.
Click one of the links below to take you directly to each section.
If a link is broken then please let me know. Beaudodson@usawx.com
-
- Go to storm tracking tools. Radars, lightning, & satellite
- Go to today’s forecast
- Go to the city-view graphic-casts
- Go to the severe weather outlook
- Go to the weather forecast discussion
- Go to the model future-cast radars
- Go to videos
- Go to weeks one, two, three, and four temperature & precipitation graphics
- Go to the autumn outlook.
- Go to the winter outlook,
- Go to Weatherbrains
- View our community charity work. Your subscription dollars help support these causes.
- County maps. I made a page with county maps. Some of you requested this.
Do you have questions or suggestions? If so, please email me. Beaudodson@usawx.com
.
Quick Glance
.
.
Your seven-day outlook.
.
Not receiving app/text messages?
Make sure you have the correct app/text options turned on. Find those under the personal notification settings tab at www.weathertalk.com. Red is off. Green is on.
.
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
.
The app is under Beau Dodson Weather in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
.
Friday: Monitor Friday night. Perhaps a few storms. Rain likely at night. There will be heavy rain in the area. Monitor that in case there are a few flooded roads.
Saturday: Monitor Saturday. Perhaps a few storms. Rain. There will be heavy rain in the area. Avoid flooded roadways. I am keeping an eye on the threat of severe weather. There is a chance of a tornado if CAPE develops. CAPE is basically energy for thunderstorms to tap into. Strong wind shear tomorrow. Be alert.
Sunday: No
Monday: No, but a frost or freeze is possible Monday night.
Tuesday: Not at this time, but monitor updates.
Wednesday: Not at this time, but monitor updates.
Friday through Sunday.
- Is lightning in the forecast? Yes: I am monitoring Friday night.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor. Storms on Saturday could produce gusty winds. I am keeping an eye on the threat of severe weather. There is a chance of a tornado if CAPE develops. CAPE is basically energy for thunderstorms to tap into. Strong wind shear tomorrow. Be alert.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes: Locally heavy rain Friday night into Saturday. Some flooding is likely. Avoid flooded roadways. Field flooding is likely. Sharp stream rises.
- Is Frost in the forecast? No.
- Is a freeze in the forecast? No.
- Is ACCUMULATING snow or ice in the forecast? No.
.
Monday through Thursday.
- Is lightning in the forecast? Monitor. I am watching a system on Wednesday and Thursday. Track and strength will need to be determined.
- Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor: I am watching a system on Wednesday and Thursday.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes - Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Additional rain is likely Wednesday and Thursday. It could be heavy rain but confidence in that is low.
- Is Frost in the forecast? Yes. Light frost is possible on Monday night. A frost/freeze is likely on Wednesday or Thursday night. Wednesday night would depend on how fast the cold front arrives and exits.
- Is ACCUMULATING snow or ice in the forecast? Not at this time. Monitor updates. A low-end chance of a snow/rain mix at the end of the mid-week system. No accumulation.
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.
.
County Maps: Click Here
Have there been any significant changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?
I increased rain totals, once again.
I increased rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday night.
.
What changes might occur in the forecast?
A storm system is forecast to bring additional precipitation into the region by Tuesday and Wednesday. Models again are handling this poorly. I have rain in the forecast both Tuesday and Wednesday.
The rain and clouds will impact overnight lows. A freeze is likely by Thursday or Friday morning.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.
** The new app is finished. Make sure you have the new one. If not, go to WeatherTalk in the app store. Download the new app. Notice the icon is no longer orange. It is a grey/dark color **
.
October 25, 2019
** NOTE **
I am traveling to Europe this week and next week. I will keep the daily blog, videos, severe weather updates, app messages, and everything else updated. There may be some differences on what time everything is posted.
Friday’s Forecast: Increasing clouds. Perhaps a few afternoon showers. More likely Friday night.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° SE MO 55° to 60° South IL 55° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° West KY 58° to 64° NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered. Better chances tonight.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways. More likely Friday night.
