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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

Remember that weather evolves.  Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.

The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region.  These are the averages.—

 

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Friday night –  Frost possible.  Lower than normal confidence on low temperatures for Friday night.  Mostly clear sky conditions and light winds.
Temperatures:  Lows in the 32 to 38 degree range
Winds: North winds at 0-5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low to high on sky conditions and medium on temperatures.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
What impact is expected?  Frost possible.

 

Saturday – Mostly sunny and chilly.
Temperatures:  Highs in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s
Winds:  North and northeast winds at 4-8 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
What impact is expected?  No impacts.

 

Saturday night –  Mostly clear.  Chilly.  Frost likely and possible freeze conditions in some counties.
Temperatures:  Lows from 28 to 35 degrees.
Winds: Winds becoming calm.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
What impact is expected?  Some frost to contend with. Freeze possible.

 

Sunday – Mostly sunny and pleasant.
Temperatures:  Highs in the lower 60’s.
Winds:  East and southeast winds at 4-8 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
What impact is expected?  No impacts.

 

Sunday night –  Mostly clear.
Temperatures:  Lows ranging from 38 to 44 degrees.
Winds:  East winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
What impact is expected?  No impacts.

 

Monday – Partly cloudy and cool.
Temperatures:  Highs in the upper 60’s.
Winds:  South and southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
What impact is expected?  No impacts.

 

Monday night –  Clearing and cool.  Pleasant for October.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures:  Lows ranging from 48 to 54 degrees.
Winds:  South winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
What impact is expected?  No impacts.

 

Tuesday – Mostly sunny and nice.
Temperatures:  Highs in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s
Winds:  South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
What impact is expected?  No impacts.

 

Tuesday night –  Mostly clear and cool.  Some patchy fog possible.
Temperatures:  Lows ranging from 48 to 54 degrees.
Winds:  South winds at 5 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?   No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation?   0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
What impact is expected?  No impacts.

 

Wednesday – Partly cloudy.  Nice for October.
Temperatures:  Highs in the lower 70’s
Winds:  South and southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Is severe weather expected?  No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation?  None
What impact is expected?  No impacts.

 

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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

Highlights

1.  Cold air for Friday night into Sunday.
2.  Frost possible tonight (Friday night)
3.  Frost and/or freeze possible on Saturday night
4.  Dry weather conditions with drought conditions developing
5.  Cold front on Wednesday and Thursday appears weaker and drier
6.  I am watching for a possible tropical storm or hurricane to form in the Gulf of Mexico.  But, where will it go IF it forms?

Well, fall has arrived.  Our first frost of the season will occur on Friday night and Saturday night.  There remains some questions as to how low temperatures will drop both nights.  Sometimes these cold air events surprise forecasters with lower than anticipated temperatures.  I lowered my temperature forecast a few degrees for each night.  If you have sensitive plants then you may want to protect them.

The jet stream is diving southward from Canada.  That places us on the cold side of the jet.

Here is the Friday and Saturday night frost outlook.  Keep in mind where there is a sharp cut-off…there could still be some frost near those areas.  There has to be a cut off somewhere.  Northwest TN and far southern MO Bootheel is still questionable.

Friday night

You might can nudge that down into northwest Tennessee, as well.

And Saturday night

Dry weather will be the rule through the middle of the new work week.  This is good news for farmers and bad news for those in need of rain.

Fire departments are encouraging people to use caution when it comes to burning brush.

A killing frost will only cause more problems.  Dry grass and weeds would burn more easily.  Bottom line, use caution when it comes to burning fields, brush, or other items.

I have been watching a cold front for Wednesday and Thursday of next week.  This front was going to be our next best chance for rain.  The latest data is bringing that front in drier and drier.  If that is the case then once again we will miss out on a rain possibility.  I will continue to monitor the trends.

Let me show you a map or two from weatherbell.com   This is the GFS model.

This first weather map is for Saturday night.  The big H over our region is a Canadian high pressure center.  Cold high pressure.  This high will be responsible for our calm winds on Friday and Saturday night and the cold temperatures.

Moving forward to Monday morning.  The high pushes off to the east.  High pressure rotates clockwise.  Thus, southerly winds will develop over our region on Sunday night into Tuesday.  That will lead to a moderation in temperatures.

