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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.—
Sunday night – Partly to mostly cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 48-54 degrees.
Winds: Northeast/north winds at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
Monday – Becoming mostly cloudy. A few showers developing from the south towards the north as the day wears on. The northern half of the area may remain dry for much of the day.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 60s
Winds: East/northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% during the morning. Increasing to 40%-60% during the afternoon. Perhaps a bit higher over the Missouri Bootheel into northwest Tennessee.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars. A few showers possible, especially over our southern counties
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways where rain develops.
Monday night – Cloudy. Rain likely.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 54 to 60 degrees. Temperatures may rise late at night.
Winds: East winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 80%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous to widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Perhaps. Rain becoming likely on Monday night.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Tuesday – Widespread showers and perhaps some thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain possible. Gusty winds.
Temperatures: Highs in the 60s
Winds: East and southeast winds at 10-15 mph. Gusty winds possible on Tuesday.
What is the chance for precipitation? 90%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous to widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a plan B.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and maybe lightning. Gusty winds possible.
Tuesday night – Cloudy. Widespread rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Locally heavy rain possible.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 54 to 60 degrees
Winds: Southeast winds at 10-15 mph. Winds may shift to the southwest late at night. Gusty winds.
What is the chance for precipitation? 80%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous to widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds possible. Monitor updates.
Wednesday – Cloudy. Gusty winds, at times. A chance for early morning rain showers. Rain coming to an end on Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 60s
Winds: West/southwest winds at 10-20 mph. Gusty winds possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% early and then 20% in the afternoon
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered morning showers
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Gusty winds possible.
Wednesday night – Clearing and cooler.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 42 to 46 degrees
Winds: West and northwest winds at 5
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday – Partly cloudy and cooler.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s
Winds: Northwest winds at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Thursday night – Clear and colder. Frost possible.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 35 to 40 degrees
Winds: North at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Monitoring for frost
Friday – Mostly sunny and cool. Some increase in clouds possible during the afternoon.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s
Winds: East winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday night – Increasing clouds.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 38 to 44 degrees
Winds: East/northeast at 5 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low to Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Saturday – Cloudy.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 60’s
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? None (but monitoring)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None (but monitoring for rain)
Saturday night – Cloudy. A shower possible.
Temperatures: Lows ranging from 44 to 50 degrees
Winds: Southeast at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low to Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
Sunday – Cloudy. A chance for showers.
Temperatures: Highs in the 60’s
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Might have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Remnants of Patricia will move into our region starting on Monday
2. Locally heavy rain on Tuesday and Tuesday night (will someone pick up 3-5″ of rain?)
3. A few thunderstorms possible with strong winds
4. A discussion on the concern for severe weather
5. Colder by Thursday and Friday
6. I continue to track a storm system for Halloween weekend
First, I want to let you know that I am starting a new business!
I am teaming up with The FireHorn to bring you a texting service. Details below. I am going to start a slow roll out.
These will not be automated messages. These will be typed and sent straight from me to you. Your personal meteorologist.
If you would like to sign up and be part of the initial roll-out then let me know (email address is below. Just type add me into the subject line). I will then let everyone know when I am ready to start adding people.
COMING SOON! Beau Dodson WeatherTalk 2.0 A texting service. Watch for announcements over the coming week.
Click images for a larger view.
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I am going to start a slow roll-out.
Back to the weather
The big news story of the week will be the remnants of Hurricane Patricia. An area of low pressure (likely not to be named) is moving through the Gulf of Mexico. This system has quite a few tropical characteristics. Extremely heavy rain along the southeast Texas coastline into Louisiana (totals of 10-20″). Strong winds of 40-60 mph on some oil platforms offshore. And, a deepening area of low pressure that will weaken as it moves ashore. Semantics. Tropical or not this system is going to bring our region quite a bit of rain over the coming days.
