Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

Remember that weather evolves.  Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.

The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region.  These are the averages.

 

Thursday night –  Increasingly cloudy.  A chance or a shower or thunderstorm late at night.
Temperatures:  Lows in the lower 60’s.
Winds: South/southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   40%-50%
What impact is expected?  Maybe some lightning.

 

Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —

 

Friday – Quit a few clouds.  A few showers or thunderstorms as a cold front advances into the region.
Temperatures:  Highs in the upper 60’s and lower 70’s.
Winds:  Northwest after frontal passage.  Wind speeds of 5-10 mph.  Gusts to 15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updated forecasts as we may have some rain in the region.
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%
What impact is expected?  Maybe some lightning.

 

Friday night –  Decreasing clouds.  Partly cloudy.  Cooler.
Temperatures:  Lows in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   20% before 5 pm
What impact is expected?  No impacts.

 

Saturday – Mostly sunny.  Perhaps some puffy cumulus clouds.  Cooler temperatures.
Temperatures:  Highs in the upper 60’s.
Winds:  North/northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

 

Saturday night –  Mostly clear and cool.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the middle to  upper 40’s.
Winds: North winds at 5 mph.  Winds becoming variable.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   0%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

 

Sunday – Mostly sunny and pleasant.
Temperatures:  Highs in the middle 70’s.
Winds:  West and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

 

Sunday night –  Mostly clear and cool.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the lower to middle 50’s.
Winds: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph.  Gusty towards morning.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   0%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

 

Columbus Day – Monday – Mostly sunny and pleasant.  Windy, at times.
Temperatures:  Highs in the upper 70’s to around 80 degrees.
Winds:  Southwest winds at 10-20  mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

 

Monday night –  Mostly clear and cool.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures:  Lows in the lower to middle 50’s.
Winds: North winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   0%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

 

Tuesday – Mostly sunny and pleasant.  Above normal temperatures.
Temperatures:  Highs in the middle to upper 70’s.
Winds:  North winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

 

Tuesday night –  Mostly clear and cool.  Patchy fog.
Temperatures:  Lows in the lower 50’s.
Winds: North and northwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   0%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

 

Wednesday – Mostly sunny and pleasant.  Above normal temperatures.
Temperatures:  Highs in the middle to upper 70’s.
Winds:  East winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

 

Wednesday night –  Mostly clear.
Temperatures:  Lows in the lower 60’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   0%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

 

Thursday – Mostly sunny and pleasant.  Above normal temperatures.
Temperatures:  Highs in the middle to upper 70’s.
Winds:  South winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected?  No real impacts.

 

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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

Highlights

1.  Here comes the cold front
2.  Will it actually rain at your house?
3.  A very nice weekend on tap for the region
4.  Let’s take a look at our dry conditions
5.  When is the next best chance for rain?

You will notice that I have brought back some of the fall and winter graphics (below).  That includes the frost forecast.

I am growing concerned about this dry pattern.  It seems as if every cold front ends up being drier and drier than predicted.  I had some hope that this front would bring 0.10″-0.30″ of rain to much of the area (not all).  The latest guidance appears drier.  Let’s hope not.  We need the rain.

Look at this graphic.  These are my rainfall totals at the Weather Observatory over the last 30 days.  I highlighted the numbers in yellow.  That is the rainfall category.

Not much rain at my location in Massac County, Illinois.  We could use a lot more.  Especially with fire season approaching.

Weekend:

We should dry out by Friday evening for Friday night football games.  Cool temperatures, but nothing extreme.

The weekend should be nice.  Saturday into Sunday will feature cool mornings and mild afternoon conditions with a warming trend as we approach Monday.  Gusty winds on Monday could be a concern for those who venture out on the lake or river.  But, nothing too extreme.  Expect some gusts to 15-20 mph.

Looking ahead to next week.  Right now it appears mostly dry.  Another cold front may move through the region late next week or next weekend.  Right now the data isn’t painting much rain with that front, either.

Normally the winter cycle develops in October and November.  That means that we usually have a repeating weather cycle throughout the winter.  That cycle is established in October and November.  If this dry pattern continues then it could spell a drier than normal winter.  Still some time to go, but it isn’t looking all that great at this point.

I have some winter forecast thoughts further down in the blog (just scroll down).

Let’s take a look at some weather maps.  I have quite a few today.

First, let me show you the NAM model and how much rain it is predicting with the cold front.  Remember, this was one of the wetter models the other day and I said it looked suspect at that point (it was overdoing it).  Now, it has turned quite dry.  Scale is on the right.  Mostly 0.01″-0.10″ numbers.  Nothing impressive on this map.  And some places end up with no rain, at all.

Image is from weatherbell.com along with the next four images.

Here are two more guidance maps.  How much rain might fall?  Well if these maps are correct then it won’t be much.  Let’s hope they are wrong.

and finally

 

Let’s take a look at the future-cast radar.  What radar might look like tonight and Friday.

This first image is for Friday morning around 7 am.  Just a few showers on radar.

Moving ahead to 9 am to 10 am.  You can see a few more showers advancing through our region.

Moving ahead to the noon hour.  Some showers along the front.  Maybe a rumble of thunder.  Don’t be overly impressed by the bright colors.  It looks a little more impressive than it actually is.

Moving ahead to the mid afternoon hours.  You can see the rain is moving off to the east and southeast.

And, finally…here is the Friday evening future-cast radar.    The rain has moved off to the east and southeast.  Our region should be dry for Friday night football.

Let’s take a look at temperatures for the weekend.

