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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..
New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here.
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October 3, 2016
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Monday Night – Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible.
What impact is expected? Lower visibility where fog occurs.
Temperatures: Lows in the 55-60 degree range
Winds: Winds east and northeast at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:52 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:33 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 9:09 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:19 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
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October 4, 2016
Tuesday: Some patchy morning fog. Mostly sunny. Nice day. Warmer.
What impact is expected? None.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 78-84 degree range.
Winds: East and southeast winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:53 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:31 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High.
Moonrise will be at 10:03 a.m. and moonset will be at 8:54 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
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Tuesday Night – Mostly clear. Patchy fog.
What impact is expected? Lower visibility where fog occurs.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60-65 degree range
Winds: Winds east and southeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 5, 2016
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Warm. A 10% for a shower or thunderstorm over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
What impact is expected? None.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 82-86 degree range.
Winds: South and southeast winds at 8-16 mph and gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps isolated.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:54 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:30 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High.
Moonrise will be at 10:56 a.m. and moonset will be at 9:33 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
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Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. Mild. Patchy fog. A 10% for a shower or thunderstorm over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
What impact is expected? Perhaps lower visibility if fog develops.
Temperatures: Lows in the 62-66
Winds: South and southeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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October 6, 2016
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Very warm. Perhaps a few patchy clouds.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: South winds at 6-12 mph and gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments to the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:55 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:29 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10. High.
Moonrise will be at 11:49 a.m. and moonset will be at 10:15 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
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Thursday Night – Increasing clouds. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Medium confidence.
Temperatures: Lows in the 58-64 range
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
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October 7, 2016
Friday: Partly cloudy. A cold front may cross our region on Friday into Saturday morning. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways and lighting. Low confidence.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 76-82 degree range.
Winds: Southwest and west winds at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Sunrise will be at 6:56 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:27 p.m.
UV index will be 4-8 Moderate
Moonrise will be at 12:40 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:02 p.m. Waxing Crescent.
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Friday Night – A shower or thunderstorm possible. Cooler.
What impact is expected? Perhaps lightning and wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 54-58 range
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
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October 8, 2016
Saturday: Morning clouds. Showers ending from west to east. Becoming partly cloudy.
What impact is expected?
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Winds: North and northwest winds at 6-12 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation?
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Sunrise will be at 6:57 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:26 p.m.
UV index will be 3=6 Low to perhaps moderate (depending on cloud cover)
Moonrise will be at 1:30 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:52 p.m. First Quarter.
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Saturday Night – Mostly clear. Cool.
What impact is expected? Perhaps patchy fog.
Temperatures: Lows in the 45-50 range
Winds: North winds at 0-5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 9, 2016
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Cooler.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Winds: North and northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:58 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:24 p.m.
UV index will be 6-8. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 2:15 p.m. and moonset will be at – — Waxing Gibbous.
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Sunday Night – Mostly clear. Cool.
What impact is expected? Perhaps patchy fog.
Temperatures: Lows in the 46-52 range
Winds: Northeast winds at 0-5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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More information on the UV index. Click here
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Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
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The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- On vacation with my mom
- Very warm conditions Monday into Thursday
- Strong cold front arrives on Friday and Saturday
- Chilly weekend?
I am on vacation with my mom. Brief update.
Our region will experience a warming trend starting on Monday. We should experience highs from 85 to 90 by Wednesday and Thursday.
A weak system will pass through the area on Wednesday and Wednesday night. I can’t rule out isolated rain showers or a thunderstorm over our western counties. That would include parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Coverage, if anything, will be limited.
A strong cold front will push through the region on Friday and Saturday. You can expect the front to produce a few showers or thunderstorms. I will cap precipitation chances at 30% (for now). Moisture will be limited ahead of this cold front. I will monitor trends.
The threat for severe weather, during frontal passage, is low.
The front should exit the area Friday night or Saturday morning. Lower confidence on the exact timing of frontal passage.
Much cooler temperatures will arrive by Saturday and Sunday. We might experience temperatures dipping back into the 40’s by Saturday or Sunday morning.
Hurricane Matthew:
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How much rain is NOAA forecasting to fall over the coming days?
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I am not forecasting rain through Wednesday night. I am monitoring a cold front that could produce showers and thunderstorms by Thursday or Friday.
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Tuesday morning low temperatures
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Tuesday afternoon 4 pm temperatures.
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Wednesday morning low temperatures.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Monday night through Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. Small risk for a thunderstorm on Wednesday and Wednesday night over our western counties (parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois).
Thursday and Thursday night: Most likely dry.
Friday into Saturday: Cold frontal passage. A few thunderstorms possible along the front. No severe weather anticipated.
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No significant changes in this update.
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No major concerns.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