Some rain showers will begin to develop as early as Monday morning and afternoon. The further north you travel in our local region the less likely you will experience much in the way of rain showers on Monday. The further south you travel the odds of encountering a rain shower increases. Either way, any showers that develop would be light in nature.
Rain will overspread the entire area on Monday night and Tuesday morning. The rain will also become heavier as we move into Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Right now, subject to some adjustments, I am forecasting 1-2 inches of rain over the entire area. The further east you travel in our region the larger the amounts are likely to be. That means Poplar Bluff, Missouri should experience less rain than Paducah, Kentucky.
After analyzing a lot of the latest data is appears that pockets of greater than two inches of rain will be possible over our eastern counties. Let’s draw a line from northwest Tennessee into the Land Between the Lakes and then north and east from there. Some of the guidance paints 2-3″ of rain. I don’t like to go to big with totals. But it is not unreasonable to think that some places would pick up more than two inches of rain from this event.
Historically tropical system produce more rain than anticipated. It would not surprise me if someone ends up with 3-5″ of rain. But, forecasting where those small bands will occur is almost impossible. Keep this in mind.
I should also mention that occasionally systems like this can produce training. Heavy precipitation moving over the same county repeatedly. If that were to happen then the risk for some much heavier rainfall totals would be possible.
Tropical systems are typically moisture laden. Lot of moisture to work with. I will show you some maps below.
Severe weather concerns?
Wind fields aloft will increase dramatically on Tuesday morning and afternoon. One ingredient for severe weather would be strong wind fields aloft. Another ingredient would be wind shear. We will have quite a bit of wind shear, as well. One missing ingredient will be instability. Cloud cover and widespread rain should mean instability will be kept to a minimum. This is good news.
All of that equals a low end risk for a few reports of high winds. Occasionally these types of systems can also produce short lived areas of rotation. That would mean a small risk for an isolated short lived tornado. The tornado risk does not appear to be great. But, it isn’t zero, either.
I will keep an eye on all of the above and update accordingly if changes are necessary. Currently the Storm Prediction Center has not outlined our region for severe storms. However, that could change. Let’s see what their new updates look like on Monday (main concern would be on Tuesday).
Colder air arrives behind this system for Thursday and Friday. It will feel like fall (can you believe it is almost November). If the winds die down on Thursday night then we could even have some frost by Friday morning. Lows dipping into the upper 30s.
The next big question becomes Halloween. What to do what to do. Will it rain or not?
A new storm system approaches our region by Saturday and Sunday. It will be moving in from the southwest and south. Some showers and thunderstorms will likely occur with this system, as well. What I am unable to resolve is the exact timing of precipitation. The GFS model guidance has been adamant that rain will move into our region by Saturday and Saturday night. Ensembles are not convinced and indicate different times for arrival.
Let’s continue to monitor Saturday’s forecast. I will go with increasing clouds and a high temperature around 60 degrees. Subject to changes!
Let’s look at the weather charts for all of the above. A bunch of them today.
Let’s look at the NAM model from weatherbell.com Click images for a larger view. The NAM is one model that does quite well in the short term (one to two days out).
The grey and green/blue colors represent showers and thunderstorms. This is for the lunch hour on Monday. Note the rain to our south. This is the beginning of the remnants of Patricia pushing northward. Can you see those lines in Louisiana and Mississippi? Those are isobars. Closed lines of equal barometric pressure. The area of low pressure is just south of our image on Monday noon. Moving north.
Moving into Monday afternoon and evening. This future-cast radar image is for Monday around 3 pm. Maybe some showers over the area. Light in nature.
Green colors represent a few showers.
This next image is for Tuesday morning around 3 am. You can see rain spreading into the region.
Moving ahead to Tuesday around noon (image below). Lot of rain in our region. Some heavy downpours possible.
This next image (below) is for Tuesday night around 9 pm to 11 pm. Rain and thunderstorms continue. Some locally heavy rain and even gusty winds. The colors represent rain.
