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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..
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October 19, 2016
The placement of a stationary front, over the next 12-18 hours, will be key to where the heavier rain totals are achieved. Most of the guidance is indicating the front will stall over portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Heaviest rain will fall along and north of the front. Several inches of rain will be possible.
Wednesday Night – Mostly cloudy. Increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage from northwest to southeast through the night. Best chance in the evening will be over northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern half of southern Illinois. Late tonight the shower and thunderstorm activity will develop and spread further and further south and east. A few storms could be intense. Locally heavy rain possible over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois (further north the more likely there will be some heavy rain totals).
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain. A few evening storms could be severe with high winds and hail. The severe threat would be from Poplar Bluff, MO towards Farminton, MO towards Mt Vernon, IL. Perhaps a bit south and east of there. The position of the frontal boundary will be key to the heavier storm potential.
Temperatures: Lows in the 56-64 degree range. Cooler behind the cold front. Warmer in front of the front. Temperatures will vary based on the location of the cold front.
Winds: Behind the cold front you can expect north and northeast at 4-8 mph. Gusts to 12 mph. Winds ahead of the front will be from the south and southeast.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~70%. IL ~ 70%. KY ~ 60% (mainly after 3 am) TN ~ 60% (mainly after 3 am)
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous. More coverage north vs south.
Is severe weather expected? A few evening storms could produce damaging winds and hail.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but I would monitor radars and updates. Rain is likely over our northern counties. That would include areas from Poplar Bluff, MO towards or north of Cape Girardeau, MO and then towards Carmi, IL. Lesser chances south and east of that line (early on, at least). Late tonight coverage will spread south and east into the rest of our region.
Moonrise will be at 9:29 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:55 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
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October 20, 2016
Thursday: Cloudy. Breezy, at times. Showers likely. A rumble of thunder possible. Rain should end from west to east through the day.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Small risk for lightning. Gusty winds. Rainfall totals of 0.10″ to 0.50″ will be the general rule. Heaviest totals for the whole event will be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Some areas may end up with very little rainfall.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range. Falling temperatures possible during the late morning and afternoon.
Winds: North and northeast at 10-20 mph. Gusty at times. Winds during the morning hours could be from the southeast over parts of Kentucky and Tennessee (ahead of the cold front) and they would then switch out of the north behind the front. Gusty winds.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 80%. IL ~ 80%. KY ~ 70% . TN ~ 80% (decreasing rain chances during the afternoon and evening)
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps numerous. Precipitation should end from west to east through the day.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments in this forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updated forecasts. Rain is a possibility.
Sunrise will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:10 p.m.
UV index will be 0-4.
Moonrise will be at 10:26 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:58 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
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Thursday Night – Any remaining showers will come to an end. Clearing with just a few clouds. Cooler. Autumn air returns. We will need to monitor for light frost. Low confidence on that subject.
What impact is expected? Perhaps a few remaining early evening showers.
Temperatures: Lows in the 38-44 degree range.
Winds: North and northwest winds at 4-8 mph. Winds becoming calm after midnight.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely the precipitation will have ended. A few showers possible early in the evening.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
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October 21, 2016
Friday: Mostly sunny and cooler. Autumn air. A few passing clouds.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Winds: North and northwest at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:00 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:08 p.m.
UV index will be 4-5
Moonrise will be at 11:25 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:54 p.m. Waning Gibbous.
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Friday Night – Mostly clear. Cool. Autumn temperatures. Let’s monitor for some 30’s by Saturday morning.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. I will monitor the frost potential.
Temperatures: Lows in the 38 to 44 degree range.
Winds: Northwest at 2-4 mph. Winds becoming calm.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 22, 2016
Saturday: Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds. Pleasant Autumn temperatures.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 65-70 degree range.
Winds: Southwest at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:10 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:07 p.m.
UV index will be 5-7
Moonrise will be at –:– p.m. and moonset will be at 1:44 p.m. Last Quarter
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Saturday Night – Mostly clear. Cool.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 40-45 degree range.
Winds: Southwest at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 23, 2016
Sunday: Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds. A little warmer.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 68-74 degree range.
Winds: Southwest at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:11 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:06 p.m.
