counties.
Friday – Some increase in clouds. Warmer.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 80’s.
Winds: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None
Friday night – Increasing clouds. A 20% chance for a shower or thunderstorm moving in from the northwest.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 60’s
Winds: South and variable winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? Lightning.
Saturday – Cloudy. A 30%-40% chance for some showers or thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower 80’s.
Winds: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but there could be some showers
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
What impact is expected? Lightning with a few storms.
Saturday night – Some clouds. A 10%-20% chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 60’s
Winds: West winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Sunday – Some clouds. Small chance for a shower. Cooler than recent days.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
Sunday night – Mostly cloudy. A chance for some showers. Especially southern half of the region (far southeast Missouri into western Kentucky/Tennessee).
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60’s
Winds: West winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
What impact is expected? None
Monday – Partly cloudy. Cooler.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 70’s
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? No real impacts.
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Another calm day for the weatherman to forecast
2. Temperatures are warming up a bit
3. Cold front is still on track for Friday night into Saturday evening.
4. Will the front hang up in the region on Sunday and Monday?
Well, this has been quite the week for the weatherman. One could almost fall asleep forecasting this weather. It has been calm and quiet. And, it appears the calm weather will continue into Thursday and Friday.
A dying area of showers and thunderstorms will knock on the door late Thursday night across our far northern counties. Farmington, MO to Mt Vernon, IL. Up that way. It will weaken as it moves southward from northeast Missouri and central Illinois.
Here is the NAM solution on that. You can see hints of gray and green over our northern counties early early Friday morning (between 1 am and 7 am)
Not much and it is dying/weakening as it moves southward.
Temperatures will start to warm up a bit more with each passing day. By Friday some locations could even reach into the upper 80’s. Will someone hit 90? I can’t rule it out, but most will stay in the 80’s. Our risk of 90 and above days are about over. Friday may be the last one. We shall see.
A cold front is still scheduled to approach the region over the weekend. The bad news, as you may already know, is that the data keeps trending drier. Some models show very little rain falling over far southern Illinois and western Kentucky.
Let’s hope we pick up a least a little rain. We sure do need it.
There is mixed opinions as to how far south the front will push on Sunday. If the front hangs up then there could be a few more showers on Sunday night and Monday. Two models are showing the front hanging up in the region. That wouldn’t be a bad thing. At least we would enhance our rain chances a little bit. I added rain chances for Sunday night and part of Monday. Especially the southern half of the region – say from Poplar Bluff to Cape Girardeau then eastward into western Kentucky/Tennessee.
I will keep an eye on it. As always.
For now it appears like 30%-40% rain chances will be with us on Friday night and Saturday. Perhaps some showers lingering into Saturday evening. Rainfall amounts are not forecast to be substantial. A 30%-40% chance means there will be some rain on radar, but perhaps the odds favor your location missing out.
Cloud cover on Saturday will keep temperatures in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s. If the front does push through the region then we can expect below normal temperatures on Sunday and Monday/Tuesday.
Let’s take a quick look at temperatures and temperature anomalies. You can find all these maps on my web-site www.weatherobservatory.com
Thursday’s High Temperatures
That will be above normal. Anomaly map.
Friday’s High Temperature Map
Friday’s anomalies are above normal, as well
Saturday’s High Temperature Map
Saturday’s anomalies start to slip into the below normal range. This is because of cloud cover with the incoming cold front.
Sunday’s High Temperature Map
And Sunday we slip into the below normal category for high temperatures
I pulled up the analogs for the 6-8 day precipitation forecast. It favors below normal precipitation.
I figured September would be dry, but boy is it ever.
At some point our pattern will shift to a more active one. Fall is approaching. That means the jet stream will be diving southward again. Soon enough. I suppose we should enjoy the calm.
How about a nice Twitter photograph? This is from Alaska. Beautiful.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No rain is forecast through Friday.
A cold front approaches the region on Friday night and Saturday. Some showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the front. The trend over the last few days has been for the front to come in drier and drier. Not good news if you want rain.
Still some time to watch this thing.
Expect at least a few shower and storms along the front Friday night into Saturday evening.
Some debate on whether the front hangs up in the area on Sunday and Monday as another weak wave of low pressure moves along the front. If so then perhaps we could extend the rain showers a bit longer.
Here is the official rainfall forecast. Broad-brushed. Slim pickins, I am afraid. Let’s hope that we pick up a little precipitation.
This image is from weatherbell.com Scale is on the right side. Click image for a larger view.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be near ZERO for Thursday.
.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Saturday: Some storms possible, but severe weather is not anticipated
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated
No major concerns on the weather front.
Calm into Friday. Can’t rule out patchy fog at times.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the former Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served them proudly for ten years before expanding my job role to additional counties in western Kentucky.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