Moving ahead to Tuesday morning around 6 am to 8 am. This is a future-cast radar image. Yellow and orange represent locally heavy rain.
Tuesday mid-morning indicates lots of rain.
Tuesday noon future-cast radar. Lot of rain. Bottom line – lot of rain on Tuesday.
Skipping ahead to Wednesday morning. Rain should start spreading to the east. Some debate on what time the rain ends on Wednesday morning. Some scattered showers might continue into Wednesday morning and afternoon, but less widespread in nature. Would not be surprised to hear of some damaging wind reports over parts of the Ohio Valley on Wednesday morning. Parts of Ohio, eastern Kentucky, Pennsylvania, and perhaps into New York. Very strong winds aloft with that area of red.
Let me show you the PWAT values. PWAT values are a measure of how much moisture is in the entire atmospheric column. From the surface upward.
This is one chart that meteorologists use to determine heavy rainfall potential. One of many maps.
Notice on Monday morning the brown colors over our region. DRY air! Watch what happens to the moisture to our south. Notice the curve? Tropical like system.
The yellow colors represent PWAT values of 1.5 to 2″. A lot of moisture streaming northward into our region.
If you are truly interested in PWAT values then check out this explanation of them – click here
By Tuesday and Tuesday evening there will be a lot of moisture over our region. PWAT values will be 2 standard deviations above normal. Very high PWAT values for this time of the year.
Just to compare. Let me show you the PWAT values as this system is moving ashore on Sunday. Check out those incredibly high numbers (colors). Amazing amount of moisture. Very heavy rains will fall over parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. Some of those numbers are reaching into the 2.7″+ category. Trust me, that is amazing.
Let me show you the anomalies for PWAT values.
This first map is for Sunday night/Monday morning. Can you find the remains of Patricia? Those closed isobars in the Gulf of Mexico. That is it. Tightly wound up. This map is showing you how much above normal the PWAT values are. That is a lot of moisture! The maximum number is around 3.2 standard deviations above normal. If you know anything about math then you will know that is a big number.
As it moves into our region the low opens up (weakens as it moves ashore). Well above normal PWAT values for our area. Anywhere from 2 to 2.5 standard deviations above normal. In layman terms that equals a lot of moisture for the system to work with. Any training of cells would cause very heavy rainfall totals.
Let me walk you through the expected rainfall totals map. This is how much is forecast to fall through Monday late afternoon. Notice how most of the rain is confined to our southern counties? Watch it spread northward in the following maps.
This next map shows you the expected rainfall totals through Monday night around 11 pm to 1 am. You can see it spreading northward.
This next rainfall forecast map shows you how much rain is expected through Tuesday morning. Notice how the heavier totals are over our southern counties and eastern counties? That will need to be monitored. How far west will the heavier totals be placed?
This final map shows you the total rainfall forecast from the GFS model guidance. Again, note the eastern counties vs western counties. Heavier totals over our eastern counties.
Let me show you a couple of other models.
This is the high resolution WRF model. Notice how it has the heaviest rainfall totals a few counties further west than the GFS
Those dark red colors over southern IL and western KY would be 2-3″ of rain. From this map to God’s ears. We need rain.
Okay on the rainfall totals. You get the general idea. Quite a bit of rain will fall Monday into Wednesday morning. Most of it falling on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
I want to show you a series of maps. These are the 850 mb level winds. That would be about 5000′ aloft. If thunderstorms occur then some of these winds could mix down.
Watch how much the winds increase as the tropical like system merges with another system to our north and west. Dramatic winds increases.
This first map is for Monday around 9 am to 11 am. The orange colors over Mississippi and Alabama represent 40-50 knot winds. Decent, but not overly impressive.
Moving ahead to Monday around 3 pm. The bright red colors over northern Mississippi and Alabama represent 50 to 55 knot winds. Starting to increase.
