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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..
New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
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The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here..
October 17, 2016
Monday Night – Breezy. Mostly clear sky conditions. A few passing clouds. Mild for October.
What impact is expected? Gusty winds
Temperatures: Lows in the 65-70 degree range
Winds: South winds at 10-25 mph with gusts above 35 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 6:13 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 7:47 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:37 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
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October 18, 2016
Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance for isolated showers. Very warm and breezy. Near record highs.
What impact is expected? Breezy conditions on lakes and rivers.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 86-88 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 7-14 mph. Gusts to 30 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:06 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:12 p.m.
UV index will be 8-10.
Moonrise will be at 8:35 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:48 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
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Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A few showers and thunderstorms can’t be ruled out as moisture starts to increase in front of the incoming frontal boundary.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways. Low confidence on shower development Tuesday night.
Temperatures: Lows in the 63-66 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds becoming west at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps a couple of showers developing on Tuesday night. A thunderstorm possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 19, 2016
Wednesday: Increasing clouds. Warm. A chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. A frontal boundary will be near our region on Wednesday. There remains some uncertainty on just how fast the front will advance into our forecast counties. I will at least mention rain chances. Perhaps better chances for Wednesday night and Thursday. Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 80-85 degree range.
Winds: Southwest winds becoming west/northward as the front advances through the area. Winds will become north and northwest behind the front. Winds will be south and southwest ahead of the front. Wind speeds of 7-14 mph. Gusty along the front.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
Sunrise will be at 7:07 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:11 p.m.
UV index will be 3-5.
Moonrise will be at 9:29 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:55 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
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Wednesday Night – Mostly cloudy. Showers and a few thunderstorms likely. Turning cooler.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 50-55 degree range.
Winds: North and northeast at 4-8 mph. Gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~70%. IL ~ 70%. KY ~ 60% . TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a plan B. Rain will be possible on Wednesday night..
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October 20, 2016
Thursday: Cloudy. Showers likely. A rumble of thunder possible. Rain should end from west to east through the day.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Small risk for lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 65-70 degree range. Falling temperatures possible during the late morning and afternoon.
Winds: North and northeast at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 60%. IL ~ 60%. KY ~ 60% . TN ~ 60% (decreasing rain chances during the afternoon and evening)
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous. Precipitation should end from west to east through the day.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments in this forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updated forecasts. Rain is a possibility. This could cause problems for outdoor events.
Sunrise will be at 7:08 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:10 p.m.
UV index will be 0-4.
Moonrise will be at 10:26 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:58 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
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Thursday Night – Showers ending. Clearing with just a few clouds. Cooler. Autumn air returns.
What impact is expected? Perhaps a few remaining early evening showers
Temperatures: Lows in the 44-48 degree range.
Winds: Northeast at 4-8 mph. Winds becoming calm after midnight.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 20% . TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely the precipitation will have ended.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 21, 2016
Friday: Partly sunny and cooler. Autumn air.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 64-68 degree range.
Winds: North and northeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:00 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:08 p.m.
UV index will be 4-5
Moonrise will be at 11:25 p.m. and moonset will be at 12:54 p.m. Waning Gibbous.
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Friday Night – Mostly clear. Cool. Autumn temperatures.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 40-45 degree range.
Winds: Northeast at 2-4 mph. Winds becoming calm.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 22, 2016
Saturday: Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds. Autumn like temperatures.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 65-70 degree range.
Winds: North and northeast at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:10 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:07 p.m.
UV index will be 5-7
Moonrise will be at –:– p.m. and moonset will be at 1:44 p.m. Last Quarter
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Saturday Night – Mostly clear. Cool.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 42-46 degree range.
Winds: Northeast at 2-4 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 23, 2016
Sunday: Mostly sunny. A little warmer. Breezy?
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 68-74 degree range.
Winds: East at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:11 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:06 p.m.
UV index will be 5-7
Moonrise will be at 12:25 a.m. and moonset will be at 2:28 p.m. Waning Crescent.
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Sunday Night – Partly cloudy. Cool.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 45-50 degree range.
Winds: Southeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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More information on the UV index. Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- October heat
- Strong cold front is heading into the region
- Rain chances are on the rise
- Chilly temperatures by Thursday and Friday night
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There might be a few rumbles of thunder along the front. I don’t expect severe weather. I am also not anticipating heavy rainfall totals. Generally speaking, rainfall totals will range from 0.15″ to 0.40″. Locally heavier amounts are possible.
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How much rain is NOAA forecasting over the coming days?
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This is what NOAA is officially forecasting for rain totals. Broad-brushed.
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Click the image to enlarge.
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Tuesday morning low temperatures
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Tuesday afternoon 4 pm temperatures
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Wednesday and Thursday: Monitoring for another cold front. Perhaps a rumble of thunder. Severe weather is currently not anticipated.
Friday and Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated
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I did increase rain wording for Tuesday night. Otherwise, tweaked winds a bit. No other major changes.
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Windy conditions. No major concerns through Friday.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