Saturday morning low temperatures

Saturday afternoon high temperatures

Sunday morning low temperatures

Sunday afternoon high temperatures

Monday morning low temperatures

Monday afternoon high temperatures.  Notice the warming trend.

 

Is a drought developing?

Let’s take a look at how dry it has been lately.  Some of these maps really do tell the story.  I will try to explain each one of them.

This first map shows you how much rain has fallen over the last 60 days.  As you can see, some locations in our region are very dry.

This map shows you the departure from normal precipitation for the last 60 days.  Some areas are three to six inches below normal.

This map shows you the percent of normal precipitation for the last 60 days.  Parts of our region are at the 25%-50% level.  That means they have only received 25%-50% of their normal rainfall since August 9th.

The U.S. drought monitor map shows portions of our region in the D0-D4 range.  That means we are abnormally dry.

We are not quite in drought, yet.  But, we are moving in that direction.    Click map for a larger view.

 

I pulled up the GFS rainfall forecast for the next 16 days.  If the GFS is correct then we are going to remain quite dry.

 

And, finally 🙂  I saw this photograph pass through my Twitter account today.  I just had to share it.  I guess this little girl got away from her mom and ran up to her dad.

 

I continue to wrestle with just how much precipitation will develop along the cold front.  I lowered probabilities slightly.  Otherwise, I tweaked weekend temperatures and wind conditions.  Notice that Monday could bring some gusty winds.

No major concerns.  A rumble of thunder possible late Thursday night and Friday.

Perhaps an umbrella on Friday.

The wild card for the forecast will be rainfall totals late Thursday night and Friday.  Perhaps 0.10″-0.20 for some locations.  We could use the rain.

Currently no frost in the local forecast.  I am watching October 18th through the 28th for a cold snap.  Maybe frost?

 

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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

Rainfall totals on Thursday night and Friday will likely be in the 0.10″-0.30″ range.  And, once again some places will miss out on the rain.  Seems to be the same pattern since late August.  Not the best situation.

 

Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Thunderstorm threat level will be near ONE on Thursday night and Friday.  A rumble of thunder can’t be ruled out.  No severe weather concerns.

.
Wednesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  Maybe a thunderstorm along an advancing cold front.
Saturday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.

 

I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page

Let’s take a look at some winter data.

Let me show you some NOAA data.  They basically make their winter forecast 100% based on El Nino.  Personally I don’t like that approach, but every forecaster has their own method.  I believe that every El Nino is unique and is certainly not the only factor in a winter forecast.

With that said here are some typical El Nino graphics

Strong southern jet stream.  I agree with that.  Potentially dry in our region.  I am unsure about that.

Then there is this map

What would a typical El Nino winter look like?  Above normal temperatures over the northern United States.  Below normal precipitation in and near our region.  Again, this is what NOAA puts out.

My thoughts below:

Keep in mind that seasonal forecasts are more for fun than anything else.  No meteorologist can forecast details for the winter.  Will we have one big snowstorm?  Will we have a couple of big snow events?  It is the details that you care about.  The details can’t be forecast.

However, with that said…meteorologists can forecast some general ideas for an upcoming season.

As you may have read, I am leaning towards a colder than normal winter.  But, I am struggling with precipitation.  A powerful southern jet stream is forecast for the winter months.  We typically have two branches of the jet.  A northern branch and a southern brand.  That southern branch can produce some nasty weather conditions…including heavy snow, ice, and severe weather.

But, the real question will be the placement of the southern branch in relation to the northern branch.  When the two combine you can experience some of your bigger snowstorms.

The models are showing a drier than normal winter for our region.  Below normal precipitation.  Hopefully this won’t be the case.  I don’t like to enter spring in drought.  We have already experienced drier than normal conditions over Kentucky and Tennessee over the past month or so.  October has been dry, thus far.  And, that looks to continue.

Normally we start thinking about severe weather around the third and fourth week of October.  Also, we typically have one or two severe weather episodes in November.  Too soon to know if that will occur this year.

I am watching a storm system around the 14th-20th.

Back to the winter discussion…

A lot of models are showing below normal temperatures for our region.  Let me show you a few charts.

These particular forecast maps are from a Canadian model.  Images are from Tropical Tidbits.

This first map is for December.  The blue indicates lower than normal 500 mb heights.  The red indicates above normal heights.  Lot of blue across the southern United States.  That could be an indication of stormy weather.

This next map is for January

This next map is for February

This next map is for March

Let’s take a look at temperature anomaly maps

This first map is for December.  Blue colors represent below normal temperatures.  I am thinking this could be another back loaded winter.  Perhaps the harshest winter conditions will be in February and March.  Same as last year.

Here is the January temperature anomaly map from this particular model guidance.

This next map is for February.  That is a very cold look for February.

And, let’s take at look at March.

So, what does this mean?

Well, again…long range forecasting is more for fun than anything else.  But, the charts do point towards a cold winter for our region.  Perhaps the coldest part of the winter will be February into March.  Or, the worst winter conditions will be during that time.

Again, this is just one set of data.  There are a lot of other data sets to look over.

I like to move through the Month of October before banking on a winter forecast.

Let’s keep monitoring.

WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —

 

For the first time the NWS will be conducting town hall meetings.  If you would be interested in attending a town hall meeting then here is the schedule.  Click image for a larger view.

 

Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

Here are some current forecast hydrographs.  These will be updated each day with new information.

Current Temperatures Around The Local Area

We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

NOTE:  Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes).  Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.

Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page

Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. 

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

• Communicate in simple terms
• To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
• Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
• Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
• Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.