 

This is the Wednesday weather map.  An area of low pressure is moving across northern Illinois.  A cold front trails to the southwest.  The latest information indicates this front might be moisture starved as it moves through our local area.  Not the best news for those wanting rain.  Let’s monitor the trends.

Long range cycle:

Remember, I am monitoring October into the middle of November for the winter pattern.  At this point it is starting to look like dry weather will be a concern into winter.  However, we still have some time to go before the winter pattern completely sets up shop.  Let’s watch it.  The data continues to paint a more active weather pattern as we push later into October.

The seven day GFS model guidance indicates no rain in our region.  Rainfall scale is on the right side of the image.

Tropics?

One wild card in the forecast is the possible development of a tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico next week.  Nothing has formed, yet.  So, this is a forecast.  It does appear that conditions are favorable for the development of some type of tropical system.  I am watching it closely.

Here is a satellite photograph showing the disturbed area of weather that will push into the Gulf of Mexico.  Whether it develops is a long shot.   I circled the disturbance in yellow.  It is moving west/northwest.

Some of the world model guidance does push a system into our region with welcome rainfall.  Long shot and long way off.  Let’s keep an eye on it.

Here is the GFS model guidance.  Again, whether this would verify or not is a long shot this far out.  But, it is worth mentioning the potential of an event next week in the Gulf of Mexico.  Late season tropical system.

See the system along the Texas Coast?  That is the tropical storm or hurricane.

Moving forward later in the week (next Saturday night and Sunday).  It moves northward.  Again, this is just one models opinion.

Otherwise, rather calm and boring weather into the new work week.

 

WEEKEND FROST FORECAST

Saturday morning lows

Sunday morning lows

 

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Tweaked temperatures ever so slightly.  Otherwise, no real changes in the short term forecast.

 

Frost possible on Friday night and Saturday morning.  Frost and/or a freeze possible on Saturday night.  Protect sensitive plants.

The fire risk is increasing.  If we have a killing frost and/or freeze then vegetation will continue to dry out.  Fire danger increases.

Drought conditions may worsen over the coming week.  I am watching a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico next week.  We could use that rain.

 

Protect sensitive plants from a possible frost tonight.  A possible frost/freeze on Saturday night.

Avoid burning brush, if possible.  Fire risk is increasing.

 

The wild card in the forecast will be a cold front next Wednesday and Thursday.  Latest model guidance is showing it weaker and drier.  A second wild card will be the possible development of a tropical storm or hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.  It could move northward late next week.  We will need to monitor this, as well.

 

Frost likely Friday night and Saturday night.  Appears that forecast from a month ago is going to verify.

 

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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

No rain through at least Wednesday of next week.

 

Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Thunderstorm threat level will be ZERO on Friday through Tuesday.

.
Friday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Monday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday:  Monitoring for some thunderstorms on Wednesday or Thursday

I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page

 

Let’s take a look at some winter data.  I will keep adding to this over the coming weeks.  

One of my big concerns is how dry September and October have been over our local counties.  This is a concern.  I do believe in repeating patterns.  Typically October and November set the stage for the winter.  Let’s hope we start picking up more precipitation than we have been.

Let me show you some NOAA data.  They basically make their winter forecast 100% based on El Nino.  Personally I don’t like that approach, but every forecaster has their own method.  I believe that every El Nino is unique and is certainly not the only factor in a winter forecast.

With that said here are some typical El Nino graphics

Strong southern jet stream.  I agree with that.  Potentially dry in our region.  I am unsure about that.

Then there is this map

What would a typical El Nino winter look like?  Above normal temperatures over the northern United States.  Below normal precipitation in and near our region.  Again, this is what NOAA puts out.

My thoughts below:

Keep in mind that seasonal forecasts are more for fun than anything else.  No meteorologist can forecast details for the winter.  Will we have one big snowstorm?  Will we have a couple of big snow events?  It is the details that you care about.  The details can’t be forecast.

However, with that said…meteorologists can forecast some general ideas for an upcoming season.

As you may have read, I am leaning towards a colder than normal winter.  But, I am struggling with precipitation.  A powerful southern jet stream is forecast for the winter months.  We typically have two branches of the jet.  A northern branch and a southern brand.  That southern branch can produce some nasty weather conditions…including heavy snow, ice, and severe weather.

But, the real question will be the placement of the southern branch in relation to the northern branch.  When the two combine you can experience some of your bigger snowstorms.