What action is required: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor radars during the afternoon.
UV Index: 3 Low
Sunrise: 7:12 AM
.
Friday night Forecast: Cloudy with rain increasingly likely. Locally heavy rain is possible. Becoming windy. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 90% IL ~ 90% KY ~ 100% TN ~ 100%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° SE MO 50° to 55° South IL 50° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 55° West KY 54° to 58° NW TN 55° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast wind 10 to 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 53° to 56°
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Heavy rain. Flooded roadways.
What action is required: Avoid flooded roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset: 6:05 PM
Moonrise: 4:02 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 5:03 PM
.
October 26, 2019
Saturday’s Forecast: ** Heavy rain. Flooding possible ** Monitor the tornado threat. We will need to monitor to see where the dry slot tracks. The dry slow arrives after a chunk of heavy rain. The rain then ends. The dry slot would mean some of my forecast counties will see the rain shut down tomorrow late morning/afternoon. Rain. Some thunderstorms possible. Heavy rain likely. Some flooding of roadways will be possible. I am keeping an eye on the threat of severe weather. There is a chance of a tornado if CAPE develops. CAPE is basically energy for thunderstorms to tap into. Strong wind shear tomorrow. Be alert.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~100% IL ~ 100% KY ~ 100% TN ~ 100%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° SE MO 62° to 66° South IL 63° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° West KY 66° to 68° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind 14 to 28 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 68°
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Flooded roadways. Monitor the chance of severe weather.
What action is required: Wet roadways. Slow your vehicle on wet roadways. Avoid flooded roadways. Seek shelter if tornado warnings are issued.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Cancel your plans.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:13 AM
.
Saturday night Forecast: Cloudy. Rain likely early. Rain tapering west to east overnight.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° SE MO 42° to 45° South IL 44° to 48° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° West KY 46° to 48° NW TN 46° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: Becoming west at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early. Ending overnight.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Flooded roadways.
What action is required: Slow your vehicle on wet roadways. Avoid flooded roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset: 6:04 PM
Moonrise: 5:14 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 5:37 PM
.
October 27, 2019
Sunday’s Forecast: Clearing. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 70° SE MO 64° to 68° South IL 64° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 64° to 66° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: South 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? There could still be some flooded roadways.
What action is required: Avoid flooded roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:14 AM
.
Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 44° SE MO 40° to 44° South IL 40° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° West KY 40° to 44° NW TN 42° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: Light variable wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 44°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
What action is required: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:03 PM
Moonrise: 6:26 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 6:11 PM
.
Monday’s forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 66° to 72° South IL 66° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° West KY 68° to 72° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South 5 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 74°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
What action is required: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 3 Low
Sunrise: 7:12 AM
.
Monday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 45° SE MO 40° to 45° South IL 40° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 45° West KY 40° to 45° NW TN 40° to 45°
Wind direction and speed: Light wind.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
What action is required: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:05 PM
Moonrise: 4:02 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 5:03 PM
.
October 29, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast: Increasing clouds. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68° SE MO 62° to 66° South IL 63° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 68° West KY 66° to 68° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
What action is required: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 7:16 AM
.
Tuesday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A chance of a late night shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 43° to 46° SE MO 38° to 44° South IL 40° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° West KY 40° to 44° NW TN 43° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: Northeast 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 46°
Coverage of precipitation: None early. Widely scattered late at night.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
What action is required: Slow your vehicle on wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 6:01 PM
Moonrise: 8:49 AM
The phase of the moon: New
Moonset: 7:27 PM
.
October 30, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast: Mostly coudy with rain likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° SE MO 53° to 56° South IL 53° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 53° to 56° NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: North/northeast wind becoming southeast at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
What action is required: Slow your vehicles on wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 2 Low
Sunrise: 7:17 AM
.
Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy with rain likely. Chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 80% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
How confident am I that this forecast will verify: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 44° SE MO 36° to 42° South IL 36° to 40° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 40° West KY 38° to 40° NW TN 40° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: North 3 to 6 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 34° to 40°
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
What action is required: Slow your vehicle on wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunset: 5:59 PM
Moonrise: 9:58 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
Moonset: 8:11 PM
.
Thursday: High confidence. Cloudy with showers. Turning colder behind a cold front that will move west to east. Highs in the 53 to 56-degree range. South wind becoming west behind the front at 10 to 20 mph. Thursday night: Cloudy early. Rain ending as the evening wears on. Gusty winds. Turning colder. A freeze is likely by Friday morning. Low 25 to 30 degrees. Northwest wind 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Friday: Medium confidence . Some morning clouds. Clearing. Colder. A morning freeze. High temperature 50 to 55. West and northwest wind at 5 to 10 mph. Friday night: Mostly clear. A freeze is possible. Cold. Patchy fog. Low 28 to 32. Light wind.
Saturday: Medium confidence. Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds. Chilly. High 48 to 54. Saturday night: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. A freeze is possible. Low 30 to 35. Light wind.
Sunday: Medium confidence. Partly cloudy. High 53 to 56. Sunday night: Mostly clear. Chilly. Low 36 to 44. Variable wind 5 mph.
Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.
Click to enlarge
.
Wind forecast
Click the image to enlarge it.
.
Current conditions.
.
School Bus Stop Forecast
.
Click the graphic to view a larger size.
Weekend Camping Forecast
.
- Widespread rain will develop tonight into Saturday evening.
- Generally, 1.50″ to 2.50″ rain is anticipated. Swaths of 2.50″ to 4.00″ are likely to occur.
- Showers forming again on Tuesday and becoming likely Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Turning much colder Wednesday/Wednedsay night. A freeze is possible Thursday and Friday morning.
.
Agriculture Forecast
Click the graphic to view a larger size.
.
Storm Dates.
I will also show you dates that I believe have a chance of precipitation (past day nine). Do not hold me to them! Monitor the trends in the graphics.
Anything past day nine is very low confidence. Do not make plans based on this forecast.
.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **
CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.
During active weather check my handwritten forecast.
Missouri
** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **
CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.
During active weather check my handwritten forecast.
.
Illinois
** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **
CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.
During active weather check my handwritten forecast.
** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **
CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.
During active weather check my handwritten forecast.
** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **
CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.
During active weather check my handwritten forecast.
** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **
CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.
During active weather check my handwritten forecast.
.
Kentucky
** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **
CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.
During active weather check my handwritten forecast.
** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **
CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.
During active weather check my handwritten forecast.
** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **
CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.
During active weather check my handwritten forecast.
** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **
CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.
During active weather check my handwritten forecast.
** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **
CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.
During active weather check my handwritten forecast.
.
Tennessee
** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **
CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.
During active weather check my handwritten forecast.
** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **
CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.
During active weather check my handwritten forecast.
.
Thursday through Thursday: I am monitoring Saturday. There are some concerns that a few storms could be intense on Saturday. There are questions about instability. I am keeping an eye on the threat of severe weather. There is a chance of a tornado if CAPE develops. CAPE is basically energy for thunderstorms to tap into. Strong wind shear tomorrow. Be alert.
I am monitoring another system next Tuesday and Wednesday. Severe weather appears unlikely.
October and November weather can and often does produce severe weather. Keep this in mind over the next few weeks.
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
.
Severe Weather Risk Graphic (this is not for regular summer storms. This graphic is for severe thunderstorms)
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
Light green is not assigned a number. Light green is where storms may occur but should be below severe levels.
A severe storm is one that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado. One or more of those is defined as a severe thunderstorm.
The black outline is our local area.
.
Tomorrow’s outlook.
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk. Light green is not assigned a number.
.
Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for tornadoes, severe storms, and winter storms.
Log into your www.weathertalk.com
Click the personal notification settings tab.
Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.
.
Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.
.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.
48-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.
.
72-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.
Days one through seven added together. Seven-day rainfall totals.
