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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..
New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here..
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October 22, 2016
Saturday Night – Mostly clear. Not quite as cold.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 44-50 degree range.
Winds: Southwest at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 6:07 p.m.
Moonrise will be at –:– p.m. and moonset will be at 1:44 p.m. Last Quarter
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October 23, 2016
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. A few passing clouds. A little warmer.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 73-76 degree range.
Winds: Southwest at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 25 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:11 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:06 p.m.
UV index will be 6-7
Moonrise will be at 12:25 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:28 p.m. Waning Crescent.
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Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Cool.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 46-52 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds becoming north at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 24, 2016
Monday: Mostly sunny. Mild.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 70-75 degree range.
Winds: North and northeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:12 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:05 p.m.
UV index will be 6
Moonrise will be at 1:23 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:07 p.m. Waning Crescent.
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Monday Night: Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 44-46 degree range.
Winds: Northeast winds becoming east winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 25, 2016
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Mild.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 68-74 degree range.
Winds: East and southeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:13 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:03 p.m.
UV index will be 5-7
Moonrise will be at 2:24 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:42 p.m. Waning Crescent.
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Tuesday Night: Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 50-55 degree range.
Winds: South and southeast at 5-10 mph. Winds becoming more southerly overnight.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 26, 2016
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Warm. Perhaps breezy. Slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Low confidence.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some lightning and wet roadways. Low confidence.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 73-76 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 7-14 mph with higher gusts possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps isolated.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but I would monitor updated forecasts.
Sunrise will be at 7:14 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:02 p.m.
UV Index: 3-5 (depending on cloud cover)
Moonrise will be at 3:21 a.m. and moonset will be at 4:14 p.m. Waning Crescent.
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Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with a chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 53-56 degree range.
Winds: West at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updated forecasts.
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More information on the UV index. Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
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Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- Warming trend
- Calm weather
- Monitoring a cold front for Wednesday and Wednesday night
- Sustained cold not showing up in the charts. Not yet, at least.
- Patten flip towards mid-November?
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Calm weather is on tap for the region through at least Tuesday. A warming trend starts tonight and will last into Wednesday. Overnight lows on Friday dipped into the middle 30’s to lower 40’s across the entire region. Overnight lows tonight, Saturday night, will remain mostly in the 40’s.
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Sunday will deliver a beautiful day of weather. Temperatures will rise into the 70’s. Light winds. Plenty of sunshine. Enjoy.
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Watch what happens by Monday and Tuesday. A ridge builds into the region. A ridge is when the jet streams pulls back northward. This delivers warmer air to our region.
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Look at Wednesday. Another dip in the jet stream. That is the Wednesday cold front and low pressure. The trough on Wednesday is not as strong as the one currently over the region. Notice the jet stream is not pulling as far south or as pronounced.
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How much rain is NOAA forecasting over the coming days?
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No rain in the forecast through Tuesday night. I am monitoring Wednesday and Wednesday night for another cold front. Perhaps some showers or storms as it passes through the area.
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Sunday morning low temperatures
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Sunday afternoon 4 pm temperatures
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated
Sunday and Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Thunderstorms are possible.
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No major adjustments in this update.
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No significant weather concerns for the coming days. Fairly calm weather. Dry
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