The models are showing a drier than normal winter for our region.  Below normal precipitation.  Hopefully this won’t be the case.  I don’t like to enter spring in drought.  We have already experienced drier than normal conditions over Kentucky and Tennessee over the past month or so.  October has been dry, thus far.  And, that looks to continue.

Normally we start thinking about severe weather around the third and fourth week of October.  Also, we typically have one or two severe weather episodes in November.  Too soon to know if that will occur this year.

I am watching a storm system around the 14th-20th.

Back to the winter discussion…

A lot of models are showing below normal temperatures for our region.  Let me show you a few charts.

These particular forecast maps are from a Canadian model.  Images are from Tropical Tidbits.

This first map is for December.  The blue indicates lower than normal 500 mb heights.  The red indicates above normal heights.  Lot of blue across the southern United States.  That could be an indication of stormy weather.

This next map is for January

This next map is for February

This next map is for March

Let’s take a look at temperature anomaly maps

This first map is for December.  Blue colors represent below normal temperatures.  I am thinking this could be another back loaded winter.  Perhaps the harshest winter conditions will be in February and March.  Same as last year.

Here is the January temperature anomaly map from this particular model guidance.

This next map is for February.  That is a very cold look for February.

And, let’s take at look at March.

So, what does this mean?

Again, long range forecasting is more for fun than anything else.  But, the charts do point towards a cold winter for our region.  Perhaps the coldest part of the winter will be February into March.  Or, the worst winter conditions will be during that time.

Again, this is just one set of data.  There are a lot of other data sets to look over.

I like to move through the Month of October before banking on a winter forecast.

Let’s keep monitoring.

NOAA HAS RELEASED THEIR WINTER FORECAST

NOAA has released their winter forecast.  I have been forecasting below normal temperatures for our region.  But, I have not banked on precipitation, just yet.  The long range cycle is still in the developing stages.  The long range cycle typically develops during October and November.  It is a repeating pattern that will last through the winter.  Until we know what that cycle looks like then making a long range forecast for December into March is difficult, at best.

I am concerned about our dry weather.  October has been dry, thus far.  Not the best way to start out the next cycle.  However, we still have 4-6 more weeks to go.  Will the weather become more active during that time period?  Frequent cold fronts and frequent precipitation would be a strong clue as to what will happen in December-March.

Here is what NOAA said today.

This first map is their temperature outlook.  They are forecasting above normal temperatures across the northern United States.  In other words, the odds favor above normal temperatures.  The blue area, to our south, represents below normal temperatures.

I would have brought the blue further north into our region.  It is my forecast opinion that we will have a colder than normal winter.  That is when December into early March is averaged out.  That does not mean every month will be colder than normal.  It simply means the odds favor it averaging out to below normal.  We will see how it goes.

I base those ideas off the warm waters off the West Coast of the United States.  The last few winters have provided us with a lot of cold air.  If the high pressure in Canada shifts into western Canada then we will have plenty of cold air.

Our region is in white.  What is NOAA saying about our region?  They are saying there is a 50/50 chance for above or below normal temperatures.

Let’s look at NOAA’s precipitation forecast.  They are forecasting the southern United States to have a wetter than normal winter.  Drier than normal for much of the northern United States into the Great Lakes.  As I have said before, I am not ready to bank on a precipitation outlook.

Our region is in white.  What is NOAA forecasting for our region?  They are saying a 50/50 chance for above or below normal precipitation.

Remember, forecasters can’t actually tell you what you really want to know. How much snow will fall at my location. Will we have an ice storm. How many winter storms will impact our region.  If someone tells you that it is going to snow 8″ on January 15th then take it with a grain of salt.  Trust me, no forecaster can accurately forecast specific weather events months in advance.  Key word being specific.

We can have a drier than normal winter and a colder than normal winter and still be slammed by one or two big winter storms.

 

 

For the first time the NWS will be conducting town hall meetings.  If you would be interested in attending a town hall meeting then here is the schedule.  Click image for a larger view.

 

 

Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

Here are some current forecast hydrographs.  These will be updated each day with new information.

 

 

We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

NOTE:  Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes).  Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.

Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page

 

Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

 

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.

My resume includes:

Member of the American Meteorological Society.

NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. 

Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. 

In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. 

Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

• Communicate in simple terms
• To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
• Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
• Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
• Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.