By Tuesday morning around 3 am you can see winds continue to increase. The maroon colors represent 60 knot winds or higher. These are strong winds at that level. If any of those winds mix down then a few damaging wind gusts could occur. And, an isolated tornado risk for parts of southern Tennessee into Mississippi and Alabama. Deserves to be monitored.
Now, watch what happens.
This next map is for Tuesday around 9 am. Red colors and maroon colors moving into Kentucky and much of Tennessee. Weaker winds over southern Illinois and southeast Missouri.
By Tuesday afternoon around 3 pm you can see strong winds over much of Kentucky (again, at the 850 mb level)
Some of those winds aloft are approaching 70 knots. Again, if any of those winds mix down then there could be issues. Perhaps further east of our local region? Let’s keep an eye on it.
The entire storm system continues to intensify on Tuesday night. This image is for Wednesday morning around 3 am. Very strong 850 mb winds over much of the Ohio Valley. Could be some high winds to our northeast from this event. Thankfully, the system will be exiting our region as it intensifies.
Don’t forget our local city view radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
First map is the radar animation. You can watch the showers moving through the area.
No major changes to the ongoing forecast. I continue to monitor the timing of rain on Monday. Increased chances a bit for our southern counties during the day on Monday. Otherwise, left everything else alone.
I am watching a new storm system for Saturday and Sunday. Just not sure how quick the moisture returns behind our deep trough over the eastern half of the United States. Hopefully the rain holds off. But, keep that in mind. A new system will be approaching.
Locally heavy rain on Monday night into Wednesday morning. Our creeks and streams can handle quite a bit of rain. Although, we don’t want it to come down all at once. Right now I am forecasting 1-2″ of rain for most of our counties. Certainly can’t rule out totals in excess of two inches. Monitor updates.
Small risk for severe weather on Tuesday and Tuesday night. 850 mb winds increase dramatically on Tuesday as an area of low pressure moves towards our region and another system approaches from the northwest. These two systems combined will help increase wind fields aloft. There is not much instability. But, if winds can mix down then a few reports of high winds would be possible.
If convection develops then I will also be watching for short lived areas of rotation. Occasionally systems like this can produce short lived tornadoes. Although that appears unlikely, it is something I will be monitoring.
Umbrella weather arrives over parts of the area on Monday. Mainly the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and then southward. Lesser chances north.
Rain gear for Monday night into Wednesday morning. Quite a bit of rain anticipated as the remnants of Patricia move northward.
Small risk for severe thunderstorms. The main concern would be for high winds in any thunderstorms that develop. Lesser concern for an isolated tornado risk. Monitor updates on Tuesday/Tuesday night.
The wild card in this forecast update will be whether or not some spots can pick up 2-3″ of rain from what is left over from Patricia. The best chances for the heavier totals would be from southern Indiana back into parts of western Kentucky and Tennessee. Perhaps along a line from near Land Between the Lakes and then north and east from there. Lesser totals are likely over our western counties in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
The second wild card will be whether or not a few storms could produce strong winds and even a short lived tornado. Occasionally systems like this can produce such events. The odds seems low, but I will be monitoring. Winds aloft will be quite strong.
Possibly some frost on Thursday night and Friday morning. Lows in the 30s are anticipated. If winds can die off and sky conditions clear then frost would be a possibility. Otherwise, not tracking any other frost potentials.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Rain showers will start to develop on Monday over our southern counties and spread northward on Monday night. Any rain that falls on Monday would be light.
Locally heavy rain is possible on Tuesday and Tuesday night as the remnants of Patricia move north and northeast out of Louisiana.
Rainfall totals of 1-2″ area wide appear possible. The last two months have mostly produced totals under model guidance. However, this is a system of tropical nature and should contain a lot more moisture. I am expecting widespread rain with this event.
I can’t rule out some totals over two inches. That would most likely be across parts of southern Indiana into the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. Perhaps along a line from Kentucky Lake towards the north and northeast. Western counties would have lesser totals compared to eastern.
