Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

Key Seven-Day Weather Information

If your app is not receiving notifications, please email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com

☀️ Weather Forecast Update

Friday, October 9, 2026

Key Messages

☀️ Very warm today! High temperatures will climb into the upper 80s. That is about 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year!

🌧️ Rain arrives Saturday. The remnants of Tropical System Isaias will move north through Alabama and Tennessee this weekend. Rain chances will increase Saturday morning, especially across western Tennessee, western Kentucky, and extreme southeast Missouri.

⛈️ Saturday afternoon and evening will be the wettest period. Rain chances will increase to 50% to 100% across the region. A few thunderstorms are possible. Some of the rain could be briefly heavy.

Peak rain chances will be across the Missouri Bootheel, extreme southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and Tennessee.

💨 Gusty winds are possible Saturday. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph are possible, especially across western Kentucky, southwest Indiana, far southeast Illinois, and extreme southeast Missouri.

🌧️ Rainfall totals: Most areas are forecast to receive between 0.25 and 1.25 inches of rain. The highest totals are expected across western Kentucky, southwest Indiana, and extreme southeast Missouri.

✅ Severe weather is not expected in our region. The track of the tropical system has shifted farther east, reducing concerns about significant impacts. The severe thunderstorm threat should remain well southeast of our area.

🌤️ Rain ends late Saturday night into Sunday morning. The rain will gradually end from west to east. Everyone should be dry by Sunday afternoon.

🌡️ Cooler Saturday, then warming up again. Highs Saturday will only reach the 70s because of the clouds and rain. By Monday, temperatures will climb back into the mid-to-upper 80s.

🌦️ Another chance of rain next week. Scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will return Wednesday and Thursday. Rain chances will be around 20% to 40%.

See the rain probability graphics farther down in this weather blog update.

What are the anticipated rainfall totals?  Of course, these totals will have a range.  My far northern and western counties could end up with low totals.  If it shifts even farther east, then some of the counties may receive less than 0.10″.

Heaviest totals are anticipated in Kentucky and Tennessee.

Double click images to enlarge them.

Here is the timing.  Keep in mind, sometimes these systems arrive a bit earlier than forecast.

The Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee will likely see rain move in between 6 AM and 11 AM.

A Closer Look at the Forecast

Today: Very warm and dry ☀️

Expect another unusually warm October day. Afternoon temperatures will climb into the upper 80s, about 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

Clouds will increase tonight, with overnight temperatures only falling into the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.

Saturday: Rainy, breezy, and cooler 🌧️💨

The remnants of Isaias will move north through Alabama and into Tennessee this weekend.

Here is what Isaias looks like this morning.  You can clearly see the eye.

The tropical system’s track has shifted farther east. However, that does not mean we will miss out on the rain.

Widespread rain is still expected across much of the region tomorrow and tomorrow night.

Rain coverage will be lower along and northwest of a line from Poplar Bluff to Perryville, Missouri, and then northeast toward Mt. Vernon, Illinois.

Areas south and east of that line will have a greater chance of widespread rain.

That part of the forecast has not changed.

The biggest change is that the eastward shift in the storm’s track will likely mean lower rainfall totals across our region.

So, the bottom line is that rain is still expected tomorrow, but we may not receive as much as earlier forecasts suggested.

Rain could begin Saturday morning across western Tennessee, western Kentucky, and extreme southeast Missouri, with morning rain chances around 40% to 70% in those areas.

Rain will become widespread Saturday afternoon and evening, with rain chances increasing to 50% to 100%.

A few thunderstorms are possible. The best chance of thunder Saturday afternoon will be across western Kentucky. By Saturday evening, thunder will also be possible across southwest Indiana and southeast Illinois.

Some of the rain could be briefly heavy, particularly across western Kentucky and southwest Indiana.

Winds may gust to 25 to 35 mph in portions of the region.

The good news is that severe thunderstorms are not expected in our area. The main severe weather threat will remain well to our southeast.

Saturday’s high temperatures will be noticeably cooler, generally in the 60s and 70s.

Sunday: Improving weather 🌤️

Rain will gradually end from west to east late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Clouds will begin clearing from west to east Sunday, and the entire region should be dry by Sunday afternoon.

Temperatures will begin warming again.

Monday through Tuesday: Unseasonably warm ☀️

The cooler weather will not last long.

By Monday, afternoon temperatures will return to the mid-to-upper 80s. That is about 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

Well above normal temperatures will continue through much of next week.

Wednesday and Thursday: Another chance of showers 🌦️

A warm front will move into our region Wednesday, followed by a cold front on Thursday.

This will bring another chance of scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.

Rain chances will range from 20% to 40%.  That could be adjusted, depending on how strong the cold front is.

Here is a look at the coming days.  High and low temperatures.  This is the average of 50 models (we call that the ensemble).

I chose Paducah, Kentucky, as the center point.  Temperatures in surrounding counties will be similar.

.

Bottom Line

Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening are the main periods to watch for rain. Some locations will experience briefly heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

The farther north and east you live, the later the rain is likely to arrive. Some locations, especially farther north and east, may get through at least part of Saturday before the steadier rain moves in.

The tropical system’s farther east track is good news for our region. Widespread significant impacts are not expected.

Sunday looks better, and unusually warm October temperatures return next week.

.