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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog..
New! Video page on the main Weather Talk web-site.
I am posting videos each day on the WeatherTalk website.
The videos can be found under the BeauCast tab. Click here..
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WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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October 14, 2016
Friday Night – Mostly cloudy. A few lingering showers possible over western Kentucky and western Tennessee. Cool. Patchy fog possible late tonight.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways. Small risk for lightning. Low visibility in fog.
Temperatures: Lows in the 55-60 degree range
Winds: Southeast winds becoming south winds at 3-6 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 20%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 40% . TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered early and then ending from southwest to northeast.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset will be at 6:17 p.m.
Moonrise will be at 5:40 p.m. and moonset will be at 5:04 Waxing Gibbous.
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October 15, 2016
Saturday: Morning clouds with drizzle and fog. Clouds may be slow to leave. Perhaps partly sunny during the afternoon.
What impact is expected? Low visibility.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 74-78 degree range. Perhaps higher if we can pull off a bit more sun.
Winds: South winds at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Patchy drizzle.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:03 a.m. and sunset will be at 6:15 p.m.
UV index will be 6-8. Moderate to high.
Moonrise will be at 6:19 p.m. and moonset will be at 6:13 a.m. Full moon.
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Saturday Night – Patchy fog possible. Mostly clear. Perhaps a few clouds over our northern counties.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. I will be monitoring rain to our north.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60-65 degree range
Winds: South winds at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 20%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 16, 2016
Sunday: Mostly sunny. A few clouds from time to time. Windy. Isolated (if any at all) shower/storm chance from Farmington, MO towards Mt Vernon, IL. It may remain dry.
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Will monitor the storm system to our north.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 80-85 degree range.
Winds: South winds at 10-20 mph. Gusts to 25+ mph possible.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:04 p.m. and sunset will be at 6:15 a.m.
UV index will be 8-10.
Moonrise will be at 7:01 p.m. and moonset will be at 7:25 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
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Sunday Night – Mostly clear.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 62-66 degree range
Winds: South and southwest winds at 4-8 mph. Gusts to 12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 17, 2016
Monday: Partly sunny. Very warm with near record highs. Windy.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 85-90 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 10-20 mph. Gusts to 30 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:05 p.m. and sunset will be at 6:13 a.m.
UV index will be 6-8.
Moonrise will be at 7:47 p.m. and moonset will be at 8:37 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
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Monday Night – Mostly clear sky conditions.
What impact is expected? None
Temperatures: Lows in the 62-66 degree range
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 0%. IL ~ 0%. KY ~ 0% . TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 18, 2016
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. A few patchy clouds.
What impact is expected? Most likely none
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 84-88 degree range.
Winds: South and southwest winds at 10-20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 10%. IL ~ 10%. KY ~ 10% . TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Most likely none.
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:06 p.m. and sunset will be at 6:12 a.m.
UV index will be 5-7.
Moonrise will be at 8:35 p.m. and moonset will be at 9:48 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
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Tuesday Night – Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60-65 degree range
Winds: Southwest winds becoming west at 8-16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps some scattered storms
Is severe weather expected? No
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 19, 2016
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 80-85 degree range.
Winds: North and northeast at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 40%. IL ~ 40%. KY ~ 40% . TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 7:07 p.m. and sunset will be at 6:11 a.m.
UV index will be 3-6.
Moonrise will be at 9:29 p.m. and moonset will be at 10:55 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
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Wednesday Night – Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: Lows in the 50-55 degree range.
Winds: Northeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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October 20, 2016
Thursday: Cloudy. Showers possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 70-75 degree range.
Winds: North and northeast at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~ 30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Perhaps scattered
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Sunrise will be at 7:08 p.m. and sunset will be at 6:10 a.m.
UV index will be 2-4.
Moonrise will be at 10:26 p.m. and moonset will be at 11:58 a.m. Waning Gibbous.
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Thursday Night – Cloudy. A chance for showers.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Temperatures: Lows in the 50-55 degree range.
Winds: Northeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? MO ~30%. IL ~ 30%. KY ~ 30% . TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:
Is severe weather expected?
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments in the forecast are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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More information on the UV index. Click here
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The weekend forecast is sponsored by Farmer and Company Real Estate. Click here to visit their site.
Sunday’s rain chances will mainly be from Farmington, MO towards Mt Vernon, IL. It may remain dry everywhere. Small precipitation chances.
Farmer & Company Real Estate is proud to represent buyers and sellers in both Southern Illinois and Western Kentucky. With 13 licensed brokers, we can provide years of experience to buyers & sellers of homes, land & farms and commercial & investment properties. We look forward to representing YOU! Follow us on Facebook, as well
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days
- WELL above normal temperatures
- Small rain chances Saturday night and Sunday (mostly our far far northern counties). Small chance.
- Record highs on Monday?
- Cold front by the middle of next week
The main weather story, for the next few days, will be warm weather. Temperatures on Saturday through at least Tuesday will range from 82-88 degrees. The warmest day should be on Monday. Perhaps temperatures will rise into the 84-88 degree range on Monday.
Rain chances are limited through Tuesday.
A few lingering showers possible tonight (Friday night). A small chance for a storm late Saturday night and Sunday (mostly from Farmington, MO towards Mt Vernon, IL)
Fog and patchy drizzle will be possible late Friday night into Saturday morning. It may take some time for the fog to dissipate. Keep that in mind. Temperatures on Saturday will be highly dependent on the fog mixing out.
A cold front should enter our region by Wednesday. This front could be the focus for at least a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Confidence is rather low on how the Wednesday through Friday forecast develops. Let’s keep an eye on it. Some of the guidance shows heavy rain. Just too soon to bite one way or another.
Temperatures should cool down a bit by Wednesday or Thursday. The cooler air might last several days.
There is a chance for a stronger cold front the last week of October. Frost? Perhaps. Still early to make a call.
I hope you have a great weekend.
How much rain is NOAA forecasting over the coming days?
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Most of the rain will stay to our north on Saturday night and Sunday.
Perhaps additional rain chances by Wednesday and Thursday.
Here is the forecast rainfall totals for Saturday night and Sunday. Mostly to our north. Slight chance in our region.
Here is the second rain event Wednesday into Friday. This map will change. Still a bit early to know the placement of the best rain probabilities. This gives you an idea.
Saturday morning low temperatures
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Saturday afternoon 4 pm temperatures.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday and Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday: A chance for thunderstorms over our northern counties. Perhaps showers vs storms. Can’t rule out lightning. Most areas will remain dry.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Wednesday and Thursday: Monitoring for another cold front. Storms are possible, but confidence this far out is low.
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No major changes
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No major concerns.
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. I hold a Bachelor’s of Science in Geo-sciences with a concentration in Broadcast Meteorology. I graduated from Mississippi State University.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015
Meteorologist for the McCracken County Rescue Squad 2015-current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