If the system shifts a little bit left or right then the forecast totals could change a little bit. Keep that in mind.
Here is the latest WPC rainfall map for this next event. The yellow areas represent 0.90″-1.5″. The orange area represents 1.5″-1.9″. The red areas represent 2″ of rain or more. You can even see some 3″ totals on this map over western Kentucky and southern Indiana.
We need this rain.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be ZERO for Monday. A ONE/TWO for Tuesday and Tuesday night.
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Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday: A few storms could become quite strong on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Strong winds aloft could mix down and produce a few reports of high winds. A small tornado risk. The greater chances would be over southern Indiana into western Kentucky. Then will spread north and east from there.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated after 9 am. A few storms early on Wednesday morning could be strong.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday and Sunday: Monitor updates.
For Monday (below)
Then for Tuesday and Tuesday night (below)
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Let’s take a look at some winter data. I will keep adding to this over the coming weeks.
UPDATE: October 20, 2015: Starting to see a more active pattern the last part of October into the first part of November. A couple of storm systems to monitor. I am noting the southern systems coming through the southwest United States. The thinking is that this winter might end up a southern winter. Meaning, a lot of storm systems will track through the gulf states and then off the southeast coast. If there is blocking then the systems would push up the East Coast. Typically this would be a great track for our region when it comes to winter storms.
The question will be how far south do these systems track. Normally for heavy snow in our region we would look for a system pulling out of Texas and Oklahoma and then tracking into Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama. That would place our region on the cold side of the area of low pressure.
I do believe this is shaping up to be a fairly unique winter. The warm waters off both coasts are not typical for an El Nino event. Widespread above normal water temperatures in the Pacific and the Atlantic. I will be monitoring Gulf of Mexico water temperatures. Above normal waters in the Gulf of Mexico typically means increased severe thunderstorm activity along the Gulf Coast. It could also mean more moisture for our winter storms to work with.
Drought continues to be the lead story. Our dry pattern has been underway since September and October (for much of the region). The long range cycle typically sets up during October and early November. The longer our calm and dry weather persists the more I am concerned about drought during the winter months.
Precious discussions below.
One of my big concerns is how dry September and October have been over our local counties. This is a concern. I do believe in repeating patterns. Typically October and November set the stage for the winter. Let’s hope we start picking up more precipitation than we have been.
Let me show you some NOAA data. They basically make their winter forecast 100% based on El Nino. Personally I don’t like that approach, but every forecaster has their own method. I believe that every El Nino is unique and is certainly not the only factor in a winter forecast.
With that said here are some typical El Nino graphics
Strong southern jet stream. I agree with that. Potentially dry in our region. I am unsure about that.
Then there is this map
What would a typical El Nino winter look like? Above normal temperatures over the northern United States. Below normal precipitation in and near our region. Again, this is what NOAA puts out.
My thoughts below:
Keep in mind that seasonal forecasts are more for fun than anything else. No meteorologist can forecast details for the winter. Will we have one big snowstorm? Will we have a couple of big snow events? It is the details that you care about. The details can’t be forecast.
However, with that said…meteorologists can forecast some general ideas for an upcoming season.
As you may have read, I am leaning towards a colder than normal winter. But, I am struggling with precipitation. A powerful southern jet stream is forecast for the winter months. We typically have two branches of the jet. A northern branch and a southern brand. That southern branch can produce some nasty weather conditions…including heavy snow, ice, and severe weather.
But, the real question will be the placement of the southern branch in relation to the northern branch. When the two combine you can experience some of your bigger snowstorms.
The models are showing a drier than normal winter for our region. Below normal precipitation. Hopefully this won’t be the case. I don’t like to enter spring in drought. We have already experienced drier than normal conditions over Kentucky and Tennessee over the past month or so. October has been dry, thus far. And, that looks to continue.
Normally we start thinking about severe weather around the third and fourth week of October. Also, we typically have one or two severe weather episodes in November. Too soon to know if that will occur this year.