- Heavy rain Friday night and Saturday. Flooding possible.
- A chance of precipitation Tuesday and Wednesday.
- Monitoring freeze chances next Thursday and Friday morning.
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.
.
Weather
.
Advice:
Avoid flooded roadways Friday night and Saturday.
Monitor the chance of a few thunderstorms on Saturday, as well.
.
Weather Forecast Analysis.
.
A heavy rain event is the focus of this discussion.
First, I want you to notice the dry slot.
The dry slot is an area to the east/southeast of an area of low pressure. It can shut down the rain or snow (depending on the season).
We will need to monitor the dry slot. Where the dry slot ends up is where there will be a longer period of rain-free conditions (after the initial band of rain).
Models do NOT agree on exactly where the dry slot will be. Some models have it east and some west. It will be near our region since the low will track near the Mississippi River.
.
Keep in mind there will be some showers today. The heavier rain, however, arrives tonight and will last into Saturday evening.
A widespread 1.5 to 2.5″ is anticipated. There will be bands of 2.5″ to 4.0″.
There is an unusual amount of moisture available for this system to tap into. As a mater of fact, PWAT values will be extremely high for late October.
What are PWAT values? They are a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere.
The EC model went bonkers with PWAT values. Over 2″ with a max of 2.7″. Those are extreme numbers. Tropical.
.
The NAM model is impressive (not as high as the EC). Still, these are big PWAT numbers.
.
All of that means that heavy rain is possible. Rain-rates will be high. Avoid flooded roadways.
The WPC/NOAA have us in a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall today and especially late tonight into Saturday.
.
Tonight/tomorrow. The yellow zone has the greatest chance of excessive rainfall totals. Some flooding is possible.
.
There will be sharp rises on area streams.
Here is what the WPC/NOAA is forecasting for rain totals. Broad-brushed.
You can see some big rain totals.
Click images on this page to enlarge them.
.
There is some concern that a few thunderstorms will form on Saturday, as well. Wind shear will be strong. IF a thunderstorm or two does develop then we will need to monitor it.
Tornadoes are possible if CAPE develops. CAPE is basically energy for thunderstorms to tap into.
I will keep a close eye on trends tomorrow. Make sure you are signed into your app.
The bottom-line is that if you have outdoor plans tonight or tomorrow then you should have a plan B. Widespread rain is likely.
Let’s look at a few models and their rainfall totals.
NAM
NAM 3K
GFS
GDPS
.
Our next weather maker arrives on Tuesday and Wednesday.
A few scattered light showers are possible on Tuesday before sunset.
Widespread rain will likely redevelop Tuesday night and Wednesday. Some of the rain could be moderate. At this time, severe weather appears unlikely.
Colder air then arrives as the front pushes across our region and an area of low pressure deepens to our north.
I am not forecasting accumulating snow. I can’t rule out a few snowflakes as the colder air arrives. For now, I left snow out of the forecast.
I will monitor trends in the guidance. That would be Wednesday night (if it occurred at all).
Either way, Wednesday into Friday will be colder. Highs on Thursday may remain in the 40s. Brrr.
A freeze is possible Thursday and Friday morning.
Rain totals will the mid-week event will likely range from 0.75″ to 1.5″. Still some time to iron out the details on that event.
Once again, models disagree on the details.
Here is the WPC rainfall totals from now through next Thursday night. Both events combined. Well, we need rain.
Here are the WPC forecast graphics for the six to ten and eight to fourteen-day period. This is for precipitation and temperatures.
Darker colors equal a higher chance of it happening. Deep red means a high chance that temperatures will be above normal. Dark blue means a high chance that temperatures will be below normal.
The light green colors represent a lower end chance of above-normal rainfall. Dark green means a high chance of precipitation being above normal.
The yellow/orange color means a high chance that precipitation will be below normal.
The 6 to 10-day outlook.
Precipitation
.
Temperatures
.
And the 8 to 14-day outlook.
Precipitation
Temperatures
.
.
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
Timestamp upper left.