UV index will be 5-6
Moonrise will be at 12:25 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:28 p.m. Waning Crescent.
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Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. Cool.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 45-50 degree range.
Winds: West at 5-10 mph. Winds may turn out of the north.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 24, 2016
Monday: Mostly sunny. Warmer.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 68-74 degree range.
Winds: North and northeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:12 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:05 p.m.
UV index will be 5-6
Moonrise will be at 1:23 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:07 p.m. Waning Crescent.
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Monday Night – Mostly clear. Not as cool.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 48-54 degree range.
Winds: North at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 25, 2016
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Mild.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 70-75 degree range.
Winds: East and southeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:13 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:03 p.m.
UV index will be 5-7
Moonrise will be at 2:24 a.m. and moonset will be at 3:42 p.m. Waning Crescent.
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Tuesday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 50-55 degree range.
Winds: South and southeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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More information on the UV index. Click here
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- Warm weather ending
- Showers and thunderstorm chances
- Dry weather Friday into Sunday
- Another system next week?
Our unusual warm spell is coming to an end, at least for now. Cooler air is already pushing south and east into Missouri and Illinois. This cooler air will overspread the entire region on Thursday. High temperatures on Thursday and Friday will likely remain in the 60’s. Perhaps a little warmer on Thursday over our far eastern and southern counties (Pennyrile area of western Kentucky and western Tennessee).
A stationary front is draped across portions of Missouri and Illinois (as of Wednesday afternoon). This front will move south and east on Thursday. Heavy showers and thunderstorms will accompany the stationary front over parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. The rest of the area can expect a few scattered showers and storms Wednesday evening.
Showers and storms will increase in coverage over the rest of our region late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Precipitation will end from west to east on Thursday afternoon. The precipitation should come to an end by Thursday evening. I can’t rule out some lingering light showers over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky Thursday evening.
Locally heavy rain is a possibility this afternoon into tonight from Poplar Bluff, MO towards or north of Cape Girardeau, Missouri and then northeast into southern Illinois. Areas along and north of a line from Carbondale, Illinois towards Harrisburg, Illinois will stand the best chance of heavy rain. Thunderstorms training over the same area could produce one to three inches of rain.
The WPC/NOAA indicates there is a slight risk for flash flooding in this green outlined zone. Several inches of rain will be possible in the green zone.
There remains some question about the placement of the stationary front on Wednesday evening. Monitor radars if you have concerns.
Here is what the HRRR model is showing for rainfall totals into tonight. Notice the placement is north vs south. Again, the placement of the front is key to verification of this map.
Rain totals per HRRR
Precipitation totals for the rest of the area will likely be in the 0.25″-0.50″ range with pockets of one inch. As always, thunderstorms can produce locally heavy rain.
There is a risk for a few severe thunderstorms into Wednesday evening. The risk zone would mainly be along and north of a line from Poplar Bluff, Missouri towards Cape Girardeau, Missouri and then northeast towards Mt Vernon and Carmi, Illinois. A smaller risk south and east of that line. The main concern would be hail and damaging winds.
The region should return to dry weather by Thursday night through at least Monday/Tuesday. Cooler temperatures, as well. Highs by Sunday, however, should rebound into the 70’s. Overnight lows on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday morning should drop into the 40’s. Chilly nights. At this time, frost appears unlikely. Let’s monitor the forecast for some upper 30’s, as well. If we were to dip into the 30’s then light frost would be a possibility. Low confidence on that subject.
I am monitoring additional shower and thunderstorm chances for next Wednesday. Long way off and plenty of time to adjust the numbers. Cooler air would follow that front, as well.
I am not tracking any sustained cold weather. Sustained meaning five or more days.
How much rain is NOAA forecasting over the coming days?
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This is what NOAA is officially forecasting for rain totals. Broad-brushed.
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Click the image to enlarge.
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Thursday morning low temperatures
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Thursday afternoon 4 pm temperatures
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Wednesday evening: A few thunderstorms are possible. A few storms could become severe with damaging winds and hail. Tornado risk is low, but not zero. The best chance for strong storms would be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Perhaps some lightning.
Friday and Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Sunday and Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated
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No significant changes in this update.
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A few strong storms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. The risk for severe weather appears fairly small, but not zero.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