I am watching a storm system around the 14th-20th.
Back to the winter discussion…
A lot of models are showing below normal temperatures for our region. Let me show you a few charts.
These particular forecast maps are from a Canadian model. Images are from Tropical Tidbits.
This first map is for December. The blue indicates lower than normal 500 mb heights. The red indicates above normal heights. Lot of blue across the southern United States. That could be an indication of stormy weather.
This next map is for January
This next map is for February
This next map is for March
Let’s take a look at temperature anomaly maps
This first map is for December. Blue colors represent below normal temperatures. I am thinking this could be another back loaded winter. Perhaps the harshest winter conditions will be in February and March. Same as last year.
Here is the January temperature anomaly map from this particular model guidance.
This next map is for February. That is a very cold look for February.
And, let’s take at look at March.
So, what does this mean?
Again, long range forecasting is more for fun than anything else. But, the charts do point towards a cold winter for our region. Perhaps the coldest part of the winter will be February into March. Or, the worst winter conditions will be during that time.
Again, this is just one set of data. There are a lot of other data sets to look over.
I like to move through the Month of October before banking on a winter forecast.
Let’s keep monitoring.
NOAA HAS RELEASED THEIR WINTER FORECAST
NOAA has released their winter forecast. I have been forecasting below normal temperatures for our region. But, I have not banked on precipitation, just yet. The long range cycle is still in the developing stages. The long range cycle typically develops during October and November. It is a repeating pattern that will last through the winter. Until we know what that cycle looks like then making a long range forecast for December into March is difficult, at best.
I am concerned about our dry weather. October has been dry, thus far. Not the best way to start out the next cycle. However, we still have 4-6 more weeks to go. Will the weather become more active during that time period? Frequent cold fronts and frequent precipitation would be a strong clue as to what will happen in December-March.
Here is what NOAA said today.
This first map is their temperature outlook. They are forecasting above normal temperatures across the northern United States. In other words, the odds favor above normal temperatures. The blue area, to our south, represents below normal temperatures.
I would have brought the blue further north into our region. It is my forecast opinion that we will have a colder than normal winter. That is when December into early March is averaged out. That does not mean every month will be colder than normal. It simply means the odds favor it averaging out to below normal. We will see how it goes.
I base those ideas off the warm waters off the West Coast of the United States. The last few winters have provided us with a lot of cold air. If the high pressure in Canada shifts into western Canada then we will have plenty of cold air.
Our region is in white. What is NOAA saying about our region? They are saying there is a 50/50 chance for above or below normal temperatures.
Let’s look at NOAA’s precipitation forecast. They are forecasting the southern United States to have a wetter than normal winter. Drier than normal for much of the northern United States into the Great Lakes. As I have said before, I am not ready to bank on a precipitation outlook.
Our region is in white. What is NOAA forecasting for our region? They are saying a 50/50 chance for above or below normal precipitation.
Remember, forecasters can’t actually tell you what you really want to know. How much snow will fall at my location. Will we have an ice storm. How many winter storms will impact our region. If someone tells you that it is going to snow 8″ on January 15th then take it with a grain of salt. Trust me, no forecaster can accurately forecast specific weather events months in advance. Key word being specific.
We can have a drier than normal winter and a colder than normal winter and still be slammed by one or two big winter storms.
For the most part, our region experiences a couple of winter storms each year. Last year the winter was boring, until it wasn’t. The two big winter storms occurred on February 16th and March 5th. And, many will never forget those two events. November into January was fairly calm.
No matter what winter forecast you read, there isn’t a method of forecasting the big events. The events that matter. Not months in advance, at least. We do well to forecast them a few days in advance, let alone months in advance.
Forecasters do fairly well with general over/under forecasts. Warmer than normal/colder than normal. Wetter than normal/drier than normal. But, that really does not tell the story of winter. That does not tell you what you really are wondering. Thus, is the nature of long range forecasting. Maybe one day it will improv
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