Click the animation to expand it.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
.
Hrrr model guidance.
Click to enlarge this animation. Time-stamp upper left.
.
NAM model
Click to enlarge this animation. Time-stamp upper left.
.
NAM 3K model
Click to enlarge this animation. Time-stamp upper left.
.
GFS model
Click to enlarge this animation. Time-stamp upper left.
.
.
.These maps below update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.
Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.
*****
These are bonus videos and maps for subscribers. I bring these to you from the BAMwx team. I pay them to help with videos.
The Ohio and Missouri Valley videos cover most of our area. They do not have a specific Tennessee Valley forecast but they may add one in the future.
The long-range video is a bit technical. Over time, you can learn a lot about meteorology from the long-range video.
NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
I hire BAMwx to help with videos.
They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.
The Ohio Valley video does capture our region.
The long-range video does cover our region.
There may be some differences in the videos vs my forecast thoughts. Keep that in mind.
Ohio Valley video
.
This video is a bit more meteorologically technical. An in-depth discussion about the coming weeks.
Long Range VIdeo
The Missouri Valley Forecast Vide0
.
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Click to enlarge
.
Key Points:
- Heavy rainfall likely Sat. into the Tennessee & Ohio Valley. 2-3”+ of rain in spots.
- Much below normal temperatures for week 1 across the Plains and Central US.
- Data has persistently trended warmer on the East Coast in the short-term closer to the EPS solution.
- Focusing on where the cold air source is for our week 2 forecast (Stratospheric PV) as well as the –AAM state with some considerations to the MJO.
- Cold air can bleed further east for a time related to MJO phases 3-5 which will help dry things out a bit, however, we are warmer and wetter in the SE vs. data given recent tendencies.
Weeks 1/2 temperature outlooks:
.
Week 1:
- Extremely below normal temps favored for the Western Plains to Inner-Mountain West in week 1, much above normal on the East Coast due to storm-induced warmth.
- Wintry weather risks also possibly helping enhance the cold in the central US.
- Even despite a slightly warmer East, heating demand nationally is now well over the 10/30yr normals into early Nov. due to cold pushing into TX.
Week 2:
- We still kept parts of the SE warmer vs data in our week 2 outlook, vs current verifications of things recently and how week 1 has trended warmer here.
- We anticipate a displacement of the Polar Vortex into early November across the northern tier of the US, combined with MJO phase 2 into 3 keeping the central to northeast cooler.
- Risk: Brief MJO Phase 6 ahead and lack of blocking may present temporary warmer risks later week 2 to 3, however with the portion of the polar vortex a supply of cold may stay readily available and mitigate warmer risks at the same time, essentially the 2013 scenario we’ve been discussing.
Weeks 1/2 precipitation outlooks:
.
Week 1:
- Excessive rainfall likely from the Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley this weekend.
- Less active pattern in the Northern Plains.
- System next week has the potential to produce snowfall in the Plains and Midwest.
- Risk is a further NW track w/ both rain/snow given recent system trends.
Week 2:
- We are going a bit drier in the week 2 period to accommodate a slightly further east location of the cold air.
- We do think the southeast could be a bit warmer than data so we are staying wet on the east coast.
- With that being said, if we see a bigger –AAM/MJO Phases 3-6 influence there is a drier risk overall to the forecast.
- With cold forecast wintry chances will continue to increase in the Midwest/Plains.
Week’s 3/4 updated outlooks:
.
Temperature:
- No big changes to the forecast for the week’s ¾ period.
- The latest EPS Weekly supports our idea of Central US cold continuing as do the closest AAM analogs.
- The location of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex and a potential return to MJO Phase 1 forcing in this period combine with a falling AAM all support the cooler risks in the Central US.
- If the NAO can return to a negative state, this would present the risk for the northeast to trend cooler (like Winter Analogs). Conversely if the PV sets up further west it could open the door for more East Coast warmth like our overall MJO November analogs.
Precipitation:
- Given the risk for some southeast warmth, we are going to keep the Eastern US generally wetter than normal.
