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This forecast covers the counties in red. The counties in orange are covered by the forecast discussion further down in the blog.
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October 15, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. The best chance for sunshine will be southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Some clouds for the rest of southern Illinois into western Kentucky. We will have to see how quick they move out. Cool temperatures. Fallish temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65
Winds: North winds at 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms (early in the morning)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Chilly. Patchy fog. It appears that widespread frost is unlikely, but I will monitor the trends for overnight lows. There is a small risk that temperatures might be colder. Dew points will be quite low. If frost were to occur, it would most likely be over southern Illinois and perhaps northwest Kentucky (closer to the Evansville area).
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 38 to 44 KY ~ 40 to 45
Winds: Light winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms. Small risk of frost.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 17, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Pleasant.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70
Winds: Winds becoming southerly at 0 to 5 mph with gusts to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Not quite as cool. Patchy fog again possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 42 to 44 IL ~ 40 to 45 KY ~ 42 to 46
Winds: Light winds
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lower visibility if fog forms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 18, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Pleasant.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74 IL ~ 68 to 74 KY ~ 68 to 74
Winds: Winds becoming southerly at 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Not quite as cool. Patchy fog again possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 44 to 48
Winds: Southerly winds at 5 to 10 mph with higher gusts possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 19, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Pleasant.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL ~ 70 to 75 KY ~ 70 to 75
Winds: Southerly at 0 to 5 mph with gusts to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 52 IL ~ 48 to 52 KY ~ 48 to 52
Winds: Southerly winds at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 20, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Pleasant.
Temperatures: MO ~ 75 to 80 IL ~ 75 to 80 KY ~ 75 to 80
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 56 IL ~ 54 to 56 KY ~ 54 to 56
Winds: Southerly winds at 6 to 12 mph increasing late.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 21, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Pleasant. Breezy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82 IL ~ 76 to 82 KY ~ 76 to 82
Winds: South at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty winds.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturay Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some increase in clouds late. A chance for showers after midnight. Timing of the front is still questionable.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 58 to 64 KY ~ 58 to 64
Winds: South winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways possible after midnight.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered late. Timing of the front is questionable.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 22, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Cloudy. A 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 73 to 76 IL ~ 73 to 76 KY ~ 73 to 76
Winds: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning and wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps widespread
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates and have a plan B.
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 58 to 64 KY ~ 58 to 64
Winds: West and northwest winds 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous. Still questionable as to when the cold front departs.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Tuesday school bus stop forecast
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The National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm is one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Monday night through next Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Highlights
- Beautiful week of weather ahead of us
- Light frost possible Monday night/Tuesday morning
- Another cold front possible next Sunday
The week ahead.
Quiet weather for the region. Nice days and cool nights. Dry conditions through Saturday.
We will have a chance for patchy light frost early Tuesday morning. Many areas will dip into the upper 30’s to lower 40’s. A few of the favored cold spots could dip into the lower 30’s. It is not uncommon to have a wide range of temperatures on clear cool nights.
Frost is not anticipated the rest of the week.
See the long range discussion for the rest of the outlook.
Temperature Forecast
Monday night low temperatures
Favored cold spots will dip into the 35 to 40 degree range. Keep that in mind.
Tuesday high temperatures
Tuesday night low temperatures
Wednesday high temperatures
Wednesday low temperatures
Dewpoint scale
Dew points are what control how you feel outside.
Tuesday dew points
Wednesday dew points
Long range forecast discussion
Our next chance for active weather will arrive on Sunday. A cold front should enter the region from the west.
Showers will be possible along the front.
Otherwise, quiet weather between now and then.
Here is the GFS model guidance with our next cold front. The GFS brings the front into the area on Sunday afternoon and night. Confidence on timing is medium.
It is probable that there will be a cold front on Sunday/Sunday night. The timing is the question mark.
This map is for Sunday at 1 PM. You can see the rain to our west.
Some of the models are a bit faster with bringing the front into the region. Some are slower.
Monday 1 AM. GFS guidance placement of rain showers.
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I have studied weather, in our region, since the late 1970’s. I have 40 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
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