- With data suggesting a fast MJO progression through the maritime and then settling back into MJO phase 1, this also presents a wetter risk as MJO Phase 1 analogs are very wet in November.
- Given the persistent cooler risk in the Central US, these areas can be less active with the better storm track setting up east.
- Worth noting with the cold air source winter weather risks will likely become more prevalent in this period for the Plains, Midwest, perhaps even into the Ohio Valley.
Updated sub-seasonal pattern driver influences:
Updated seasonal pattern driver influences for December-January-February:
.
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange are above normal. Red is much above normal. Light blue and blue is below normal. Green to purple is much below normal.
This outlook covers October 25th through October 31st
Click on the image to expand it.
.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. Brown is below normal. Green is above normal. Blue is much above normal.
.
Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees
Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
.
This outlook covers November 1st through November 7th
Click on the image to expand it.
.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
.
Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are around 57 degrees
Normal low temperatures for this time of the year are around 38 degrees
Normal precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.60″ to 2.00″
This outlook covers November 8th through November 21st
Click on the image to expand it.
.
.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF NORMAL. For example, if your normal rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 10%, then that would mean 0.10″ of rain is anticipated.
.
Outlook definitions
EC= Equal chances of above or below normal
BN= Below normal
M/BN = Much below normal
AN = Above normal
M/AN = Much above normal
E/AN = Extremely above normal
.
Fall Outlook
September, October, and November Temperature outlook
.
.October
Temperature outlook.
.
Precipitation outlook
.
November
Click on the image to expand it.
.
.
December
Click on the image to expand it.
January
February
March
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page..
BAMwx has released its preliminary winter forecast. Keep in mind, what you really want to know is not covered in a general winter outlook. What you want to know is how much snow or ice will fall. That is not possible to predict.
The best long-range forecasters can do is to tell you above or below normal temperatures and precipitation.
This initial winter outlook indicates odds favor above-normal temperatures when everything is averaged out from November into March. That does not mean we won’t have cold weather. It just means when you average all of those months together we could end up above normal.
They indicate above-normal snowfall, as well.
Winter analogs. BAMwx found years that have a pattern similar to what we are currently experiencing. Those are called analogs. We can compare past years with the present.
Their analogs indicate colder than normal across portions of the central and northern United States. They indicate above normal temperatures along the West Coast south and east into Texas.
Blue and purple are below normal (bright green, as well). Yellow and orange are above normal.
Winter Precipitation
Click image to enlarge
Click image to enlarge.
Looking back at last year. None of the models handled last year all that well.
Upper air pattern.
Here is the BAMwx temperature forecast. This covers all of winter. They have us in the above normal temperature zone. Near normal just to our north. For now, they have this marked as a low confidence forecast.
Additional winter forecasts will be posted over the next couple of months. This is the preliminary outlook.
.
Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
.
Live lightning data: Click here.
.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
.
Did you know that you can find me on Twitter? Click here to view my Twitter weather account.
.
.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied the weather in our region since the late 1970s. I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.
My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and a Bachelor of Science (BS).
I am an NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County rescue squad. When asked, I assist Ballard and Massac Counties, as well.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory and WeatherTalk LLC.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
.
A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)
.
Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain #1 is the Director of the Oklahoma Chronological Survey. He is also an Associate Professor in the College of Atmospheric and Geographic Sciences at the University of Oklahoma. Dr. Kevin Kloesel, welcome to WeatherBrains!
Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain #2 is the President of Thor Guard Inc., a manufacturer of integrated lightning warning, lightning prediction, and internet-delivered weather systems. Bob Dugan, welcome to WeatherBrains!
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Dallas tornado/severe coverage controversy
- Astronomy Report with Tony Rice
- National Weather Round-Up
- and more!
.
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
.
Find Beau on Facebook! Click the banner.
.
Find Beau on Twitter! Share your weather photos! @beaudodson
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects? Not a subscriber? Becoming one at www.weathertalk.com
You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
